New evidence of labor-market weakening from Bick & Blandin's quasi-CPS.
Share of working-age adults employed fell an estimated 1.8 percentage points between June & July #JobsReport ref. weeks.
Caveat: the series diverged from the official one in May but tracked in June.
Finds continued decline in the working-age unemployment rate, but improvement greatly slowed from the prior month: -0.5 pp to mid-July versus -4.7 pp to June.
Signals total hours down
Among working-age Americans who were working in February, they estimate that a THIRD had lower labor market earnings last week than in Feb, while 13% had higher earnings.
Two-thirds of income loss came from losing jobs; one-third from reduced wages or hours among still-employed.
Source:
sites.google.com/view/covid-rps/
Many signals point to stalled improvement in the labor market, as discussed in this thread.
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