Thread by @RijoMJohn

27 Sep: India crossed 6M reported #COVID19 cases & 95574 deaths. Only 9.6L active cases
👉Beyond the rosy recovery rates, follow this thread to know important trends upto dist. level that matters
👉1M new cases & 12K deaths were added in the past 11 days

(1/n)

👉Cases growth (1.5%) has decreased considerably over a week
👉7-day avg. daily cases showed some decline & is beginning to look up again
👉Daily active cases rebounding after being in -ve territory for few days
👉Daily tests average 10.8L last week
👉Daily deaths ~1095 (2/n)

👉Growth of tests barely above that of cases now
👉Daily TPR at 8.2% and has shown a marginal decline over the past 2 weeks
👉52% of all tests so far are Rapid antigen
👉Most states do not report test results by type of tests
(3/n)

👉There is considerable variation in the aggregate daily testing reported by all states together and that by ICMR.
👉This variation (taken as 7-day avg.) reached a high of 2L few days ago and is now on a decline again
👉Shows the serious reporting problems
(4/n)

👉Kerala has the highest avg. daily growth of cases at 3.7%
👉Only about 7 states got TPR<5% now
👉Very high TPR in MH, Goa & SK
(5/n)

👉Although the country has a relatively low mortality rate at 1.57% the variation across states is high
👉 high MR in states such as MH, GJ, PB & DL are worrying
👉Many north eastern states & KL has very low MR
(6/n)

👉Trends in mortality rates for both closed cases (recovered+deceased) and total cases
👉Both these rates are suppose to converge by the end of pandemic
👉High variations in these rates are apparent in most states
👉The mortality rate is going up in AS, GA & HP
(7/n)

👉The daily reported numbers from y'day across states
(8/n)

👉Trends in daily new cases across states.
👉Some of the states like KA & TS showing signs of rebound in cases
👉Others like KL, RJ & MN are reporting new highs daily
(9/n)

👉Trends in daily test per million per day and test positive rate across states with at least 20K reported cases
👉Karnataka, West Bengal & Jharkand seem to be reducing daily tests even as TPR is increasing
(10/n)

👉51.7% of cases & 63.6% of deaths now come from top 50 districts
👉This share has consistently declined indicating the wider spread
👉Bengaluru Urban, Pune, Mumbai, Kolkata, Thiruvanathapuram, Coimbatore, Indore, Jaipur etc. are all reporting new daily highs on avg.
(11/n)

TL;DR: India is fighting not only a COVID19 pandemic, but also a pandemic of bad data reporting across states. Authorities need to realize that good data reporting is the key for public policy making & can only aid in controlling the pandemic itself
(n/n)

@epigiri @MenonBioPhysics @nit_set @Rukmini @_YogendraYadav @vikramchandra @Nidhi
@ranjona @RKRadhakrishn @aparanjape @RemaNagarajan @snehamordani @abantika77 @dhanyarajendran @sumanthraman @GargiRawat @Mundra08 @AnantBhan @paimadhu