Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #JobsReport

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So, today's #jobsreport was a really good bit of news for both the country economically and probably for Biden politically.

Biden now has the largest number of jobs added to US payrolls in the first two full months of a Presidential term in history (February was revised up). Image
Comparing Biden's first two full months in office (February and March, 2021) with Trump's (February and March, 2017), the job numbers for the exact same point in their terms are:

Biden (02/2021-03/2021): 1.384 million jobs added
Trump (02/2021-03/2021): 0.322 million jobs added
As mentioned before, Trump was the first US President since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs during the span of a full Presidential term. The US lost 2.876 million jobs between February, 2017 and January, 2021. Most of the losses came in the last year.
Read 6 tweets
898K Americans filed new regular state + PUA claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending 3/20, down 13% from prior week.

Tho this is still a very high level historically, it's the lowest since 51 weeks ago when we experienced a record-smashing claims spike to 3.3m.
The share of adults employed is lifting off & workers' expectations about the labor market continues its rapid improvement, per new evidence @uscensusbureau #householdpulsesurvey.
The rise in employed share over the last month is corroborated in Bick & Blandin's quasi-CPS.
Read 10 tweets
Not only has Joe Biden seen more jobs added to US payrolls during his first full month in office (379,000) than Trump saw during his (183,000).

Biden now has more jobs added in his first month than the NET jobs added during Trump’s whole term.
#JobsReport
data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES…
Number of jobs added to US payrolls during Biden’s first full month in office (Feb, 2021): +379,000

Number of jobs added to US payrolls during Trump’s first full month in office (Feb, 2017): +183,000

Trump, in his full term in office, saw a net of nearly 3 million jobs lost.
Last month, according to the #JobsReport, the US saw more jobs created than any February since 1999!

Look it up yourself at bls.gov.
Read 4 tweets
Today's jobs report shows that 379,000 jobs were added in February, but the U.S. economy is still down 9.5 million jobs from a year ago. Congress MUST pass the full $1.9 trillion relief package immediately.

Learn more from @eliselgould: epi.org/indicators/une…
While the overall unemployment rate declined slightly to 6.2%, the Black unemployment rate actually increased to 9.9%. Passing large-scale relief measures now is an economic and racial justice imperative. #JobsDay #JobsReport
The official unemployment rate understates the total economic pain. 25.1 million workers—or 14.7% of the workforce—have been directly harmed by the coronavirus downturn.
Read 4 tweets
🇺🇸#Jobsreport: An early blossom for employment

🟢Total +379k in Feb
💪Private +465k
Goods -48k
Services +513k
👎Gov -86k

🟡Revisions +38k
🛑Job loss relative to Feb'20: 9.5mn
🛑Share of #COVID19 loss regained only 58%

#Unemployment rate: 6.2% (-0.1pt)
LFP 61.4% (flat)
Many elements of positive news:

1. Upward revisions to Dec/Jan: +38k

2. The 3-month averages are perking up

Total +80k
Private +94k
Goods +7k
Services +87k
Gov -14k

3. Private payroll diffusion bounced to 57%
It's not just about being above the zero line, it's about ensuring a broad and inclusive labor market recovery
Read 14 tweets
Happy #JobsReport.

Forecasts’ center:
+210K jobs, up from 49K last month
6.3% unemployment

8:30 ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing. Hope you’re staying healthy.
The incomplete recovery stalled this fall as the virus surged again.

Since April, Americans' have had more lost jobs than the maximum job loss during the Great Recession.
The economy added 379,000 jobs in January and revisions to the prior two months added another 38,000 to the tally. That's the biggest gain since Oct.
Read 14 tweets
With the #JobsReport being released today, here is how every President in the last 55 years has done in terms of the number of jobs added to the US economy during the first 47 full months of their term.

Trump's term ranks last out of these 14 Presidential terms.
This data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov) and was calculated by adding all the monthly jobs report for each month of every Presidential term, from February of the year of inauguration until December of the year of the next election. 47 months.
Here are the numbers:
1) Clinton (02/1993-12/96) - 11.349 million jobs added.
2) Clinton (02/1997-12/00) - 11.346 million jobs added.
3) Reagan (02/1985-12/88) - 10.526 million jobs added.
4) Carter (02/1977-12/80) - 10.253 million jobs added.
Read 8 tweets
🇺🇸 #Jobsreport +245k in Nov 👎

- Private +344k
- Goods +55k
- Services +289k
- Gov -99k w/ -93k #Census

- Job loss since Feb: 9.8mn☹️
- Share of #COVID19 loss regained: 56%

- #Unemployment rate: 6.7% (-0.2pt)
- LFP 61.5% (-0.2pt)👎
- Share LT unemployed (>27wks): 37%🚨
The "ok" news was that private payrolls +344k

- #transportation +145k led by +82k couriers!
- professional & biz services +60k
- #healthcare +60k
- #manufacturing +27k
- #construction +27k
The bad news:

- #Retail -35k with losses at brick & mortar stores
- Education -6k
- Restaurants -17k
> this could worsen in the winter given rising #COVID19

- Government employment -99k
- Census -93k
- State employment flat
- Local employment -13k
> Education jobs ⬇️
Read 11 tweets
Job openings fell -2.5% in Nov as the pandemic taps the brakes on hiring.

Job openings are still -10% vs. pre-crisis levels & the surging pandemic threatens further backsliding over the winter.

Latest @Glassdoor Job Market Report: glassdoor.com/research/job-m…

1/
38% of employers reduced job openings in Nov, up from 33% in Oct & the largest share since April.

Similarly, only 30% of employers increased hiring, the smallest share since May.

2/
The decline in job openings is unusually geographically dispersed:
-Plains states like South Dakota & Kansas that held up well earlier are now seeing large downturns
-42 states + DC saw MoM drops—the most uniform decline since May.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Job openings rose 1% in Sept to 6.4 million, according to #JOLTS.

This bump leaves us 9% down YoY w/ 1.95 unemployed Americans per job opening.

Open jobs have rebounded faster than after the GR, but have lost momentum in recent months.

Release: bls.gov/news.release/j…

1/ Image
The Jul surge in job openings in #JOLTS was unusually large. By contrast, @Glassdoor data has shown steadier progress since Jun.

Early data from @Glassdoor also anticipates continued progress in Oct.

2/ ImageImage
Part of the reason for the Jul surge and subsequent softness is bc of the 2020 Census delays which have shifted temp Census worker job openings to Jul instead of Apr.

This month's report confirms that the temporary effect has now largely waned.

#JOLTS 3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
September was the 7th month of the COVID crisis in the U.S. labor market, and the situation is dire. We added 661,000 jobs in Sept, but the labor market remains in crisis—we lost so many jobs in March and Apr that we are still 10.7 million jobs below where we were in Feb. 1/
And, nearly a quarter of a million jobs right now—247,000—are temporary jobs related to the decennial census that will disappear in the next few months. Not counting temporary census jobs, our jobs deficit is now 11.0 million jobs. 2/ census.gov/content/dam/Ce…
Further, in the year before the recession, we added 194,000 jobs per month on average, so from Feb-Sep, we should have added around 1.4 million jobs. That means the total gap in the labor market right now is on the order of 12.3 million jobs. 3/
Read 33 tweets
Thread: Today’s #JobsReport shows a labor market that, despite improvements since April, remains devastated by the #COVID19 recession. #JobsDay

Here are six signs showing why.
cbpp.org/blog/6-signs-t… ImageImageImageImage
1. The jobs “hole” that opened in March & April remains huge.

Private payroll employment remains 10.7 million jobs below its February level & state & local government payrolls remain 1.1 million jobs below.

cbpp.org/blog/6-signs-t… Image
2. State & local job losses, many in education, remain large due to budget cuts.

In April alone, more state & local workers were furloughed or laid off than in the Great Recession of a decade ago & its aftermath. #JobsDay Image
Read 8 tweets
Today's #jobsreport marks the 4th straight month of better-than-expected growth—with 1.4 million new and returned jobs and the unemployment rate declining to 8.4%

This Labor Day weekend, we can celebrate that 2.8 million fewer people were unemployed in August than in July
There’s still a ways to go before returning to the incredibly strong labor market that existed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While unemployment is declining, some counties and states are faring much better than others.
In July, seven states’ unemployment rates exceeded 13%, while nine states’ rates were below 7%.

Where governments, businesses, and households are ready and willing to resume many of their daily activities—with appropriate precautions in place—America can and will recover.
Read 4 tweets
Encouragingly, this morning’s #JobsReport witnessed not only solid job gains, with 1.37 million #jobs added, but also a drop in the #unemployment rate to single digits, at 8.4%, which is a psychologically meaningful threshold to breach.
Still, great perspective is required when situating this #data in proper context. The #unemployment rate is still resting too close to double digits, and many #businesses will not recover their footing for years to come, if ever.
Additionally, the sectors of the #economy that were responsible for much of the past decade’s #job gains (travel, #leisure and entertainment) will be slower to come back and may be years away from recovering.
Read 4 tweets
🚨 The private sector added only 1.0 million jobs in August, down from 4.7 million in June and 1.5 million in July. That suggests the jobs recovery is slowing down. #JobsReport 🚨
If we sustain the current pace of recovery, it will be a full year before private sector employment returns to pre-Covid February levels. If the pace of recovery continues to slow, the crisis could drag on for several years.
The median duration of unemployment continues to rise. It is now 16.2 weeks, up from 13.7 in July and 8.6 a year ago.
Read 10 tweets
STAY TUNED: Jobs numbers are on the money at 1.4M for August and unemployment rate is WAY lower than forecasts at 8.4%, consensus was 9.8%. #JobsReport
Workers' wages rose at a faster pace than their supervisory counterparts in August. That's been the trend under the @realDonaldTrump administration, for years now.
Read 3 tweets
Happy #JobsReport.

Forecasts’ center:
+1.2 million jobs
9.8% unemployment

8:30 ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing. Hope you’re staying healthy. Buckle up.
In Mar & Apr, we lost 22.2 million jobs (14.5%).

By July, we remained down 8.4% from Feb.

+1.2m in Aug would leave us 11.7 million jobs (7.7%) down and mean we recovered 52.7% of jobs. Image
I watch the share of Americans employed. The margin between employed and not is easier to measure and more comparable to the past these days than the margin between searching for work & not (unemployed).

At 55.1 percent in July, it was the lowest in the 57 years prior to April. Image
Read 17 tweets
Labor market stalls between week ending July 19 (4th from last bar) through week ending Aug 9 (last bar), per data on shifts worked at timekeeping company @KronosInc. Image
New evidence still signalling labor market stall in upcoming August #JobsReport.

Little change from week ending July 19th (5th from last bar) through week ending Aug 16 (last bar) in data on shifts worked @KronosInc. Image
However, some evidence of a tick up in hiring in this data in week ending Aug 16. Image
Read 6 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport, which witnessed nearly 1.8 million #jobs gained in the month of July, was stronger than many anticipated, yet it also displayed some signs of slowdown in #labor #market improvement.
The report shows that the pace of #job-gain acceleration has now slowed markedly, and it is our best guess that the rapid rate of return to #work will now exhibit a very deliberate pace of rebound from here.
That’s particularly the case for some sectors, such as #retail and #leisure #hospitality, where the slowing in improvement was even more pronounced.
Read 7 tweets
The latest #JobsReport shows that the economic recovery spurred by the investments Congress has passed is losing steam and more investments are still urgently needed to protect the lives and livelihoods of the American people.
We remain committed to continue negotiating and reaching a fair agreement with the Administration, but we will not go along with the meager legislative proposals that fail to address the gravity of the health & economic situation our country faces.
We call upon the White House’s negotiators to join us once again at the negotiating table today to secure a bipartisan agreement to put children, families and workers first. Read my full statement with @SenSchumer here: speaker.gov/newsroom/8720
Read 3 tweets
We added 1.8 million jobs in July, but our jobs level remains in absolute crisis—we lost so many jobs in March and April that we are still 12.9 million jobs below where we were in February. 1/
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT: Do not report monthly changes in state and local government jobs right now. They are totally distorted by seasonally adjustments. Look at net changes from February instead. Since February, we are down 1.2 million state and local jobs. 2/
To bolster our weak and precarious economy, Congress must get massive aid to state and local governments and extend the unemployment insurance provisions in the CARES Act. 3/ epi.org/blog/without-f… epi.org/blog/cutting-u…
Read 14 tweets
That 52.4% employment rate is down from a month ago but up from the prior week's 51.7%.

Averages 52.1% over the last 2 weeks, corresponding to the July CPS #JobsReport reference week.

Signals substantial employment loss coming in July #JobsReport.
Even with the expected +1 million seasonal adjustment, the Pulse Survey is signaling the loss of millions (2.5 - 6?) of jobs in July's #JobsReport.

Caveat: the Pulse is new. It did well predicting the last 2 #JobsReports but we're in uncharted waters.
Read 3 tweets
New evidence of labor-market weakening from Bick & Blandin's quasi-CPS.

Share of working-age adults employed fell an estimated 1.8 percentage points between June & July #JobsReport ref. weeks.

Caveat: the series diverged from the official one in May but tracked in June. Image
Finds continued decline in the working-age unemployment rate, but improvement greatly slowed from the prior month: -0.5 pp to mid-July versus -4.7 pp to June. Image
Signals total hours down Image
Read 6 tweets
David's figure is based on @homebase_data. This is July's CPS reference week. **If** predictive, it's presaging stall of last two months' EPOP improvement.

And that is low. EPOP each of the last 3 months has been below U.S historic low from the prior 72 years on record.
Image
Failure to beat virus keeps economy on its knees.
Read 19 tweets

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