Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #JobsReport

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1/15 *Thread*🧵US Housing Market 2023: An investors outlook🏠

Key trend: Low supply, strong demand. Let's explore why investing in this market cycle could yield strong returns.
#USHousingMarket #RealEstateInvesting #EconomicTrends Image
2/15
US added 339,000 jobs in May '23, surpassing predictions of 190,000. Unemployment rate is at a near 50-year low despite being up to 3.7%, above the 3.5% forecast. A robust labor market is fundamental to a thriving housing market.
#JobsReport #Unemployment Image
3/15 Interest rates are rising fast, yet the labor market is holding strong. The strong labor market translates into steady demand for housing, maintaining a positive outlook for property investors.
#InterestRates #LaborMarket
Read 16 tweets
Last month, the US saw the lowest unemployment rate for African Americans in US history, 4.7%.

This month, the rate rose to 5.6%. But it’s still the lowest black unemployment rate for a May #JobsReport in US history.

BLS.gov
Series LNS14000006
In only 4 of the 48 months of Trump’s term was black unemployment as low or lower than the current 5.6% rate.

In 08/2019, it was 5.3%
In 09/2019, it was 5.4%
In 10/2019 and 11/2019, it was 5.6%
We are 27 full months into the Biden administration and, already, there have been three months in Biden’s term so far which the black unemployment rate has been less than its current 5.6%

01/23 - 5.4%
03/23 - 5.0%
04/22 - 4.7%
Read 4 tweets
Job market defying gravity in April:

*253,000 jobs added, above expectations though big negative revisions to last 2 months
*Unemp drops to 3.4%. Black unemp at record low 4.7%
*Wage growth jumps to 4.4% YoY

There's still heat in the job market #JobsReport 1/
Employers added 253,000 jobs, a slower pace than much of 2022, but Feb & Mar were downwardly revised by 149,000. Post-revisions, the start of the year was much slower than originally reported, but job gains remain healthy.

#JobsReport 2/ Image
The unemployment rate ticked back down to 3.4%, tying the recovery low. Ties the pre-pandemic low from 2019 and before that, we hadn't seen that low level since 1969.

#JobsReport 3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport was very solid, but like is often the case in the movies, it’s very hard for the sequel (today’s report) to match such an unexpected hit (January’s revised 504,000 jobs gained).
Still, a nonfarm #payroll gain of 311,000 jobs is quite good and having 815,000 jobs created so far this year after the #economy has already created 12 million #jobs over the past two years is pretty amazing in its own right.
Further, the 3-month moving average of 351,000 jobs, after a 12-month moving average of 362,000 jobs gained per month is also pretty remarkable, particularly after the market-implied pricing of the terminal #FedFunds rate has move up 500 basis points (bps) in a year.
Read 17 tweets
@PwC @PwCUS just released their 2023 Annual Global CEO Survey — here's a thread of the top takeaways from the survey, including the fact that "40% of CEO's don't think their companies will be 'economically viable' in the next 10yrs"... 🧵/👇🏼

#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics
1/🧵 "Roughly 40% flagged the transition to new energy sources and supply chain disruption." @PwC @PwCUS

#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech
2/🧵 "#inflation and #macroeconomic volatility stand out more prominently than other key threats in the next 12 months than over the next five years." @PwC @PwCUS

#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech #CPI
Read 11 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport was a clear indication that #LaborMarket dynamics are softening. For example, the 3-mo. moving average of nonfarm #payroll growth sits at 247k jobs, after a higher-than-expected print of 223k jobs for Dec, in contrast to 2022’s average mo. #job gain of 375k.
We have witnessed a marked deterioration in temporary help services in recent months, and a slowing in #wage growth in December, which both highlight the relative slowdown in the labor #market overall, even as the #services sector remains quite buoyant.
Yet, while the softening trend is clear, and the momentum of #hiring is slowing in a significant way, it is equally clear that we are far from what could be described as a demand-reducing weakening of #labor and #wage conditions.
Read 16 tweets
Last #jobsreport for 2022 out today shows in Dec:
*223,000 jobs added, down modestly from 256,000 in Nov
*Unemp down to 3.5% + LFP up 0.1pp
*Wage growth decelerates to 4.6%

Overall, a nice gift to end 2022 with measured slowing getting us closer to a soft landing.

1/
Payroll growth slowed to 223,000 in December 2022, roughly in line with expectations.

With the exception of July, jobs growth has been steadily and gradually declining through much of 2022.

#jobsreport 2/ Image
Across 2022, there were 4.5 million jobs added, the 2nd highest annual level since 1940 after 2021 when 6.7 million jobs were added.

In large part, the job gains in 2021 & 2022 were about recovering from Covid. But we're now exceeding pre-pandemic job levels.

#jobsreport 3/ Image
Read 13 tweets
Despite modest negative revisions in the prior two months (-28k), the December #jobsreport beat expectations on job growth for the past month at +223,000 new jobs create as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. bls.gov/news.release/a…
It's a strong jobs report but closely aligned with expectations, which were for +200k last month. The unemployment rate was expected to move from 3.6 to 3.7 and instead moved to 3.5. Basically, it's in line with what was expected, which is why the Fed is still mad.
Professor Wolfers is smarter than me and he's putting a high gloss finish on the jobs data. You can definitely make an unambiguously good case! Anyone who says this is a bad report (or that it was expected to be bad) is stupid or just flat lying.
Read 4 tweets
(Thread)
9 things to expect from tomorrow's Dec #JobsReport - will also provide exact numbers and snap reax when data drops:

1. Huge double counting in headline number
2. Hemorrhaging of full-time jobs
3. Continued gap between household and establishment surveys
4. Large number of people with multiple jobs
5. Small number of people self-employed
6. Weak labor force participation artificially depressing unemployment rate
7. Weakness in manufacturing and construction
8. Annual earnings growth below inflation
9. Huge downward seasonal adjustment (30% more than normal) because BLS effectively front-loaded jobs in 2021
Read 3 tweets
A late, but hopefully thoughtful thread on the jobs report. I do not see the labor market as quite as tight as a first read of this report would suggest. [1/12]
#UMPovertySolutions, @fordschool, #JobsReport
It’s clear that wages are on fire! And I agree with @jasonfurman that this is a very worrying aspect of this report. But let’s consider some others. [2/12]
@jasonfurman Job growth is largely being driven by two sectors: leisure and hospitality and health and education services. These two sectors suffered a disproportionate number of pandemic-driven layoffs and a very lackluster early-pandemic recovery throughout 2020 and much of 2021. [3/12] Image
Read 12 tweets
The Fed’s actions to lower inflation will take time to fully show up in the labor market, but the slowing job growth in today’s #JobsReport suggests the start of its impact. Policymakers should be preparing measures now to relieve hardship if unemployment begins to rise. 1/14
Well-designed, targeted measures will not interfere with the Fed’s efforts to address inflation. 2/14
Employers added 263k jobs in September with revisions of 11k in July and August. Total (private plus government) jobs are 514k above Feb ’20 pre-recession levels with private jobs up 1.1mm and government jobs down 597k, 309k of that deficit in local gov’t education. 3/14 Image
Read 14 tweets
The job market is slowing modestly, but is still running at a healthy clip:

Sep's #JobsReport shows 263,000 job gains, tying the slowest rate of jobs growth since April 2021.

The unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent after a surprise jump in Aug.

#jobsreport 1/
Payroll employment grew by 263,000 in September, tying the slowest rate of growth since April 2021. However, that's still well above pre-pandemic levels when jobs growth was averaging <200,000/month.

#jobsreport 2/
Job gains were a little more mixed by industry this month. Service industries led job gains though some sectors saw job losses. Some notable smaller industries:

Physicians offices: +10.2k
Home health care: +10.6k
Hospitals: +27.5k

Truck transportation: -11.4k

#jobsreport 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jobs day tomorrow!!!
What am I hoping to see?
Some signs of life in stalled public sector employment!
epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
Over the last few months, we’ve seen signs of labor market cooling (albeit from a very strong base).

Some examples:
- the historic decline in job openings in August
More signs of cooling:
- moderating wage growth
epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
- employment losses in interest-rate sensitive jobs
Read 16 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport revealed an #economy that is producing #jobs at a slower pace than it has over the prior several months.
That said, a historic number of jobs have been created in this recovery since the fall of 2020, so a slowing in the pace of #growth isn’t unexpected.
Even with today’s somewhat slower rate of #hiring at 315,000 jobs for the month of August, the 3-month and 6-month average of #payroll gains has been 378,000 and 381,000 jobs, respectively, which is clearly indicative of slowing today from a point of strength.
Read 12 tweets
The job market is falling back to trend:
Aug's #JobsReport shows 315,000 job gains, slower & more consistent w/ softer spring gains, moderating after Jul's blockbuster report

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, but on the back of strong labor force gains.
Job gains fell back to trend in August, w/ 315,000 jobs added, more in line with the slower job gains from the spring.

July's blockbuster job gains seem like a positive fluke, though they largely held up to revisions, revised down only 2,000.

#jobsreport 2/ Image
Unfortunately, today's revisions pushed July's payroll employment below pre-pandemic levels, but no worries, instead we hit the milestone in August instead. As of August 2022, payroll employment is back to pre-pandemic levels.

#jobsreport 3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Happy #JobsDay.

At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.

Forecasts’ center:
+318K jobs
Steady at 3.5% unemployment rate
Biggest question in economy:

How quickly can we raise supply? Keep global communities healthy & vibrant. Bring more labor & capital to production & boost productivity. Success means more consumption & lower prices.

Failure means painful demand reductions via Fed.
Increased supply comes if employers improve jobs fast enough to attract people they say they want to hire off sidelines.

Since pre-pandemic, corporate profit margins grew 35%, much faster than prices (+13%) or private-sector hourly labor costs (+10%).
Read 21 tweets
Despite impressive job growth, labor market slack remains.
The employment level continues to flatline (total and prime age)
edi.bard.edu/research/notes/
Labor market flows indicate a slowdown.
We watch a few ratios that tell us the distribution of who gets jobs:
fewer people who were outside the labor force and slightly more who were officially unemployed (this ratio dipped for the first time in 2 years)
Third, under-employment remains elevated.
Read 5 tweets
The #JobsReport came in at 372,000 jobs gained, the #unemployment rate at 3.6%, which was coupled with #wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year: all solid numbers in a historic context.
Still, when taken in the context of much of the #economic data coming in, last week’s #employment report reemphasized two key tenets of the economy and consequently of #investment markets: 1) the U.S., and indeed the global economy, is tangibly slowing…
…and 2) we are probably past the #employment peak and will likely witness #LaborMarket slowing in the back half of the year.
Read 11 tweets
June's #JobsReport shows the job market holding steady despite recession fears. Job gains slowed modestly to 372,000, beating expectations, and unemployment held flat at 3.6% for the 4th month in a row.

This is still a hot labor market even if the broader economy is cooling.

1/
Job gains cooled only modestly in June, beating expectations. Job gains overall seem to have shifted into a lower gear in the last few months, but recall that in 2019's hot job market, monthly job gains averaged 164k. This is still a healthy clip.

#jobsreport 2/
Most industries added jobs in June in broad-based gains across the board. A few industry stories:
1. Despite concerns about rotation from goods to services, job gains returned in #retail (+15.4k) and held strong in leisure & hospitality (+67k)

#jobsreport 3/
Read 12 tweets
U.S. job openings dropped to 11.3 million in May, showing signs of cooling even though demand still remains well above pre-recession levels. Even if the job market is cooling from white hot to red hot, it's still hot.

#JOLTS 1/ Image
The drop in job openings was primarily driven by professional & business services (-325,000) and #manufacturing (-208,000). Prof & biz services openings dropped 14% MoM as hiring freezes crimped demand & pushed it back to late-2021 levels.

#JOLTS 2/ Image
Manufacturing job openings dropped by 208,000 or 20% MoM in May, though labor demand in manufacturing has been more volatile, so May is still roughly consistent with levels we've seen for much of 2021–2022.

#JOLTS 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Back in April 2019, as Trump’s reckless trade policies had already plunged US #manufacturing into recession, the Carnival-Barker-in-Chief continued his hyping of the “Trump Economy” by tweeting “JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!” to celebrate the creation of 196,000 #jobs in March 2019. (1/x)
Trump's “JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!” tweet ignored the the fact that when Obama was President, Trump responded to a sub-200,000 jobs report by telling us it was “not a good sign” and “we could be facing another #recession.” (2/x)
The Obama-Biden recovery powered on for several years beyond Trump’s 2012 prediction of recession. It was an expansion strong enough even to survive 3 years of Trump’s corruption and incompetence. In July 2019, the Obama-Biden recovery became the longest US expansion ever. (3/)
Read 17 tweets
Today's #JobsReport shows a continuing healthy recovery from the pandemic recession as payroll employment came in at 428,00 jobs added. The unemployment rate held steady though the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio ticked down.
bls.gov/news.release/p…
While the share of the population with a job ticked down slightly in April, it has been trending strongly in the right direction for months. I'm optimistic this will simply be a blip on the way to a full recovery in EPOPs by the end of 2022.
While overall unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%, today's report shows some promise for Black unemployment which has just ticked down below 6.0% for the first time in this recovery.

White unemployment remains far below Black unemployment ever.

(More volatile series noted)
Read 9 tweets
🇺🇸 #Jobsreport: Springs forward in March
🟢Payrolls +431k
🟢Private +426k
▶️Gds +60k
▶️Services +366k
🟢Gov +5k

🟢Revision: +95k

#Unemployment 3.6% (-0.2pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt:post #Covid high)

⬆️Wages +0.4% m/m & +5.6% y/y

❌Jobs shortfall🆚pre-#Covid: 1.6mn
While jobs growth moderated in April, this report continues to show a very robust and historically tight labor market.
Here are the 4 key elements in this report:

1. Payroll growth was softer than in prior months, but still broad-based

2. Unemployment rate fell to a new post-pandemic low

3. Sidelined workers rejoined the labor force

4. Wages advanced moderately.
Read 13 tweets
NEW #JobsReport ANALYSIS:
Here’s a compilation thread of @DeanBaker13’s quick-take analysis of #BLSdata. #JobsDay
Watch @ceprdc later this morning for detailed report.
As expected, another very strong report 678k jobs, unemployment down to 3.8%.
More upward revisions: added 92k to Dec and Jan numbers.
Number reporting being out of the labor force because of the pandemic fell from 1.8 million to 1.2 million. This is a close to half of the drop in the workforce compared to pre-pandemic.
Read 17 tweets

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