Short summary of political situation and latest trends in #Belarus (THREAD)
1) Solidarity & self-organisation in society still highly present: crowd-funding for victims of repressions, solidarity chains/actions, humour as important solidarity tool, assistance from diaspora
2) Still no single political centre for coordinating protest moods => many different levels of self-organisation, actions often spontaneous, horizontal communication gains importance. People are getting used to actively using public space for political messages
3) State ideology took over many oppositional methods: peaceful rallies (though, people brought there by buses, often/mostly under threat of dismissal from work/for payment), flashmobs/activities in social media, solidarity chains, humour. Main messages: stability, unity, order
4) Attempts to solve the problem of partial strikes/dismisslas at Belarusian state media => experts from Russia invited (#Lukashenka confirmed). Also workers on strike can be replaced by others from Belarus or abroad (Russia, Ukraine etc.), he says
belta.by/president/view…
5) Proclaimed strikes of state-owned plants nationswide are still not in progress (at least not with 100% workers). Problems: threats from directors to get fired, not much savings, no experience in striking, not enough legal knowledge about own rights, KGB talks with most active
6) #Lukashenka actively meets with working collectives & asks people for support. He looks calm (not agressive anymore), plays kind ruler who is trying to save the nation from a war/conflict/chaos. Compare: on Monday, at a meeting with plant workers, working men shouted "Go away"
7) Power vertical (exception single cases) & security/military structures keep being loyal to #Lukashenka. Minister of Defence talked with the military about possible necessity to shoot no matter whether "order is criminal or not" (leaked information).
news.tut.by/economics/6975…
8) Coordination Council for peaceful transfer of power started its work. Among members: f-er Minister of Culture #Latushka, Nobel prize winner #Alexievich, #Kalesnikava. BUT: criminal investigation against it initiated (danger to national security). State not ready for a dialogue
9) Main message by state media: those on the street want "Ukrainian scenario" => chaos, war, split of society, anti-Russian moods. It is an attempt to bring in the missing geopolitical factor into the oppositional protests + Russian flags often seen at pro-#Lukashenka rallies
10) 83% of Belarusians do not feel safe from criminal actions (online poll by Investigative Committee). Security was one of most important pillars of #Lukashenks's legitimacy, which suffered a lot already at the beginning of pandemic (due to inconsequent information policy)
11) Targeted repressions / threats / dismissals continue: civic activists, journalists, activists of stike groups at state-owned enterprises, members of Coordination Council etc. President not ready for a dialogue, at least not with the recently built CC
12) Scenes with a gun/helicopter last week were presumably aimed at causing fear in society. Instead, those protesting are making fun of the president. On poster: "Dad of the year" (15-year-old sun of #Lukashenka was shown with a gun nearby as well)
13) Two biggest protest rallies in history of independent #Belarus took place on 16th and 23th August. Next one planned for 30th August. Most popular Telegram channel in Belarus NEXTA keeps calling for protests / spreading information about time and place
14) Reaction #Russia: can deploy police in Belarus if situation worsens (might be only threats), BUT calls for respect of people's opinion on streets & constitutional order. Read more on how Russia influences Belarus without military by @HannaLiubakova
shorturl.at/rCLMO
15) Coordination Council: external interference in political crisis in Belarus in any form is unacceptable, foreign partners should refrain from making statements about representing interests of Belarusian society & providing assistance: naviny.by/new/20200827/1…
16) TORTURES => Belarusian Helsinki Committee, @viasna96, World Organisation Against Torture & @HumanRightsFed wrote to UN Special Rapporteur on Torture => mind. 450 cases of torture/humiliation in #Belarus after elections, but 0 criminal cases initiated: spring96.org/en/news/99224
17) Legal methods of protest continue: #Latushka, member of Coordination Council / former Minister of Culture, called Belarusians for recalling MPs they "voted for", if they lost their trust => queues for signatures to recall deputies seen in Belarus: news.tut.by/economics/6982…
18) Further legal & peaceful methods of non-street protest gain importance in #Belarus => people quit their membership in pro-state student unions / labour unions; initiate new unions (free union of sportsmen, > 500 signed open letter); initiate meetings with MPs (on the photo)
19) Solidarity reached unprecedented levels for #Belarus => women do not let policemen take/beat protesting men; business helps they way they can (a cafe, where protesters were hiding, closed its door, it was broken by police => next day hunderds came to buy coffe & support cafe)
20) People learn new forms of self-organisation: in 4 protest weeks horizontal contacts became stronger, private contacts/social media are important source of information/network. People organise courtyard/city district parties => could become a base for self-government in future
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