Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #JobsReport

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Today's #JobsReport shows a continuing healthy recovery from the pandemic recession as payroll employment came in at 428,00 jobs added. The unemployment rate held steady though the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio ticked down.
bls.gov/news.release/p…
While the share of the population with a job ticked down slightly in April, it has been trending strongly in the right direction for months. I'm optimistic this will simply be a blip on the way to a full recovery in EPOPs by the end of 2022.
While overall unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%, today's report shows some promise for Black unemployment which has just ticked down below 6.0% for the first time in this recovery.

White unemployment remains far below Black unemployment ever.

(More volatile series noted)
Read 9 tweets
🇺🇸 #Jobsreport: Springs forward in March
🟢Payrolls +431k
🟢Private +426k
▶️Gds +60k
▶️Services +366k
🟢Gov +5k

🟢Revision: +95k

#Unemployment 3.6% (-0.2pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt:post #Covid high)

⬆️Wages +0.4% m/m & +5.6% y/y

❌Jobs shortfall🆚pre-#Covid: 1.6mn
While jobs growth moderated in April, this report continues to show a very robust and historically tight labor market.
Here are the 4 key elements in this report:

1. Payroll growth was softer than in prior months, but still broad-based

2. Unemployment rate fell to a new post-pandemic low

3. Sidelined workers rejoined the labor force

4. Wages advanced moderately.
Read 13 tweets
NEW #JobsReport ANALYSIS:
Here’s a compilation thread of @DeanBaker13’s quick-take analysis of #BLSdata. #JobsDay
Watch @ceprdc later this morning for detailed report.
As expected, another very strong report 678k jobs, unemployment down to 3.8%.
More upward revisions: added 92k to Dec and Jan numbers.
Number reporting being out of the labor force because of the pandemic fell from 1.8 million to 1.2 million. This is a close to half of the drop in the workforce compared to pre-pandemic.
Read 17 tweets
I told reporters during my weekly press conference that I am bringing a short-term Continuing Resolution to the Floor today to fund the government through March 11 as omnibus negotiations continue. I continue to urge appropriators to move quickly to reach agreement on an omnibus.
I also told reporters that House Democrats remain focused on advancing important priorities #ForThePeople this week, including bills to reform @USPS in a bipartisan fashion, #EndForcedArbitration, and affirm our commitment to LGBTQ rights worldwide.
I said to press that last Friday’s #JobsReport capped off a historic year of job growth, w/ nearly half a million jobs created in Jan ‘22 alone. House Dems passed the #AmericaCOMPETES Act that same day to unlock even more opportunity for workers & businesses to #MakeItInAmerica.
Read 4 tweets
Today's January #JobsReport is significantly stronger than expected. Job gains totaled 467,000 even as Omicron drove record high COVID cases. Unemployment ticked up to 4.0%

Huge payroll revisions too: Dec up to 510,000 from 199,000. Nov up to 647,000 from 249,000.

1/
Charts will be slow this morning, but 2 more things:
-Labor force participation ticks up to 62.2%
-Weekly hours were down 0.2 hrs, employee absence due to illness up to 3.6 million, a new record high; showing Omicron had impact even if it reverse slow jobs growth

#JobsReport 2/
Slipping in a few charts while I can: we added 467,000 jobs in January. In hindsight, the end of year slowdown no longer looks as dramatic. Despite Omicron now *and* Delta in the late fall, jobs growth stayed surprisingly strong.

#JobsReport 3/
Read 19 tweets
🧵Here's the main reason we are just about certain to see net job losses in tomorrow's #JobsReport
Every month, about 6 million new jobs start and about 6 million jobs end.

Usually, there are +-200k more jobs starting than ending, so net job gains are positive.
During #Omicron, job separations likely went up.

Businesses let some contracts expire as demand for dining/travel fell & childcare/supply chain disruptions increased.

At the same time, hiring slowed.

Job interviews got delayed because millions were Covid+ or quarantining
Read 5 tweets
It's #JobsReport day so time to update our jobs tracker.

The topline:

34m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton Obama
6.2m jobs = 11 months Biden
2m jobs = 16 years 2 Bushes Trump

Already 3 times as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents, COMBINED. 1/
Breaking it down by month, jobs have been created at more than 50 times the rate under Biden as under the last 3 GOP Presidents.

Biden = 565k/month
Clinton/Obama = 176k/month
Bushes/Trump = 10k/month

Incredibly, GOPers saw only 10k jobs created per month over 16 years. 2/
During what has been one of the best years for the American economy in modern history, the unemployment rate has come down 2.4 pts, down now to a very low 3.9%.

In contrast the last 3 GOP Presidents all brought recessions, and rising unemployment rates. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Job openings rebounded to 11 million in Oct, just barely below record highs.

Job openings are rising again after the peak of the Delta slowdown in Sep and as hiring in leisure & hospitality picks up again.

#JOLTS 1/
The increase in job openings was concentrated in accommodation & food services as employers felt more comfortable hiring with the Delta wave starting to wane in Oct. Remains to be seen whether that will continue in Nov given the slow #jobsreport we saw last Fri.

#JOLTS 2/
There are 0.67 unemployed workers per job opening (or ~1.5 job openings per unemployed), the largest imbalance since the JOLTS survey began in 2000.

In raw terms, if every unemployed worker was matched to a job, there would be 3.6 million unfilled jobs leftover.

#JOLTS 3/
Read 7 tweets
September witnessed a somewhat disappointing nonfarm #payroll gain of 194,000 jobs, which was weaker than the upwardly revised August gain of 365,000 and was well below #economists’ consensus estimates of nearly 490,000 jobs.
Clearly, there are significant #labor supply issues limiting the pace of recovery. Further, the #unemployment rate declined meaningfully, from 5.2% to 4.8% in Sept, and average hourly #earnings saw gains of 0.62% m-o-m, which brings the measure to 4.58% greater on a y-o-y basis.
The most interesting part of today’s #JobsReport, and much of the other recent #economic/corporate data, is that it’s the supply of resources that’s creating systemic pricing pressure, as well as consequently dulling growth of an #economy not lacking demand in virtually any area.
Read 11 tweets
One of the differences between Biden’s term in office and Trump’s term at this point in 2017 is that most (but not all) of Biden’s crises are not of his own making.

Afghanistan? Yes. Biden definitely deserves some blame for that. But Trump shares in the blame for that too.
At this point four years ago, Trump was facing:

- Calls for investigation because the Russian government interfered in the 2016 election, working to help him and hurt his opponent. This fact was confirmed by the then GOP-led Senate Intelligence Committee last year.
- Calls for impeachment because he fired the FBI Director two months after he announced publicly that the FBI was investigating the Trump Campaign over the election.

- Not forcefully denouncing and partially excusing participants in a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville.
Read 14 tweets
🇺🇸August #Jobsreport: "It's a softie"

🟡Payrolls +235k
🤏Private +243k
🤏Goods +40k
🤏Services +203k
🔴Gov -8k

🟢Revisions⬆️134k

#Unemployment 5.2% (-0.2pt)
🟡Participation rate 61.7% (flat)
✅Wages +0.6%

🔴Job loss vs Feb'20: 5.3mn
⬆️Share regained:76%
The US labor market is exiting the summer with much less momentum then when it entered with only a 235k advance in August

▶️Only 1/3 of 3-month trailing average of 750k
▶️Well short of our under-consensus 675k call
The breadth of job gains in the private sector cooled visibly in August with 62% of industries growing, from 69% in July
Read 14 tweets
Racism is embedded in the rules of our economy. Black workers experience worse job outcomes compared to white workers in so-called good times and bad. The UR for Black women is 8.2%, for white women 4.8%. #JobsReport #BeyondtheNumbers 1/
There’s no evidence that how Black workers, particularly Black women, are experiencing the economy is really any different than before the pandemic struck. #BeyondtheNumbers 2/
We should measure recovery progress by whether Black men and women are getting what they need to thrive and if what they’re getting is on par with what white workers are getting. #BeyondtheNumbers 3/
Read 5 tweets
So for a couple of years now, I have been updating the cumulative stats for the number of jobs created to date in the current President's term in office and comparing it to all of the other Presidents since 1965 at the same exact point in time.

So here goes for Biden month 3.
Number of jobs added to US payrolls during the first three full months of a President's term in office, 1965-Present, ranked.
#JobsReport

1) - Biden (02/2021 - 04/2021): 1.572 million jobs added
2) - Carter (02/1977 - 04/1977): 1.038 million jobs added
3) - Clinton (02/1997 - 04/1997): 923k jobs added
4) - Nixon (02/1973 - 04/1973): 838k jobs added
5) - Bush (02/2005 - 04/2005): 744k jobs added
6) - Johnson (02/1965 - 04/1965): 677k jobs added
7) - Reagan (02/1985 - 04/1985): 666k jobs added
Read 6 tweets
Since the #JobsReport just came out, let's use this data to take yet another look at the 2020 election and Trump's Big Lie.

US Presidents don't usually see a net loss of jobs in one term. Almost never. But it happened with Trump.

When it happens, it's not good for re-election. Image
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps monthly jobs reports going back as far as 1939.
data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES…

Which means that we have the full set of jobs reports for every Presidential term since Roosevelt's third term which started in 1941.
There have been 20 total four-year Presidential terms between that third Roosevelt term beginning in 1941 and Trump's term ending in 2021. All those jobs reports are online.

13 of those terms were held by a President who was running to be elected to an additional term in office. Image
Read 16 tweets
The April #JobsReport is out.

- 165,000 women left the workforce, meaning they stopped looking for work altogether
- 355,000 men joined the workforce
- The U.S. economy is still short about 2 million women workers.

Here’s what else the report shows: 🧵bit.ly/2PYsPRz
Unemployment rates continue to be higher for women of color.

- 8.6% for Black women
- 7.5% for Latinas
- 4.8% for White women

Black men have the highest unemployment rate of any racial group at 10.2 percent. bit.ly/2PYsPRz
The economy overall added 266,000 net jobs — far below projections that April would see nearly a million net jobs added.

Of those added, 161,000 jobs were held by women, thanks in part to job increases in the women-dominated hospitality industry. bit.ly/2PYsPRz
Read 10 tweets
So, here's where I am on the #JobsReport right now:
First, we should never read too much into any one report, *especially* in moments like now when so much is changing. Revisions can be big enough to shift our overall interpretation. And even "real" changes can prove short-lived.
But if your prior coming into today was "labor supply isn't a real problem right now," I think this report has to shift that somewhat.
Here's why:
The two strongest pieces of evidence against the "labor supply" story were:
1. Job growth was really strong (hard to say there's a shortage when companies can hire 1m people per month!);
2. Wage growth was modest, even in the most affected industries.
Read 12 tweets
So, today's #jobsreport was a really good bit of news for both the country economically and probably for Biden politically.

Biden now has the largest number of jobs added to US payrolls in the first two full months of a Presidential term in history (February was revised up). Image
Comparing Biden's first two full months in office (February and March, 2021) with Trump's (February and March, 2017), the job numbers for the exact same point in their terms are:

Biden (02/2021-03/2021): 1.384 million jobs added
Trump (02/2021-03/2021): 0.322 million jobs added
As mentioned before, Trump was the first US President since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs during the span of a full Presidential term. The US lost 2.876 million jobs between February, 2017 and January, 2021. Most of the losses came in the last year.
Read 6 tweets
898K Americans filed new regular state + PUA claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending 3/20, down 13% from prior week.

Tho this is still a very high level historically, it's the lowest since 51 weeks ago when we experienced a record-smashing claims spike to 3.3m.
The share of adults employed is lifting off & workers' expectations about the labor market continues its rapid improvement, per new evidence @uscensusbureau #householdpulsesurvey.
The rise in employed share over the last month is corroborated in Bick & Blandin's quasi-CPS.
Read 10 tweets
Not only has Joe Biden seen more jobs added to US payrolls during his first full month in office (379,000) than Trump saw during his (183,000).

Biden now has more jobs added in his first month than the NET jobs added during Trump’s whole term.
#JobsReport
data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES…
Number of jobs added to US payrolls during Biden’s first full month in office (Feb, 2021): +379,000

Number of jobs added to US payrolls during Trump’s first full month in office (Feb, 2017): +183,000

Trump, in his full term in office, saw a net of nearly 3 million jobs lost.
Last month, according to the #JobsReport, the US saw more jobs created than any February since 1999!

Look it up yourself at bls.gov.
Read 4 tweets
Today's jobs report shows that 379,000 jobs were added in February, but the U.S. economy is still down 9.5 million jobs from a year ago. Congress MUST pass the full $1.9 trillion relief package immediately.

Learn more from @eliselgould: epi.org/indicators/une…
While the overall unemployment rate declined slightly to 6.2%, the Black unemployment rate actually increased to 9.9%. Passing large-scale relief measures now is an economic and racial justice imperative. #JobsDay #JobsReport
The official unemployment rate understates the total economic pain. 25.1 million workers—or 14.7% of the workforce—have been directly harmed by the coronavirus downturn.
Read 4 tweets
🇺🇸#Jobsreport: An early blossom for employment

🟢Total +379k in Feb
💪Private +465k
Goods -48k
Services +513k
👎Gov -86k

🟡Revisions +38k
🛑Job loss relative to Feb'20: 9.5mn
🛑Share of #COVID19 loss regained only 58%

#Unemployment rate: 6.2% (-0.1pt)
LFP 61.4% (flat)
Many elements of positive news:

1. Upward revisions to Dec/Jan: +38k

2. The 3-month averages are perking up

Total +80k
Private +94k
Goods +7k
Services +87k
Gov -14k

3. Private payroll diffusion bounced to 57%
It's not just about being above the zero line, it's about ensuring a broad and inclusive labor market recovery
Read 14 tweets
Happy #JobsReport.

Forecasts’ center:
+210K jobs, up from 49K last month
6.3% unemployment

8:30 ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing. Hope you’re staying healthy.
The incomplete recovery stalled this fall as the virus surged again.

Since April, Americans' have had more lost jobs than the maximum job loss during the Great Recession.
The economy added 379,000 jobs in January and revisions to the prior two months added another 38,000 to the tally. That's the biggest gain since Oct.
Read 14 tweets
With the #JobsReport being released today, here is how every President in the last 55 years has done in terms of the number of jobs added to the US economy during the first 47 full months of their term.

Trump's term ranks last out of these 14 Presidential terms.
This data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov) and was calculated by adding all the monthly jobs report for each month of every Presidential term, from February of the year of inauguration until December of the year of the next election. 47 months.
Here are the numbers:
1) Clinton (02/1993-12/96) - 11.349 million jobs added.
2) Clinton (02/1997-12/00) - 11.346 million jobs added.
3) Reagan (02/1985-12/88) - 10.526 million jobs added.
4) Carter (02/1977-12/80) - 10.253 million jobs added.
Read 8 tweets
🇺🇸 #Jobsreport +245k in Nov 👎

- Private +344k
- Goods +55k
- Services +289k
- Gov -99k w/ -93k #Census

- Job loss since Feb: 9.8mn☹️
- Share of #COVID19 loss regained: 56%

- #Unemployment rate: 6.7% (-0.2pt)
- LFP 61.5% (-0.2pt)👎
- Share LT unemployed (>27wks): 37%🚨
The "ok" news was that private payrolls +344k

- #transportation +145k led by +82k couriers!
- professional & biz services +60k
- #healthcare +60k
- #manufacturing +27k
- #construction +27k
The bad news:

- #Retail -35k with losses at brick & mortar stores
- Education -6k
- Restaurants -17k
> this could worsen in the winter given rising #COVID19

- Government employment -99k
- Census -93k
- State employment flat
- Local employment -13k
> Education jobs ⬇️
Read 11 tweets

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