Thread by @pmdfoster

Intense clarity of thought, as ever , by @AntonSpisak unpicking the "blockade" issue in @prospect_uk
- one level petulant nonsense (with some fault on both sides) on another a serious indicator of lack of trust 1/thread

prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/brexi…

@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk On the first "petulance" point, there is some blame on both sides.

The EU has been using 'third country' listing as leverage (some unnecessary gloating behind scenes here) but the talk of a "blockade" is wildly inflammatory spin from the UK side which has safeguards /2

@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk As Spisak points out - and I've been trying to point out - a "blockade" would violate Art 6 of the Protocol that requires "best endeavours" on NI-GB trade, but Art 16 offers even greater safeguards. /3

@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk Note that you don't need riots, unrest or terror to invoke Art 16 - just the "diversion of trade". It's a low bar.

But as Spisak says the row over "third country listing" is emblematic of lack of state of trust in talks...but also speaks to deeper issue/4

@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk The UK position "we'll notify you of any changes, we're convergent on day one" is a re-emergence of a fundamental misapprehension about how EU works, and would treat the UK as a "third country" after #Brexit - viz, like any other. /5

@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk The issue is NOT day one convergence, its about the UK promise of divergence on day 10, day 100, day 1,000, day 10,000 and creating a system of trust/visibility that enables a 'zero for zero' FTA /6

@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk And of course, beneath this is the knowledge that the UK will have to diverge on plant/animal health standards if it wants that trade deal with the USA - and yes, in the clash of those regulatory hegemons, the EU is prepared to use its leverage. /7

@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk The UK is, of course, piggy-in-the-middle here (welcome to #Brexit) and what we've seen this last week is the piggy starting to squeal, squeezed in Brussels and in Washington, as @DominicRaab will have felt - not just on Good Friday, but more fundamentally on trade/8

@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk @DominicRaab The UK approach "we'll notify you as a sovereign power" is similarly infecting the state aid/level-playing field discussion which must be resolved to turn the key on an zero/zero FTA...that will in turn help resolve the NI Protocol issues. /9

@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk @DominicRaab The UK can do the deal or it can squeal, do a 'no deal' and beat its sovereign breast, and perhaps (I don't know) politically that's now necessary for both sides to reach a genuine Canada-style deal (with tariffs) after the fact. But the basic choice set will remain. 10/ENDS