1. Take on the big issue with FSA acreage data in a new #FDD. What do the preliminary data released by FSA imply about possible revisions to NASS planted acreage estimates? June: 92 million for corn and 83.8 million for soybeans. Those are the targets. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2020/08/using-…
2. We look at historical ratios of preliminary to final FSA and final FSA to NASS acres. You can see those details in the article. The important part is the projections at the end of the article.
3. In the first set of projections we use historical averages for preliminary to final FSA acreage. In other words, we assume that the Aug FSA reported planted acreage of 81.1ma for corn represents 99.1% of final FSA acreage.
4. This assumption results in what appear to me to be unrealistically low projections of NASS final planted acreage for corn and soybeans in 2020. FSA essentially gave everyone an extra 30 days to report due to COVID and I don't thing 99.1% have reported yet.
5. Second set of projections we assumed the lowest reporting % that occurred over 2011-2019. We still end up with projections that are 4.8 ma and 3.3 ma less than NASS for corn and soybeans. Seems to big a difference to me still.
6. Final projections reverse the question. What FSA reporting % in Aug would make the projected FSA acreage the same as NASS June planted acreage? Turns out it is very, very low by historical standards. 91 and 92% for corn and soybeans.
7. So where does this leave us in projecting NASS planted acreage revisions for corn and soybeans? Either reported % is the lowest ever in Aug by a wide margin or NASS estimates are too high. Personally, I think it is some of both.
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.