Thread by @pmdfoster

So the fury continues about @borisjohnson threat to overwrite #Brexit withdrawal agreement...but the EU hasn't walked....and the shape of a Brexit deal is there to be done. The unanswered Q is whether the UK wants to do it - my latest via @ft 1/

ft.com/content/7eb79c…

@BorisJohnson @FT It might seem like all is lost, but it is notable that @MichelBarnier is still talking - if only to make sure that the EU doesn't get the blame - and waiting and watching to see if UK moves to make a deal...the shape of which seems pretty obvious. It goes like this/2

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier The UK does a deal to unlock a 'zero tariff, zero quota' Free Trade Agreement - which of course requires both sides to reach a deal on State Aid and level playing field...but the shape of that deal IS possible. See this @instituteforgov report for ideas/3

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier @instituteforgov It wd fall way short of the EU’s opening demand for dynamic alignment/ECJ but would require the UK to accept “shared principles” on subsidies that go beyond broad WTO definitions; an independent regulator with legal redress and, probably, a dispute resolution mechanism./4

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier @instituteforgov To be clear the UK - as @DavidGHFrost
said y'day - the UK is a long way from this as their State Aid paper showed. And fact that they've been rowing about this since before Christmas in London (Leadsom v Cummings then) suggests it's a real issue /5

gov.uk/government/new…

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier @instituteforgov @DavidGHFrost BUT if you get that zero/zero deal then the Northern Ireland Protocol issues CAN be massaged away.

a) with zero tariffs the 'at risk' issue of goods paying tariffs GB into NI evaporates (still lots of SPS to do but tariffs point is sorted) /6

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier @instituteforgov @DavidGHFrost The 'reach back' issue with Article 10 can also be sorted via some clear guidance from the Commission, since you'll have a baseline deal on state aid anyway - @BrunoBrussels has talked of a 'codicil' addressing this issue (more here) /7
ft.com/content/de1af5…

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier @instituteforgov @DavidGHFrost @BrunoBrussels There is of course a huge problem of political choreography on both sides now.

The EU has set a Sept 30 deadline for UK to drop the legislation (not happening) but Johnson and co are also a long way up the tree, so to speak. /8

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier @instituteforgov @DavidGHFrost @BrunoBrussels One fix is Commission starts infringement proceedings on Sept 30 before bill becomes law - it believes it can - to satisfy its honour.

While the UK side stops the bill actually coming law so that..../9

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier @instituteforgov @DavidGHFrost @BrunoBrussels IF an zero/zero FTA can be done and the NI Protocol issues addressed, then that will come at the price of UK dropping the legislation (or the offending sections 42-45) as a price of a deal.

The EU and EU Parliament already clear on this. /10

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier @instituteforgov @DavidGHFrost @BrunoBrussels The only question is whether the UK wants to do the deal.

Or if the pivot to sovereignty means that the EU baseline ask on State Aid/level playing field is just too much for Cummings and CO. /11

@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier @instituteforgov @DavidGHFrost @BrunoBrussels IF that is the case, then there is a brute logic to the move to re-write the Northern Ireland Protocol because a 'no deal' super-sovereignty FTA is incompatible with elements of the Protocol as it stands...but that way, as we've seen, a stormy future lies. ENDS