Thread by @pmdfoster

🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚢🚚🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🚨NEW: nearly 2/3 customs agents say they don’t have enough staff to handle coming border, per survey of @BIFA members...my latest via @FT and why companies are struggling to prepare. 1/thread
on.ft.com/2ZB9yqJ

@BIFA @FT I'm not going to rehears entire border issues again (see threads passim) but a couple of key takeaways

1) #Covid19 has made it worse

2) companies still need details; Border Operating Model in July has not answered many Qs

(full release @BIFA here)/2

bifa.org/news/articles/…

@BIFA @FT So as Robert Keen @BIFA_DG tells me, in a survey back in May "only" 50% of members said they'd be short of staff - now its 64% - which tallies with members raising concerns on Covid-19 /3

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG Because while it is true that Govt has put £50m into increasing numbers/training the reality is that many freight forwarding companies (whose staff will facilitate new border processes) have been furloughing staff dealing with Covid cashflow crunch...not rushing to take on risk/4

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG This is why Richard Burnett @RHARichardB and others have been banging on about government need to intervene more actively in a commercial marketplace that Whitehall (and politicians) are failing to understand the dynamics of (see 4, above) /5

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB The result as @RHARichardB @BIFA_DG and experts like @AnnaJerzewska say is that we're nowhere close to being ready for Jan 1 - deal or no deal.

But it's not just about the 50,000 customs clearance experts that don't yet exist...the chronic lack of info. For EG.../6

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska As @AnnaJerzewska tells me, the government has said that business will be eligible for simplified eligibility requirements for CCG Comprehensive Customs Guarantee (duty deferral) and Entry in Declarant's Records (EIDR) status (for checks at warehouse)...BUT no guidance, as yet /7

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska The result is that business is getting conflicting advice, says @AnnaJerzewska on whether they should hold out for simplified regime, or protect themselves by getting full registrations. The result is stasis/confusion etc. /8

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska FWIW I did ask the Cabinet Office (which runs the Border Delivery Group) for guidance on WHEN these details will be shared with relevant businesses. Back came the reply: "in due course".

Yes, that is the sound of hair follicles being torn from scalps /9

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska This is the problem - it's not just about customs agents or form filling - but about all the actors - hauliers, brokers, relevant government departments, port authorities and traders - working in concert with each other. Which brings us to IT..../10

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska The government has a new Goods Vehicle Management System (GVMS) and the Smart Freight Service app in order for hauliers to check they're good to go and not turn Kent into a lorry park....but it's still not available for users to train on. In fact..../11

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska According to @lisaocarroll scoop this AM on slides shared with Cab Cmme responsible for all this, "beta testing" on Smart Freight won't start "until the end of November". Wow. Let's hope its not integral to the system in any way. /12

theguardian.com/politics/2020/…

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska @lisaocarroll If you want a broader view of the issues - which really centre on trader readiness and their capacity to get ready when they wake up to the scale of change coming, last week's select committee with @AnnaJerzewska @RHARichardB @RobHardyFR8 is here/13

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/d0…

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska @lisaocarroll @RobHardyFR8 So what is going on? Why is the government so apparently cavalier about industry warnings/frustrations...and the risks of 'no deal', which they just made much higher by putting a gun to EU heads over the Irish Protocol? /14

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska @lisaocarroll @RobHardyFR8 Good Q, to which you hear a variety of answers from Whitehall insiders and industry...

One is that that Frost and co have actually given up on getting a zero tariff/zero quota deal on terms they find acceptable... hence move to re-write NI Protocol /15

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska @lisaocarroll @RobHardyFR8 There is a brute logic to this, since the Protocol as negotiated is incompatible with an ultra-sovereigntist view of Brexit which is the logic for refusing to agree sufficient State Aid/LPF elements to get the zero/zero deal you need to make NI Protocol work /16

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska @lisaocarroll @RobHardyFR8 If that's right - and who knows, but it logical inference of the way that UK Internal Market bill is drafted (see Section 45 totally disapplying the Protocol) - and you know the border is going to be a mess, there is political logic in having "EU intransigence" to blame /17

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska @lisaocarroll @RobHardyFR8 No matter that Article 16 of the Protocol and the Arbitration mechanism in the Withdrawal Agreement gives you plenty of ways to address your concerns...no-one will say it right out, but on one reading, this is now just blame game management /18

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska @lisaocarroll @RobHardyFR8 Or not. Perhaps its an honest calculation that the EU will do a 'zero/zero' deal with no UK State Aid regulator + re-write the NI Protocol in face of UK aggression. That EU leaders' will intervene.

Or perhaps both - i.e. an acceptance UK can live with either outcome? /19

@BIFA @FT @BIFA_DG @RHARichardB @AnnaJerzewska @lisaocarroll @RobHardyFR8 But with friction coming to the border deal or 'no deal' (it'll be worse in a 'no deal' but no-one can say for sure how much worse, so easy to put those fears aside) it seems clear that "chaos in Kent" will not be much of a determining factor. Seat belts please. ENDS