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Rijo M. John Profile picture
Rijo M. John
@RijoMJohn
PhD | Economist | Prof. @rajagiri.edu | Guest faculty @IIMKozhikode | Consultant to @WHO @WorldBank @TobaccoFreeKids @Tobacconomics | Former faculty @iitjodhpur
Dec 8, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The schools in my area remain closed today because the Chief Minister of my state is traveling on a custom-modified BharatBenz luxury coach with many of his ministers for a public outreach program that purportedly aims to highlight the government's achievements to the public.
1/4 Image For the past few days, I've been hearing announcements through loudspeakers mounted on moving vehicles about this grand bus tour with a cavalcade through our areas. Schools in respective areas will remain closed as it passes through all 140 assembly constituencies of Kerala.
2/4
Jun 30, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
"Where Mahalanobis and India led, the rest of the world has followed, so that today, most countries have a recent household income or expenditure survey. Most countries can only envy India in its statistical capacity" Wrote Prof. Angus Deaton, a Nobel laureate in economics.
+ Image He was writing about India's National Sample Survey, established in 1950. Hindustan Times newspaper in 1953 hailed it as "the biggest and most comprehensive sampling inquiry ever undertaken in any country in the world".
+
Feb 4, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
*⃣Thread on #COVID19 deaths*⃣
Officially reported C19 deaths in India crossed half a million (500087) although many studies estimate the true number to be between 3-4 million.

This chart shows % share of reported deaths & compares it with the % adult population in each state.
1/ Some states stand out on this chart:
#Kerala with only 2.84% of adults has reported 11.3% of all deaths.
#Maharashtra with 9.7% adults reported 28.6% of deaths.
#Uttarpradesh with 15.7% of adults reported only 4.7% of deaths.
#Bihar w/ 7.8% adults reported just 2.5% of deaths.
2/
Aug 26, 2021 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
All the focus is on #Kerala's #COVID19 cases as it contributed ~68% of new cases in India y'day.

Politically, it's become a major tool of attack against the state & its government.

This thread tries to make some sense of the COVID19 numbers from Kerala.

1/ Many are asking why Kerala is reporting so many cases while the rest of India seems to have flattened it.

Yet, I'm actually surprised why Kerala is reporting only so many cases when it should be actually reporting 40K+ daily cases already.

2/
Aug 4, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Prof. @MenonBioPhysics, @nebuer42, & I prepared a set of recommendations on #Kerala's #COVID19 management, part of which was appeared in today's @Malayla_Manoram.

It pertains to suggested changes in the current lockdown policy of the state, vaccinations, etc.
1/ Recommendations on lockdown.
2/
Jul 30, 2021 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
This thread on why #Kerala’s #COVID19 numbers still not falling & my subsequent tweet on ICMR 4th serosurvey has exponentially increased the level of troll activity on my TL

I love data & let me dispel more misconceptions with data so the trolls can keep earning their bread.
1/ First of all, I feel pity for these trolls wasting their time on a state whose healthcare infra has never collapsed at any time during this pandemic.

Here's the current usage of health infra in Kerala. Don't you worry, the state will sail through even at 40K daily cases.
2/
Jul 24, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Seroprevalence in #Kerala is 42.7% compared to 67.6% as per the note shared byGovt. of Kerala y'day. i.e., a difference of 25% points.

It implies, the pandemic spread in Kerala has stayed consistently well below the national avg. indicating a more flattened curve in Kerala.
1/ Both 7-day avg. daily new cases & test positivity rates are on a steady rise in #Kerala as ~50% of the popn still remain susceptible.

Daily testing has been stable around 1.3L/day

The state needs to significantly increase its daily testing given the high & increasing TPR
2/
Jul 22, 2021 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
.@MoHFW_INDIA has quickly come up with another #MythsVsFacts to "debunk" one more report highlighting India's #COVID19 deaths undercounting as they've done multiple times in the past.

As usual, the rebuttal itself is rich in myths & low on facts.
1/
 The original study by the @CGDev & authored by respected authors including Dr. @arvindsubraman, former chief economist to GoI, estimates that India may have undercounted #COVID19 deaths by 10 times. The study can be found here.
2/
 cgdev.org/publication/th…
Jul 18, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Has #Kerala miserably failed in containing #COVID19 pandemic?

This is a question I keep getting from various quarters. This thread is an attempt to explain it.
1/ Image Using the latest ICMR 3rd sero survey results during Dec 2020, we can see that #Kerala was able to identify & report one in every 5 cases, while all of India was able to identify only 1 in every 28 cases.

It shows the effectiveness of testing strategy used in Kerala
2/ Image
Jun 12, 2021 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
Thread.

1/ An article from @TheEconomist claiming that India's true #covid19 mortality maybe 5-7 times than the reported numbers has really irked GoI so much so @MoHFW_INDIA has now published a rebuttal that is short on substance but abundant on rhetoric. 2/ After using words like "speculative", "misinformed", "unsound" etc. to describe the article, the rebuttal interestingly says "there is no peer-reviewed scientific data available" for some studies used in that report.

I'm glad GoI takes scientific peer review seriously.
Jun 9, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Data thread on #COVID19Vaccine distribution across Indian states

*Age group:
HCWs & FLWs are among all age groups

Most of the limited supply should ideally go to the 60+ followed by 45-60 until supply is sufficient. Yet, a large chunk is going to 18-45 in some states

1/ There is a considerable gender gap in the distribution of vaccinations in some states

2/
Jun 8, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
1) #Kerala's #COVID19 mortality rate has been consistently increasing over the past month after reaching a low of 0.3%. Still one of the lowest in India.

Total reported #COVID19 deaths are at 10,157, the 10th largest in India. 2) There are concerns of underreporting of deaths with mortality rates being significantly different across districts ranging from 0.1% to 0.8%.

During the 2nd wave from March 18 in KL, the share of total cases from Trivandrum is only 10% while that of deaths is 22%.
May 29, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/ This was the thing that greeted me on my WhatsApp today morning. Let's examine its utter folly.

Is India's Vaccine Maitri the reason we are getting all those foreign aid? I do not think so.

why? 2/ First of all, of the total vaccine exports from India till y’day, only ~16% were sent as Grants by GoI. Others were all SII fulfilling its commitments one way or the other. GoI has nothing to do there or take credit for.
If anything, GoI had to stop SII from exporting further.
May 9, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
@MoHFW_INDIA is the official Twitter handle of the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, GoI. It must a place to report accurate, realistic, & contextual info on the pandemic that is ravaging the country!

Has it done that? I do not think so!

Why?

+ There's been an undue emphasis on the cumulative numbers of #COVID19 vaccine doses administered, tests done, recovered cases, etc. without a sense of reality. India is the 2nd populous country in the world. So, the cumulative numbers for anything ought to be large!

+
May 6, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Thread on COVID testing data

It's been a month since @ICMRDELHI has been reporting at least 100K fewer tests than the tests reported by all states combined. This discrepancy has been growing & is over 3L for the past several weeks.

What does it mean? What implications?
+ In the past, this difference used to get reconciled over time. But, this time, this difference is so large & not been reconciled for a long time.
+
May 5, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Thread on #COVID19Vaccination

Daily avg jabs are now 1.8M indicating acute vaccine shortage whether GoI admits it or not.

It means 18-45 yrs who are better positioned to register on CoWIN & at lesser risk of dying are using the limited doses & depriving the more vulnerable

++ Avg. daily jabs have declined from a peak of 3.7m to 1.8m (51% fall over the past month)

Many vulnerable & aged have to reschedule their visits multiple times to get jabs which increase their risk of exposure significantly

++
May 4, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
India's reported #COVID19 cases have crossed 2cr (20M)

The daily chart suggests a peak/plateau. However, this is NOT natural.

This 'peak' has followed reduced daily testing.

From a peak of 19.5L daily tests on Apr 30, our daily testing has been on a consistent decline!
1/4 Yesterday's daily testing was only 16.6L despite being a regular Monday!

It appears that we are forcing an artificial peak with reduced testing!

The consistent reduction in testing started just as we crossed 400K cases!

2/4
Apr 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Some epi models predict 8L-10L daily #COVID19 cases in India in the next 2-3 weeks. In all likelihood, India is already having that many daily infections. However, will India ever report that many daily new cases?

My guess: our reported cases will not go >5L to 6L!

why?

1/4 The daily growth of tests has been much lower than that of daily cases for the past 1 month.

The avg. TPR now is 18%. Our avg. daily testing now is 16L.

At the current TPR, it'd take 33L daily tests to report 6L cases, i.e., more than double the current daily testing.

2/4 Image
Apr 20, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It is to be noted that the policy shift in the government of India’s #COVID19 vaccination has come at a time when the daily inoculations of #COVID19 vaccines have been on a steady decline going down from a daily average of 3.7M to 2.7M in the past two weeks.
1/5 Domestic supply constraints & the Union government’s failure to ensure vaccine supply commensurate with demand from different states were evident on vaccine delivery so far.
2/5
Jan 23, 2021 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
#Kerala is seeing a steady increase of new #COVID19 cases & Test +ve rates.
👉It accounts for >40% of all new cases in India
👉Testing is pretty stagnated
👉Vaccination has been at a very low pace too. Only 47K Beneficiaries so far, while neighboring Karnataka did 1.83L
1/ The only solace has been a relatively low mortality rate compared to the rest of the country. This mortality rate has also seen a marginal increase in recent times. There are also discrepancies in reported deaths between some district administrations and the state.
2/
Nov 20, 2020 • 13 tweets • 12 min read
19 Nov: #India crossed 9M reported #COVID19 cases & 132202 deaths. 4.4L active cases
👉1M new cases & 12.1K deaths added in the past 23 days. The previous 1L cases were added in 18 days.

*⃣Follow this data thread to know important trends national, state & district level*⃣
1/ Image 👉Cases growing at 0.44% (it was 0.57% at 8M)
👉Steady fall in 7-day avg. daily new cases seem to have halted for now
👉Daily active cases still in -ve territory
👉Daily tests averaged 9.3L past 7 days (down from 10.5 at 8M)
👉Daily deaths ~500 (It was 511 at 8M)
2/ Image