Abraar Karan Profile picture
infectious disease doctor, epidemiologist, researcher @stanford

Sep 22, 2020, 5 tweets

1/ Contact tracing efforts in 2 counties in North Carolina described in today's MMWR

-->High % of #covid19 cases reported having "no contacts" or their contacts couldn't be reached

-->median time from sample collection to calling a case was 6 days

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…

2/ Authors cited concerns that cases may not refer contacts in fear they would risk loss of work or other economic consequences

They also cited the need for more rapport building.

Different states have had different experiences of course

3/ Data from Maryland & New Jersey indicated 50-52% of index cases reported having "no contacts" either

Clear issues- if median time from receiving a sample for testing to contacting a positive case is 6 days, your testing-isolation window is far too wide/needs to be much faster

4/ Moreover, if 30-50% of your cases are saying they have had "no contacts" but this seems unrealistic, then you have a problem here as well that is not unsolvable but needs attention

If they do tell you their contacts but you can't reach 25-50% of them, you have another problem

5/ The short end of the story is that contact tracing is critically important; & part of that is building trust, & improving the tracing process to be more efficient and more effective.

Curious to see data from other states/countries

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