Thread by @KawasakiKR11

This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: Tesla Japan essentially out of inventory. Q3 delivery to start in late Aug.

S/X/3 summry.

No new inventory listed, just a few CPOs.

Glovis Splender will arrive in ~1wk & prep for delivery is in full swing. Even those who ordered in June/July are getting paperwork, so they seem to be intent on clearing the entire backlog in one shipment. Note that no Model 3 shipment since last yr, most likely since Nov.

My estimate for this yr was 300/Q for 1H, 200/Q for 2H. They delivered some in Q1 (100~150) from inventory, so this will be 2.5Q worth of deliveries in one Q.

My estimate (& rumor on the forum) is ~300 backlog & ~200 from Q3. If they're intent on delivering all, that's ~500.

I thought they'd do ~400/300 in Q3/Q4, but they seem to be pushing for ~500/200.

What's nice this Q is that shipment is early enough that we'll know how many was on that ship before Q3 ends. My guess ATM is 700~800, w/ 200 or so of them S/X.

Q3 orders are similar to Q1 (Q2 was low, obviously). But backfilling has been quite high for several wks, because many are entering data as they get the paperwork. i.e. when they report orders, rather than when they order, has been a better proxy for deliveries.

Here's the monthly orders reported. Early on, sampling rate was ~20%.

102 orders reported since NOV, so ~500 at 20% rate. The deliveries out of inventory in Q1 & cancellation (reportedly high) prob. cancel out a drop in sampling rate.

The only Q wrt Q3 delivery is if they can do 500 in a bit over a month. The most they've done is ~290 in Sept. '19, the first month of Model 3 delivery. They may not have the infrastructure to do 500 in Q3.

At the end of July, Tesla has 0.012% JPN market share for 2020, ~4.2% of BEV share (Leaf has >90% share). Model 3 hasn't made the quarterly top 20 import list.