Thread by @GorwayGlobal

It is widely believed in #India that the mortality from #Coronavirus is low, under 2%. Many commentators take the reported numbers, 51k deaths, 2.65 million infection as of today, and derive a mortality risk of 1.9%. This is of course silly, because 32% of that 2.65M are recent

32% of 2.65M occurred in the last 14 days. But even of you factor that in the mortality is low (2.8%). Deaths may be under-counted and under-reported, but so may cases especially the asymptomatic ones that may never come to attention. But all of this misses an important point

The actual risk of serious illness or death contingent upon catching #Coronavirus is not so important as the behaviour of people as a consequence of their perception of that risk and its unacceptability and avoidability. The fact is that India is now at a stage where #Coronavirus

is damaging the counrtry not by the cough and fever and pneumonia and cytokine release syndrome that it undoubtedly causes, but by the economic effects - the disruption to normal economic, social, and political life. And that is driven by perception and wilful decisions. More...

Parliament is in limbo. hasn't met since March. Railways are running fewer trains than a century ago. airports have sepulchral silence about them. Highways are moving so freely it is unreal. Jobs are decimated.

GDP growth is deep in negative territory, the numbers cannot even be fudged back above zero. The exact mortality rate is the least of our worries, but the attempts to project India's #Coronavirus #epidemic handling as somehow world-beating is the symptom of a deeper malaise.