Thread by @dravirmani

#NationalSecurity Wrong man was chosen for role of #founder #CDS. Q is whether it was appropriate to raise NSA position to full Cabinet rank & thus reduce NSA's access to contrariarian professional opinion from within/outside Govt. Diverse opinions is only solution to uncertainty

2/ns The qualifications for a founder CDS included, (1) knowledge of all dimensions of war; land, air, sea, (2) Capability in Strategic thinking & methodology, (3) Familiarity with, & ability to understand, frontier technologies(eg hypersonic, lasers), (4) Geopolitical interest

3/ns There is a big diff btwn single-point advice and single-uniform advice. A National security advisor must present alternative views & options, before giving his own advise on which he thinks is best option. If all he receives are views similar to his own, diversity is lost!

4/ns #Paradoxically a good #NSA must simultaneously be V open minded & have clear view on issues of relevance to National security. Th best way to do this is to have own mental model of national security but be open to contrary facts/views & adjust/change it when new facts emerge

5/ns #Net #Assesment has taught us to pay attention to low probability high impact events, which human beings generally ignore in everyday life & work. These are generally thrown-up by contrarians, who may be wrong 90% of the time, but the 10% could be a life or death event!

6/ns General Brent Snowcraft, former US NSA apparently met these criteria (abcnews.go.com/Politics/brent… ). Only History can judge which of our NSAs met this criteria best?