Thread by @sundersays

Weekly Covid attitudes memo, no 24!

Significant short-term attitude shifts
- Lowest govt approval to date
- Big rise in pessimism over last 4 weeks.
- Broad 2/3 permission for national lockdown if needed.

+ vg new comparative study from @MiC_Global

britishfuture.org/wp-content/upl…

70% think Covid is getting worse, up from 54% last week. Hopes that the situation was improving have collapsed over last 4 weeks - from 48% to 14% since late Aug. (YouGov)

Govt approval on Covid -33 this week, from -18 last week. This is the lowest since the start @YouGov

Most Conservative voters still approve: 58% to 39% (+19)

Over 65s: 42% approve vs 55% disapproval (-13)
Under 24s: 18% vs 72% disapproval (-56)

Caution about Covid and rising pessimism about how its being handled generates broad public permission for a national lockdown if required (66%), though a much larger group (27%) are opposed than in the Spring.

So 2020 is now going to get worse before it gets better.

9% say its been a good year so far
A stoic 41% say it has been OK

On the bright side, Brexit is back!
- Brexit at its highest salience since Covid began: 51% pick as a top 3 issue with YouGov
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

A plurality opposed the government’s position on breaching international law: polls varied between 25-49 (-24) and 33-46 (-13) with a large number of Don’t Knows.

This was @OpiniumResearch

Here 25-47 (YouGov for Best for Britain)
- Many more women (1/3) than men (1/5) in Don’t Know.
- ABC1 opposition to government was 22-53 (-31)
- C2DE opposition 28-38 (-10): narrower but against too.

That the 'OK to breach international law' polls are so very similar to the 'no deal is a good idea' polls (a stable 1/4 in support all along) offers some clear indicators as to what drives attitudes here.

Interlude: a thread of personal thoughts/tips on some of the dilemmas this presents to "activist lawyers" and their allies.

Attitudes on Covid have been changing pretty incrementally. This week saw some of the biggest week-on-week shifts for a few months.

Whether a temporary coincidence of bad news stories, or sustained slump in govt approval, or shifts again with new cases/restrictions, is tbc.

Is this 'the new normal'? A major new 7 country study from @MiC_Global steps back to look at the bigger picture. (This is data from June 19th-28th in UK, June/July overall)

7 country overview here.

America is different: most sense of division, lowest trust in government, keenest to see efforts to address division

Britain is an outlier, in many ways, sometimes suprisingly

moreincommon.com/media/03rgk0wg…

UK slides here: lots of fascinating details

moreincommon.com/media/ucvfntgq…

The British public's verdict on the UK government's handling of Covid is "incompetent, but pretty fair"

This Competence v Fairness distinction is not found in the other countries' responses.

Here is some bad news for @toadmeister and the Lockdown Sceptics; they seem especially un-influential in Britain, where people (8/10) are most likely to think the restrictions have been completely reasonable and proportional

UK ranks highest on people accepting it is our duty to follow rules (90%), but do we trust others to play their part? A big 31% gap in trust in other people. (This trust gap is incredibly wide in France – 50% - and v.narrow in Germany – 5%). [Are the media one driver here?]

Some interesting news for @togethercoalit in this comparative study. UK top for solidarity during Covid.

Over 60% of people feel the crisis has shown that most people care about each other – and have felt the support and care of others themselves. But 4/10 have felt alone.

* 54% in Britain feel worried that Covid will have a worse impact on people who belong to racial, ethnic or
religious minorities in the UK.
* Fewer people in Britain than any other country (of the 6) say they would refuse a safe and effective vaccine.
{Several studies find this}

Another nuance/paradox. UK public have highest appetite to seize the opportunity of Covid to make important changes (64%), rather than trying to return to normal - but most people doubt that will happen (55%).

So lots of interesting big picture findings in that study from More in Common. While the latest polling has some quite dramatic short-term fluctuations, that could have fairly big political implications if they stick, with next 6-8 weeks on Covid and Brexit very much in flux.

The 'fairness' point is quite striking
- furloughing a big part of that
- Maybe lockdown restrictions (fair sacrifices by all) saw more cohesion than complex/subjective arguments on social distancing and right pace of relaxing rules? (At least the first time around anyway)

Government in a good place at 40% approval, but may be quite jittery if 30% and below becomes a norm. (There may still be a crisis boost *within* the 30%)

Govt will know it needs to deliver or Starmer's approach (support aims + challenge on competence) may have broader appeal

The More in Common study is the latest of several to show UK attitudes to migration as relatively pro-migration in comparative context. The context of a pandemic has generated more short-term scepticism in Europe than in the UK

This is overall 'govt approval': its v similar to Covid approval during a pandemic.

Could this present a pragmatic political case for making a Brexit deal? Unless govt with 30% approval + 30% Covid approval wants to risk a Brexit policy [no deal] which 25% of people approve of.