@IHME_UW projections for cumulative #COVID19 deaths globally by January 1st are 2.8 million; this is 1.9 million deaths from now until the end of the year. 1/7
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…
Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2 million, or 769,871 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 41% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 2/7
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued – meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1 – then the death toll could increase to 4 million, this would be 3.1 million more deaths from now to the end of the year. 3/7
healthdata.org/sites/default/…
Over the last week, global cases have begun to trend up slightly with considerable day-to-day fluctuation due to reporting biases by day of week. 4/7
Reported deaths have continued to decline since the second week of August, reaching about 5,500 deaths per day. The mismatch in trends between cases and deaths is partly related to the surge of cases in Europe without an associated increase in deaths yet. 5/7
Hotspots, best assessed by the daily death rate, are concentrated in the southeast US, northern states in Mexico, and in a corridor from Colombia through to Argentina. 6/7
Intensified transmission, measured using effective R in addition to the ongoing epidemics in the Americas, is notable in a number of countries including Spain, France, Greece, Ukraine, Turkey, most states in India and Indonesia. 7/7
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