Dr Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Atheist-Nationalist👽, Macro economics & Policy Reform, National Security Strategy. Chairman, EGROW Foundation. Bloghttp://dravirmani.blogspot.in/?m=1uV
Umed Mehta #a citizen 🇮🇳 Profile picture ramjiYahoo Profile picture 4 added to My Authors
17 Oct
For a decade or more one has been saying, "stop hyphenating India with Pakistan and start comparing Pakistan with Bangladesh"? With Bangladesh GDP higher than Pakistan's GDP, I still doubt this will happen (Hint: Indian Per capita GDP will again be higher than Bangladesh in 2021)
2/bd #India's per capita GDP will return to a level higher than #Bangladesh by 2021, contrary to the simplistic, straight line growth projections in this 👇🏼 article. Keep a note of All the renowned economists who believed👇🏼, and compare after a year, with what I have said today.
3/bd We first used the example of Bangladesh during 1990s to motivate labor reform; which were critical to promoting labor intensive garment/textile exports. Bangladesh Textile units had 1000s of workers, while our exporters were scared to hire >20, as they couldn't b fired...4/
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25 Sep
"Actions speak louder than words" "Speak softly and acquire a bigger stick" Ignore the #DumbExperts who can't even interpret govt policy from its actions and keep asking govt to spell it out for them in words😢: business-standard.com/article/defenc…
2/ The commentariat has difficulty in deriving Govt policy intent from actions, only when the implication is positive, they find it very easy to unambiguously divine Govt's policy intentions from statements of random party people, when the implication is negative!🤓🤡
2/def The 21st C version of #Autonomy: One aspect is to develop mutually beneficial strategic relations directly with US allies, without the intermediation of the USA. This will make them immune from vicissitude of US domestic politics.
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22 Sep
So far so good, haven't seen any serious error/problem in what I've seen so far, but I need to look more carefully, before making a judgement. But clearly the reform process is now well under way 👍🏼👍🏼
3/labor Best change is reversal of #Indira #Gandhi's arbitrary decision during infamous #emergency, to lower limit for, retrenchment w/o bureaucratic permission, from 300 to 100. This will help restore the #Missing #Middle", as firms with <100 workers are free to expand to 300
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22 Sep
Individuals have rights & responsibilities for which they're accountable, not a group they r labeled with. If you give group rights, groups will also be held responsible for every member of group and if u hold group responsible for 1 individual's action they have group rights too
2/gr Sadly, our intellectual elite has failed to understand this for too long; If U keep creating group rights w/o responsibility & accountability, unfavored groups eventually revolt, followed by system collapse/anarchy. Equality of all humans/individuals is only sustainable sln
3/grp Individuals are good or bad, moral or immoral, responsible or irresponsible. The #communists invented class groups to promote hatred and strife, all decent humans should reject their hateful agenda & methods
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20 Sep
This is a #revolutionary #reform of the #agriculture #sector, which will help farmers and hurt middle men & their political partners who share in monopoly rents. I have observed hints of this rent seeking in decision process of the Committee of Secretaries on prices!
2/ru Don't let vested interests mislead u by red herring of Usery (which is banned since 1918). That's a separate issue which was addressed by bank nationalization, DFIs, setting up of NBFCs and the proliferation of micro finance institutions(MFIs bankbazaar.com/personal-loan/… )
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20 Sep
Disagree: It's failure wrt (1) wear masks in presence of others,(2) Hygene, (3) Physical Distancing (2m), (4) Ventillation (5) unfiltered AC air(6)Quarintene ensuring 1-5.
2/gpc #TTQ #Testing is useless if the "#quarantined" person infects every1 in his/her household or all non-COVID patients in clinic/ hospital. Testing is useless if a person has already infected 10 others & u can't #trace them! #TTQ is only as good as the weakest link in chain
3/gpc #TakeCare A V good friend just got #Covid from visiting a neighbor-hood Bank branch in which 5-6 employees were found to be infected (obviously he didn't know this when he went ). Follow five fold path in 🧵 & if you are over 62 avoid meeting any stranger.
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20 Sep
Starting with the rise & fall of USSR #CCP has studied everything related to rise & fall of great powers , to ensure "rise & rise" of China. ("History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes")
2/ccp But no history book suggests 👇, nor does it rhyme with history of European powers 🧐
3/ccp For those of us threatened by aggression (India, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam) its not a Geoeconomic game, its about war and peace, of choice between blood & sweat (Defence budgets) and appeasement
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18 Sep
India set up a govt education & health system, from the village up, starting from the 1950s. Why is it that the leftists & socialists who dominated the public discourse, & whose advocacy for poor was no 1 priority on every issue, never bothered about quality for 1st 50yrs?
2/soc Many of us on the economic right have been analysing & writing about quality of the govt education & health system for couple of decades. We found that the poor quality, was due to the administrative inefficiency and systemic corruption of the entire social welfare system.
3/soc One of the conclusions I came to was that the only way to ensure quality in a democracy of 1.4bi was digital connectivity of villages/habitation & e-education, e-medicine, e-transfers (DBT, DCT). refrn planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpap… and google.com/url?q=http%3A%…
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
"It's the #Party #Sector, stupid" The shift 👇🏼is from autonomy of #PartyCapitalists with respect to everyday decisions & depend on self control to implement #CCP's goals, to explicit monitoring of key parameters like obedience of the #Party #Capitalist to #Xi's directives!🧐
2/cps #CCPchinaInc (2)Th freedom to decide what % of profits to take for personal use by party capitalist viz for party goals including maximization of growth &/or employment is being controlled more actively since 2014, and more desperately since collapse of growth & profits
3/cps #CCPchinaInc Most China experts don't understand #China's #Socialist #Market #Economy or the transformation of the #TVEs of the 1990s into the #PartySector of the 2000s (+ the e-economy created by new party members) 🧵
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15 Sep
Reminds 1 of misogynist explanations for rape: She was dressed immodestly. She (India) was drunk & behaving loosely with a group of men. She slapped me for touching her, so i got angry & taught her(India) a lesson. Rape is heinous crime (Identify aggressor & analyze how to defend
2/agr Pakistani aggression agnst India started 1947, China's aggression in 1962. China-Pakistan partnership started in 1960s with Bhutto signing secret nuclear agreement in China. Partnership intensified after 1970-71. Since 2010 it has bcm a virtual alliance agnst India(Gwadar)
3/agr Despite this history of aggression, every defensive step by India is portrayed as offensive, so as to justify further offensive action by these allies, including terrorism & creeping acquisition of territory. Criticism of Indian policies is useful,only in historical context
Read 8 tweets
14 Sep
India has been trying since 1993, in endless border talks, to get China to agree to jointly demarcate the actual ground positions,on agreed maps. India proposed it be done in three segments, starting with the less controversial central. China has refused to do consider it.
2/China's ambassador to India recently stated, that (China doesn't want to do this bcs) it would make things More Difficult, meaning that defining the grey areas btwn diff perceptions of LAC would make border more difficult to solve(ie Creeping acquisition ruled out thereafter)
3/ The outlines of a border settlement are in the India-China agreement of 2005. In 2006 #China suddenly started backtracking from it and has got more and more aggressive since. #India is willing to settle the border on the basis of principles outlined in the 2005 agreement.
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12 Sep
#Unrealism #NehruvianFP #CCP #IncrementalImperialism: Equality between Criminal & Victim is a Liberal Fantasy. Unless you call out criminal aggressors & their lies, they get a license for their #Geobblesian propaganda of calling every #defensive action of victim as aggression
2/ccp Chinese Communist Party(#CCP) is quite capable of taking what it wants from others(land, islands, seas, ports, telecom, technology, profits), issue is, 1) What can we get from them(eg land they took in May-June)? 2) What is best way to get it(eg alliance,def capital exp?)
3/ccp We are not content with the status quo" of, (1)Jehadi terror perpetrated by Pakistan agnst us since 1980, (2) Creeping acquisition of Indian territory on LAC by China, (3) Nuclearisation of Pakistan by China since 1970 & SinoPak alliance threatening us, (4) Ch in NSG, UNSC
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8 Sep
#PLAaggression India fired "warning shots" into the air. This is a signal that any further move towards Indian troops in "Grey zone" as part of #CcpPla #creeping #acquisition strategy would no longer be allowed. If the #CcpPla wants more #Indian #land it has to fight for it!
3/pla The #Totalitarian #Communist #Emperor of the #Middle #Kingdom with #mandate from #heaven is convinced that only an #evil state would resist its benevolent😇 acquisition of the later's territory.
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7 Sep
#Professor🤡#Phd:" #CCP has the freedom to propagate it's #Geobblesian propaganda in our free, open democracy, we have the freedom to argue about it in our own media" #EqualRights for all! 🤡
1/geob #History is what the #CCP decrees it to be, every despot has his own personalized version of history
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6 Sep
#NeoCollonial Bias: For 60 yrs every time there was hint of conflict btwn India-Pakistan there were lurid stories in #Western media abt danger of nuclear war. With a warm war btwn #China & #India going on for 4mons, there's barely a mention of face-off btwn 2 nuclear powers..2/
2/Col #NeoCollonial In one case the #Pakistan narrative prevailed in Western media, in present case the #Chinese narrative prevails. The only thing common appears to be the heritage of anti-#India post-collonial bias. (Any other explanation anyone? )
3/Col As @vlalit says "The largest democracy & 5th largest economy in the world (a nuclear power) has been attacked by a Communist Dictatorship & (near) super power, and there are few reports or analysis, in the world press (the wise men & conscience keepers of the world)"!
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5 Sep
What is the basis of the widespread assumption, that the PLA is talking and preparing for war, while the Indian armed forces are talking and sitting on their hands? This lack of faith in our armed forces was puzzling till 28th august, but is truly astounding after august 30th!
2/pla Read everything, believe nothing, watch everything, prepare & act fast when necessary!
3/pla #CCP #CcpPla #CCPlies are well known to the National Security establishment, but perhaps not to our #LIMPs (🙈🙉🙊)
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5 Sep
Few Indians know about the Pakistani aggression in 1965 , the 2nd major aggression after 1947. A cntry <1/15 our economic size/power could repeatedly aggress against us, bcs of its smartness in aligning with No 1 superpower, & using latter for its own purposes(+higher gr rt<1986)
2/pak After 20yrs of "non-alignment" we had to enhance our #Geopolitical power by signing the "Indo-Soviet treaty of Friendship and Co-operation," with the No 2 Super power, before taking successful action in 1970-71 [Power pyramid: Economic, Military, Geopolitical, Will to power
3/pak If we have to sign a similar treaty with current super power to ward of aggression by the No 2 power & its ally, there is no shame n it. It is far more honorable than becoming a serf or vassal of a nasty communist dictatorship that commits genocide & enslaves its own people
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4 Sep
2/djt Any damage due to "erosion of post-war alliance network" could be outweighed by the development of a "post-pandemic alliance against China's Communist dictatorship & its asymmetric economic policies & military aggression," (NO tariffs on member cntrys 🙏🏼)
3/djt an #EU that cannot defend itself against a perceived threat from #Russia (<1/15 its ec size) and a #NATO alliance in which member countries buy major weapons systems from the country(Russia) it's supposed to defend against, is a #farce or #joke🤡. Replace with EU alliance.
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1 Sep
Some of us noted that #CCP #China is announcing an aggressive Foreign Policy(initiated 2006, finalized in GFC 2008), when at a 2010 ASEAN FMs mtg, Yang Jeichi said, "China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that is just a fact." thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/202…
2/ccp "neo-tributary framework with four core imperial concepts that continue to shape Chinese Communist Party’s worldview:
1 Chinese exceptionalism as motive
2 Trade and diplomacy as means
3 Cultural assimilation as political strategy
4 Image building as legitimacy defense"...3/
3/ccp "China’s rulers were suspicious of foreign trade...believing trade was something vassal states and barbarians needed from China. As Pan and Lo note, “Trade followed diplomacy and, to Chinese thinking, subdued foreigners and ‘barbarians’ through cultural assimilation”...4/
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