Thread by @simonahac

🤓 remember all that fuss about grid reliability, when we urgently needed NEG's reliability g'tee?

pfft!

@AEMO_Media's latest report reveals grid's expected "unserved energy" remains low — ie. easily meets the 99.998% reliability standard.

SA & VIC expected to exceed 99.9994%!

…interestingly, in every scenario *grid* energy is projected to decrease.

why?
• more rooftop solar (reducing demand from grid)
• energy efficiency
• economic activity

(but including rooftop solar, total energy consumed generally rises year on year.)

…as things stand, even with #liddell coal power station closing in 2022/23, there is no technical requirement to build new dispatchable generation before 2029.

…unless, of course, coal power stations start falling over sooner than expected.

…we're on track to see *periods* where all the power in a region is met by rooftop solar.

likely to start around 2023 in SA, and 2027 in VIC.

(sooner than was expected in last year's report.)

…minimum demand across the NEM is likely to halve between 2017 and 2025.

(that'll be really painful for the less flexible coal generators. poor things!)

…if not well managed, low minimum demand could easily create a bunch of challenges, eg. instability, voltage management, frequency control, system restart.

the challenges are not trivial, but AEMO is well aware of them and is working with stakeholders to find solutions.

the report notes that rates of #coal power outages have been increasing over the past decade…

…and forecasts increasing rates of coal power outages over the coming decade.

for some reason the energy ministers recently decided to adopt a higher reliability standard (99.9994%), which may force NSW to make additional investments before by FY24.

…all-in-all, good news. ✅

the energy transition proceeds, the lights stay on.

reliability is forecast to remain excellent — even when the wind don't blow and the sun don't shine.

(and just a reminder: under all these scenarios, gas power generation is expected to decrease.)

report now available here:

aemo.com.au/-/media/files/…