Thread by @andrewsweiss

THREAD: The Kremlin’s outlandish handling of Europe’s concerns about the #Navalny assasination attempt and the crisis in Belarus is setting up a rupture similar to what occurred after the Ukraine crisis in 2014. 1/x

During the initial phase of the #coronavirus pandemic, there were hopes in German, French, and UK govt circles that it might be possible to lower the temperature and get Putin to focus on challenges closer to home. That turned out to be wishful thinking. 2/x

In reality, the Kremlin hasn’t budged an inch on its core agenda. In a new paper for Carnegie’s #GlobalRussia project, I explain why the Kremlin’s relations with Europe’s leading powers are essentially stuck on auto-pilot and why that’s increasingly risky for Moscow. 3/x

On the most important issues (eg Ukraine, the new east-west military standoff, cyber attacks, targeted killings, political meddling) Russian behavior is following well-established, self-destructive patterns. The Kremlin’s overreach and missteps at the moment are hard to miss. 4/x

Instead of playing artfully on Europe’s longstanding internal divisions and worsening EU tensions with the Trump administration, Russia has sought short-term advantage at the expense of possible long-term re-normalization. 5/x

Early in the pandemic, the Kremlin gleefully tried to exploit the EU’s fumbling response when Italy became one of the first COVID hostpots by sending convoys of chemical weapons troops to the hard-hit Bergamo region as well as to Serbia/Republika Srpska. 6/x

The Kremlin shows little ability to rein in this penchant for theatrics & spoiler behavior. Antics in peripheral places like Africa have undermined France’s Macron controversial strategic dialogue with Putin which he once hoped would shift Europe’s overall policy. 7/x

In Germany, Russian state media and proxies are amplifying the views of conspiracy theorists and QAnon-type fringe groups that are fighting the Merkel government’s COVID health restrictions. German neo-Nazis have been trained in a secret facility near St Petersburg 8/x

The UK has tried to push back vs Russian malign activities on its territory but is hampered by light-touch regulations that create entry points for Russian illicit wealth and the cozy access that Kremlin-tied players enjoy to the UK's economic and political elite 9/x

Still, it’s the Kremlin’s in-your-face behavior about Navalny/Belarus that's pushed relations w Europe to a new low. Putin is pulling the rug out from under leaders like Merkel/Macron who want to keep lines of communication open, protect major projects like Nord Stream 2 10/x

The Kremlin has frequently overestimated the quality of the cards it has to play in Europe. Repeated Russian attempts to split NATO or EU have fallen flat over several decades. The staying power that undergirds them has been quite impressive even in extreme circumstances. 11/x

As I argue in the paper, Russian leaders have demonstrated a repeated propensity to shoot themselves in the foot, which has stiffened European resolve and transatlantic ties. Will that pattern repeat itself? carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/24/rus… END