Make sense of where we are with #Brexit with my latest #BrexitDiagram - Series 5, V3.0.0
Headline numbers
(compared with V2.0.0, 18.09.2020)
No Deal - 49% (⬆️ 3%)
Minimal Deal - 43% (⬆️ 3%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (⬇️ 6%)
Essentially rather stable - but threat to remove whip from Tories has receded, hence change to latter
The central point: what does the House of Lords do to the Internal Market Bill, and can the UK side manage to reassure the EU - either by letting the Lords gut the Bill, or by finding an agreement - that can lessen worries on the EU side?
Thinking about this diagram has drawn heavily on discussions with @nick_gutteridge @DavidHenigUK @JornTychsen @FabianZuleeg, and on writing by @AlbertoNardelli - I'd welcome their comments on this!
Background for Series 5 is on my blog here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
High res PNG and PDF files, the draw(dot)io XML, and the XLS for the workings will always be uploaded here:
jonworth.eu/series5
As ever feedback very welcome!
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