Can the Green Deal really be considered as Europe's new growth strategy? A super short thread, with some numbers 👇 #ClimateChange #GreenDeal #EUGreenDeal #SOTEU
1. According to the macro-models used by the European Commission itself to assess the new 2030 climate target, the answer is: NO. At best, the EC economy would expand by 0.5% due to increased climate ambition.
2. This is not surprising. Other studies have illustrated that the macroeconomic effect of Green New Deals is likely to be small (around +0.1% of annual GDP growth according the literature review conducted by Gueret et al, 2019)
newforum.org/climate/on-the…
3. For the time being (but deeper analysis will come) I would then still stick to my Oct 2019 point 👇 bruegel.org/2019/10/coming…
4. To be politically sustainable in the long-run, policymakers must be honest about the nature of the Green Deal and not over-promise on the growth aspect. Saving our climate is already an important mission, let's focus on this and ensure the process is as smooth as possible. END
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