Rijo M. John Profile picture
PhD | Economist | Prof. @rajagiri.edu | Guest faculty @IIMKozhikode | Consultant to @WHO @WorldBank @TobaccoFreeKids @Tobacconomics | Former faculty @iitjodhpur

Aug 15, 2020, 8 tweets

👉14 Aug: India crossed 2.5M reported #COVID19 cases & 49134 deaths
👉Last 8 days added 5L cases & 7500 deaths
👉One crore tests done in past 16 days
👉India did 28.6M tests so far (TPR 7.9%)
👉Thread shows important trends national, state & district level. (1/n)

The 7-day avg. daily growth of cases now at 2.7%. At this rate, the next 1M should take only ~13 days (i.e., ~27 Aug.) Growth of cases is still more in NE states, BR, JH, AP & KL. The daily test positive rate now at 7.9% but very high in MH, KA, AP & WB. (2/n)

The mortality rate from #COVID19 is now only 1.9% at the national level. However, there is huge discrepancies across states as seen here. MH & GJ leads in terms of fatalities from COVID19. (3/n)

India reported the 65610 new cases and 990 deaths y'day. A&N Islands & Puducherry leads in the rate of growth of cases while MH & AP continues to report the highest number of daily cases. MH continues to clock the highest
@COVID19 casualties.(4/n)

While few of the big burden states seem to have either reduced the daily new cases or plateaued for now, most are seeing new daily highs. 35 States/UTs now have at least a 1000+ #COVID19 cases. (5/n)

States with increasing Test +ve rates should also be increasing test per million per day significantly. States like AP, KA & DL are using close to 40 to 70% of their daily tests using Rapid Antigen tests & many are not using their full capacity for RT-PCR. (6/n)

👉Top 50 districts in India for the total reported number of #COVID19 cases.
👉58% of cases & 72% of deaths now come from these districts.
👉The virus has indeed spread far & wide (7/n)

TL;DR:
👉States should report the number of RT-PCR & Rapid Antigen tests & +ves from each test type separately
👉Add info on gender age & other important parameters associated with +ve cases & deaths
👉Transparency in reporting is important to improve our systems (n/n)

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