Our new @IHME_UW #COVID19 projections are out. Estimated infections are declining and reported cases have remained roughly stable in the US overall. 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cu… Given the widespread use of rapid antigen tests, we estimate the infection-detection rate has declined to nearly 4%. With such a low infection-detection rate, the BA.5 surge that likely peaked in mid-July may have infected a substantial fraction of the population. 2/

@IHME_UW does not project a #COVID19 surge in the US in the coming weeks similar to what we have seen in parts of Europe. Our models suggest that after the end of March there should be a steady further decline in transmission. 1/ Estimated infections, reported cases, hospital census, and daily deaths continue to decline. Despite a steady return to pre #COVID19 behaviors, transmission continues to decline. 2/

The #Omicron surge is creating unprecedented levels of transmission: the daily infections are estimated to have reached 125 million, ten times the #Delta wave peak in April 2021. @IHME_UW 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cu… The massive surge in infections, however, is not leading to a 10x increase in deaths because #Omicron is 90-99% less severe. Lower severity is due to three factors: 1) the fraction of people with asymptomatic infection is up from 40% to 80-90%; 2/

#Omicron is likely to have spread to nearly all countries by now. The larger fraction asymptomatic means that the massive surge in infections will lead to a smaller but sill unprecedented increase in reported cases. 1/ Hospitalizations will increase, and in some countries this increase will lead to higher levels of hospitalization than in previous surges, including the Delta wave and the Northern Hemisphere winter surge last year. 2/

@IHME_UW new projections show that daily estimated #COVID19 infections has peaked at 6.2 million on 1/6 in the US, but daily cases will rise to nearly 1.2 million by 1/19, 2022. The infection-detection rate has declined to 22% on January 3. 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-… Our model projects 905,000 cumulative reported deaths due to #COVID19 on 5/1, this represents 79,000 additional deaths from 1/3 to 5/1. Daily reported deaths will rise to 1,930 by 1/24, 2022. 2/

No amount of media training can fix bad messaging, @CDCDirector. The root of this problem, the problem of back and forth messaging coming out of the @CDC_gov, cannot be fixed by one individual working on their personal communication skills. 1/
cnn.com/2022/01/07/pol… It worries me that @CDCDirector told @CNN: "We actually don't know how our rapid tests perform and how well they predict whether you're transmissible during the end of disease." We need to know how well rapid tests perform at this point in the pandemic. 2/

Wishing a very warm happy holidays to all – we deserve to celebrate even amid immense hardship. I have been asked frequently about safe travel and gatherings for the holidays amid #COVID19 lately. Here are my thoughts. 1/ 🔑 Being vaccinated against #COVID19 and getting a booster as soon as its available to you is absolutely key to gather safely this holiday season.

Also get a flu vaccine to further protect yourself and your family. 2/

There are early indications that the decline in the Delta surge at the national level in the US has ended. 19 states have increasing transmission, including a number of states such as AZ, CA, and NM that had previously appeared to have been declining. 1/ It is clear that the notion that #COVID19 is over is very unlikely to be true. 2/
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…

.@IHME_UW extended its forecast to Jan 1, 2022 and now predicts 777,000 cumulative reported #COVID19 deaths by the end of the year. 1/ .@IHME_UW predicts that the US will see a #COVID19 death toll of 423,000 in 2021. That number far surpasses the 354,000 reported #COVID19 deaths in 2020, despite vaccination campaigns and a better understanding of the virus. 2/

الحالات المبلغ عنها ، والاستشفاء ، والوفيات من #كوفيد١٩ آخذة في الانخفاض في منطقة الشرق الاوسط. 1/ @IHME_UW @WHOEMRO يجب الانتباه والتذكير ان #كوفيد١٩ هو السبب الاول للوفيات في المنطقة الاسبوع السابق وما زال يشكل خطر كبير على الصحة والجهاز الطبي. هذا الفيروس خطير وانتهازي اذا سمحنا له بالانتشار. 2/

In a small number of @europeanunion countries, the Delta surges seem to have peaked and are declining, including Cyprus, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, and many regions of Spain. 1/ In the rest of @europeanunion, transmission is intensifying, with Delta waves finally emerging clearly in many countries in Central Europe, with the exception of Czechia. 2/

I totally agree with my @IHME_UW colleague that we have failed to protect our youngest kids from #COVID19 and that we are about to fail them again. I will list his points below. 1/
seattletimes.com/opinion/we-fai… via @seattletimes But first, my daughter just graduated from college. If she was in school this year, I will not send her with the current planned precautions. 2/

.@IHME_UW projects that daily infections will begin increasing in late August, and daily deaths corrected for under-reporting, will drop below 250 by mid-August, but then begin to increase slowly. 1/8 Despite increasing vaccination and declining seasonality, five states have increasing transmission, based on hospitalization data. 2/8

#COVID19 surge in the African Region continues to worsen – reported daily cases increased by 25% this week, from 7,100 per day on average to 8,900 per day. Daily deaths increased to 500 per day, compared to 470 last week. 1/6 Winter in southern Africa and the circulation of escape variants (B.1.351 and B.1.617) coupled with the slow pace of vaccination will continue to drive spikes in cases and deaths. 2/6

Global #COVID19 infections at this point have likely exceeded 15 million a day, marking the worst phase of the pandemic by a factor of three or more. 1/6 The global daily reported #COVID19 cases in the last week increased to 726,300 per day on average compared to 641,000 the week before. This is a 13% increase over the last week. 2/6
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…

Globally, reported #COVID19 cases decreased to 512,000 per day on average compared to 532,800 the week before while reported daily deaths increased to 12,200 per day on average compared to 11,100 the week before. Large surges are seen in Iran, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. 1/5 in Bangladesh, daily reported cases in the last week increased to 5,200 per day on average compared to 3,000 the week before. Daily deaths in the last week increased to 110 per day on average compared to 67 the week before. 2/5

There are five distinct #COVID19 trends globally. 1) In Brazil and some neighboring countries, a P1-driven surge is unfolding with potentially huge impacts on health systems and deaths. 1/10 2) B.1.1.7 surge is unfolding in the northern states of the US and Canada. The rapid increases in cases seen in Michigan may be a marker of what may unfold in other parts of the US and Canada. 2/10

تزداد حالات ووفيات #كوفيد١٩ اليومية في الدول العربية. ومع ذالك لا تزال الحركة مرتفعة واستخدام الكمامة منخفض جدًا. هذه التصرفات والانتشار السريع لتحور B.1.1.7 هي أسباب هذه الزيادة. 1/4
covid19.healthdata.org/global يجب أن تكون التجربة الاوروبية بمثابة تحذير من المخاطر التي ينطوي عليها B.1.1.7.أوروبا فرضت اغلاقات اكثر من الدول العربية ولديها معدلات تطعيم أعلى من المنطقة ، لكنها شهدت زيادات كبيرة في الحالات اليومية وزيادات أبطأ في الوفيات اليومية. 2/4

.@IHME_UW new projections of #COVID19 cumulative deaths in the US by April 1 have been reduced to 502,000. This welcomed decline is due to 2 factors. 1/8
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-… In this week’s update, the impact of vaccination is greater due to information in the Pfizer FDA filing, which shows approximately 50% protection after the first dose, and data on a larger number of doses available sooner in the US. 2/8

In our commentary “We have to get it right: Ensuring success” in @EClinicalMed with @PeterHotez @worenst we call for a national communications strategy to counter anti-vaccine misleading information. 1/12
thelancet.com/journals/eclin… Addressing the concerns and ensuring widespread use and compliance of vaccines means that we will require an unprecedented level of communication between federal agencies and the American people. 2/12

IHME’s latest forecasts indicate that #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1 has increased in @WHOEMRO from 165,847 last week to 182,311. As of today, about 56,681 deaths have occurred in the region, and our estimates suggest 125,630 deaths from now until January 1. 1/30 If mask wearing in public increases to 95%, there will be around 99,217 deaths, and about 83,094 lives could be saved. This is about a 66% reduction in the number of deaths expected between now and January 1. 2/30