Updated model (details below). Still to early to estimate the impact of school opening. Current IFR ~ 0.07%. Estimated 50000 (34000 - 72000) <65j and 360 (240 - 540) >65j currently infected, means we're catching between 5% to 10% of infections. #covid19be cc #natconcovid 1/
This model is now estimated exclusively on information from deaths, except for the last month where cases are used to better model recent trends. Despite low deaths the model estimates a high number of (young) infected people.
2/4
These are two more model inferences: evolution of test detection rate and total amount having been infected. 3/4
Since we're catching a low percentage of infections, the added value of contact tracing to contain spread is currently limited.
Since there are many infections, the hope to #crushthecurve without drastic measures such as a total lockdown is unrealistic. 4/4
* too early 😐
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