Thread by @gamesblazer06

Anyone who has followed me since QT began in late ‘17...know these charts are a Summation of my work for the last 2+ years... from the Peak of the Credit Cycle in January 2018.
#BankReserves

As they say Tops are a Process (u can make a lot of 💰waiting in ).. & Bottoms are Events.

Tsy Strips have done absolutely nothing but lose money -3% since its March 9, 2020 Peak.

Total Returns: (Since March 23)

: +118%
: +55%
: +49%
: +48%
: +46%
: +37%

#Reflation

not shabby +27% since then..as close as u will get as an equity proxy.
Barclays HY OAS +471bps... from a peak of 1,100bps on March 23.
Markets are healing... so Lending Standards aren’t gonna be tight forever. #Reflation

Ultimate Arbiter of Truth are always the Govt. Bond Markets... The #Deflation & De-Leveraging Credit Cycle began with QT in Jan 2018... in all likelihood ended in March 2020.. given QE Bank Cash Liquidity. -Ve Real Rates did the Trick.. don’t last forever.
#Reflation #FSOC

CCC OAS already lapping Lending Standards.. healing trend.. gapping down from a recent peak ..got to ~20% OAS..Not every recession has to be a Financial Crisis with Banks...especially with this amount of capital going into Recession..& huge liquidity now.

. #Reflation

10 Yr Real Rates now -1.0%... May have put in a bottom on Aug 5th at -1.06%? Regardless, even if not... this is a 2+ Std Deviation Left Tail. Real Rates aren’t gonna be this low forever..Bear Steepening coming. Imho Playing with #DV01 Fire.
#Reflation #PyroManiacs
200x P/E

10 Year getting lit up this morning.
Yields up to 70bps +5bps.
#DV01

This only gets worse for the guys pretending that is the only game in town... It’s Cyclicals.. getting worse from when they were jamming everyone into & on Deflation. Heck horrendous RV..

Real Rates starting to bottom? TBD
2 Standard Deviation Left Tail in a Massive Bubble with #DV01 Risk rising fast. Long Bonds & in Purgatory -8% since March peak.
#Reflation #Sequencing