JayEnAar Profile picture
Public health physician. Arriving at the right answer is important, but getting the question right is vital. The self-proclaimed expert is likely a charlatan

Aug 2, 2020, 7 tweets

On the day that the #Coronavirus epidemic came knocking at the door of the seat of power in #India - Home Minister Amit Shah announced today that he tested +ve - India's numbers passed the 1.75 Million mark. now firmly and unassailably in 3rd place in the CoronaLeagueOfNations

But the deaths - at any rate the deaths that are officially recorded and reported - are low. India is 5th for deaths.

The top 8 infected countries are still growing exponentially. - though the rate of growth varies

India's growth rate (measured over 5 days as the Compound Daily Growth Rate) is second only to Colombia but among the fastest growing countries it is the highest.

Among the top 8 most infected countries (USA, Brazil, India, Russia, Peru, Chile, Mexico, and South Africa, India has been growing faster than SouthAfrica for some days now.

The Recency Quotient, #RQ, measures the proportion of total infections that occurred in the last 14 days, is another measure of how vigorously the epidemic is growing/spreading in the community. India now has the highest RQ - 38%

And finally, case fatality. Difficult to measure. I dont agree with the crude metric of the ratio of deaths to cases. it is misleading esp in light of the large proportion of cases that are very new. Using an adjusted denominator - the cases 14 days ago - gives me this chart.

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