Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:
1. Cases
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital deaths / admissions
4. Covid triage
5. Prevalence
6. Contact tracing
7. The Vallance-tracker
8. Mortality
9. Miscellaneous
#ahcveng
1. Cases
1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.
Source: Gov dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType…
1. Cases
1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need / NHS) and pillar 2 (community swab) cases and % positive. The left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so.
Source: PHE covid surveillance report
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
2. Care home outbreaks
*Critical data*. In week 38 there were 134 acute respiratory incidents with at least 1 +ve covid test.
Source: weekly PHE report as above
3. Hospital deaths and admissions
Covid deaths from NHS England stats (2nd wave now visible): england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…
Covid admissions (total & recent) & covid patients on ventilators (predictor of deaths): coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?are…
3b. An aside on admissions
Covid admissions are still growing at a linear, rather than exponential, rate. *This could change*.
4. Triage
111 covid triage should be an excellent lead indicator of hospital admissions, *particularly* for the aged 70+
Thrown off recently by school / college kids seeking tests, but now falling back. No sharp increase in the vulnerable 70+.
digital.nhs.uk/data-and-infor…
5. Incidence (ONS)
17 day doubling, faster in the young.
We want *more* contrast between incidence in the old versus young, current policy holds that back: the sooner it passes through the young, the sooner it passes over the elderly / vulnerable.
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
6. Contact tracing
Each isolation via contact tracing has cost £300k, and most of these are our own housemates and guests whom we could have told anyway.
7. The Vallance-tracker
At Monday's presser @uksciencechief and @CMO_England presented only one scenario for the progression of UK cases (by report date), to 50,000 per day by mid-Oct; so it seems right to hold them to account on this until any alternative is presented.
8. Mortality
This will be an interesting one to watch for the rest of the year, if covid has taken a lot of people who might otherwise not have survived Nov/Dec flu season.
Note 2014/15 and '19: a light mortality year creates "dry tinder".
9. Miscellaneous 1: Spain
Spanish case doubling rate (about 3 weeks?):
Incidence seems to be decreasing through Spain now: 2nd wave decelerating.
isciii.es/QueHacemos/Ser…
9. Miscellaneous 2:
*Very* interesting SAGE paper published regarding the practicalities of shielding the vulnerable as a tactic for minimising impact of covid epidemic. Well worth a read:
gov.uk/government/pub…
9. Miscellaneous 3:
On the same subject, an interesting snippet from another SAGE paper:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Oops last month below
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