Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Member, NITI Aayog (member-niti@gov.in), Author (2005) of "Tripolar World: USA, China & India" & Founder Chairman(2018-22), EGROW Foundation

Aug 15, 2020, 5 tweets

Pak attacks India,13x it's size fr 1/2C (πŸ‚πŸ’©=>"contrary to silly calls for boycotting Chinese gds, India cannot disengage dependence on China."; "cost of militarily confronting an adversary whose econ is >5x & defence budget 4x ours wld b horrendous") m.hindustantimes.com/analysis/china…

2/Go The rest of the article is a good read as it explains in an understandable way, what many analysts have recomended

3/Go: History lesson: U can get away with #attacking an adversary(size 15x) using assymetric warfare & #super-power #backstop, If India is prepared to do same it can #Deter 2nd power very cost-effectively (as we are merely trying to defend our territory). Or raise defence budget

4/go Even with best diplomacy (neighborhood+ middle powers) deterring Communist China effectively, requires a stark choice, either, (1) A quasi-alliance with the USA, or (2) Rise in defence budget to 2.5-3% of GDP, or (3) a bit of both: deep US partnership & budget=2-2.5% of GDP

5/ns standard Indian wishy-washy, temporizing, behaviour won't work in the #Xi JinPing era. We cannot keep postponing decisions, in hope that problem will solve itself, or become easier to solve after 10 years. Nor will working on periphery of problem halt military aggression!

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