Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GlobalRussia
Most recents (13)
THREAD: The Kremlin’s outlandish handling of Europe’s concerns about the #Navalny assasination attempt and the crisis in Belarus is setting up a rupture similar to what occurred after the Ukraine crisis in 2014. 1/x 
During the initial phase of the #coronavirus pandemic, there were hopes in German, French, and UK govt circles that it might be possible to lower the temperature and get Putin to focus on challenges closer to home. That turned out to be wishful thinking. 2/x
In reality, the Kremlin hasn’t budged an inch on its core agenda. In a new paper for Carnegie’s #GlobalRussia project, I explain why the Kremlin’s relations with Europe’s leading powers are essentially stuck on auto-pilot and why that’s increasingly risky for Moscow. 3/x
Great @WSJ deep dive story on 🇨🇳🇷🇺 by @yarotrof & @tggrove. @DmitriTrenin nails it: “There is an increasing realization in Russia that getting too close to the Chinese giant can lead to undesirable dependence on Beijing.” Couple of additional thoughts 👇 wsj.com/articles/weary…
2/ Moscow indeed becomes increasingly alerted to and concerned about its growing dependency on China, as is evident in recent conversations with 🇷🇺 senior government officials and business executives from both private sector & SOEs.
3/ It's not really about the mutual distrust exposed by early stages of COVID management, and not about spying including the most recent case since great powers spy on each other, even closest allies (Angela Merkel can tell you all about it)...
THREAD: In the latest installment of Carnegie’s #GlobalRussia series, Richard Sokolsky and Eugene Rumer peer around the corner from today’s highly antagonistic U.S.-Russian relationship and imagine what the relationship might look like in 2030. 1/14 carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/15/u.s…
U.S.-Russian relations are at the lowest point since the Cold War with no signs of improvement. But that is unlikely to last forever. Global trends and domestic political dynamics in both countries will necessitate the resumption of dialogue between them. 2/14
By 2030, United States and #Russia are likely to face a different global landscape—a world with more intense U.S.-China competition, more nuclear and advanced conventional weapons, more conflicts, and technological transformations. 3/14 globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global…
THREAD: For years, the Kremlin's been embracing populists & nationalists across Europe & U.S. Yet how have things played out for some of its closest allies in Italy/Austria? Not quite like Moscow hoped, according to the newest installment of Carnegie’s #GlobalRussia project 1/
The #GlobalRussia project has focused on Russia’s growing assertiveness in regions the Kremlin largely neglected after the Cold War—eg the Middle East, NE Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Europe is another story: it has always been too important for the Kremlin to ignore. 2/
Moscow has trouble distinguishing Europe from the threat posed by the US which is why it looks for ways to plant wedges. Post-2014 realities (sanctions, diplomatic isolation, NATO deterrence moves) have encouraged Moscow to meddle more blatantly in European domestic politics 3/
THREAD: Amid all the fascination with Russia’s inroads in Africa, why are we overlooking the case of South Africa? It’s a fascinating story of Kremlin overreach, predatory behavior & Cold War ties that we dug into for Carnegie’s #GlobalRussia project: carnegieendowment.org/2019/12/16/nuc… 1/
During Jacob Zuma’s ill-starred presidency (2009–2018), the Kremlin sought to wrest a geopolitically significant state out of the West’s orbit and to create a partnership that could serve as a springboard for expanded influence elsewhere in Africa. 2/
Moscow’s strategy was multifaceted, capitalizing on well-established close ties with Zuma, a former ANC senior intelligence official with extensive Soviet bloc connections. The Soviets were key allies during the anti-apartheid struggle and active throughout southern Africa. 3/
The privatization of Russian foreign policy continues.
Then: Venezuela and Igor Sechin.
Now: Central African Republic and Yevgeny Prigozhin
Then: Venezuela and Igor Sechin.
Now: Central African Republic and Yevgeny Prigozhin
“Prigozhin’s subordinates [have] considerable latitude to act, even when their moves might not be completely in accord with the stated policies of the government or the niceties of international law.”
Source: “Late to the Party: Russia’s Return to Africa” by @pstronski carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/16/lat… #GlobalRussia
THREAD: Trump’s clumsy decision to pull out of Syria has given rise to innumerable assessments Russia is now replacing the US as the Mideast’s main power broker. But, setting aside all misgivings about a spectacular act of national security malpractice, is that actually true? 1/
My Carnegie colleague Eugene Rumer is not so sure. Check out his in-depth survey of the interplay between US disengagement from the region and Russia’s more assertive approach: “Russia in the Middle East: Jack of All Trades, Master of None” 2/ ceip.org/p-80233
We often lose sight of the fact that Russian ties to Middle East go back centuries. Moscow’s post-1991 withdrawal from the region was more of an aberration than the norm. This video walks you through a couple hundred years of history. 3/
THREAD: Emboldened by a series of tactical gains in the Mideast, the Kremlin is turning its sights on Africa. How serious a challenge is this new effort? /1
Later this week Putin is hosting 50+ African leaders for the first-ever Russia-Africa Summit. I took an in-depth look at Russian inroads in a new study, “Late to the Party: Russia’s Return to Africa.” #GlobalRussia /2 ceip.org/p-80056
The USSR provided economic aid and security ties to African states & liberation movements during the Cold War. But that legacy provides only limited springboard for Russia today. /3
If Russian support for Venezuela is more symbolic than substantial, as this article rightly suggests, why did the Trump administration make it sound like the Kremlin effectively blocked Maduro’s ouster? @AKurmanaev nytimes.com/2019/06/17/wor…
Here's Pompeo on May 1 talking about how Maduro "had an airplane on the tarmac, he was ready to leave this morning as we understand it and the Russians indicated he should stay. He was headed for Havana." cnn.com/2019/04/30/pol…
Trump later walked that story about the plane on the tarmac back and called it a "rumor."
THREAD Why is Putin intervening in #Venezuela in such a flamboyant and provocative fashion? The Kremlin’s game in Latin America is mainly about geopolitics, payback, and cold hard cash. #GlobalRussia 1/
As explained in this very fine paper by Julia Gurganus, fmr National Intelligence Officer for Russia/Eurasia, “Capitalizing on opportunities to gain a foothold in Latin America is a familiar strategy for Russia”
carnegieendowment.org/2018/05/03/rus… 2/
carnegieendowment.org/2018/05/03/rus… 2/
Here’s how General John Kelly, then-commander of US Southern Command, described the Russian approach in March 2015 3/
How much of Russia's return to the global stage is a fundamentally new phenomenon? Eugene Rumer and Julia Gurganus explain the broad continuity with centuries-old vectors of Russian foreign policy in a new paper for Carnegie's #GlobalRussia project carnegieendowment.org/2019/02/20/rus… 1/
As Rumer and Gurganus explain, “Russian foreign policy has been building up to its present expansive phase for over two decades.” 2/
“Continuity with the Soviet era and even earlier periods of Russian history is a hallmark of the Kremlin’s current foreign policy and the toolkit it relies on to advance its goals.” 3/
Rattling nerves in US govt circles is often a key part of the Kremlin’s gameplan. Here’s the original NezGaz account of Russian-Venezuelan pol-mil dialogue on this issue. #GlobalRussia ng.ru/politics/2018-…
Carnegie’s Julia Gurganus (fmr NIO for Russia/Eurasia) explained Russia’s geopolitical game in Latin America as part of our #GlobalRussia project 2/ carnegieendowment.org/2018/05/03/rus…
Moscow may view its gains in Central and South America as payback for what it has viewed as U.S. interference in Russia’s backyard 3/
“Our longstanding rival Russia is exploiting a new playbook to divide us from within and to separate us from our allies” @MarkWarner #GlobalRussia
“Mr. Putin has at his disposal a wide array of nonconventional tools...these are designed to help Russia undermine its enemies in the West....many are deployed by non-state surrogates” @MarkWarner #GlobalRussia
“We are now engaged in a war in the shadows. I am not convinced we are winning” @MarkWarner #GlobalRussia
