Thread by @roberto_blanko

#Covid19 myth #4: Thread

1/
In nearly every argument about the necessity of a lockdown the phrase "...but Sweden" is used all around the globe.

So the question is:
Is Sweden 🇸🇪 really a role model for saving the economy by refusing to lockdown?

Spoiler alert: NO

2/
With Eurostat's data for the GDP development in Q2/20 and the Cumulated deaths until the end of Q2 and the respective Government response Index within Q2/20 from Ourworldindata, I analyzed the given data.

Data file with sources can be found as a reply to this tweet

3/
It's worth noting that also Sweden implemented measures like banning public gatherings with more than 50 people and banning visits of homes designed for older people.
So the argument that Sweden didn't implement measures at all, is just false:
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-hea…

4/
When comparing the countries' Response stringency to the GDP decline, Sweden looks okay.
But the GDP development in Q2/2020 is better for Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ireland and Norway

Fun fact: Iceland 🇮🇸 had a slightly lower Government Response Stringency than Sweden

5/
In general there seems to be no link between the stringency of the Government's response to the GDP decline.

Ireland 🇮🇪 had the highest government response stringency AND the lowest GDP decline overall

6/
Visualizing cumulated deaths per Million population vs. the Government response stringency, Sweden has an extraordinarily high death toll.

Combined with the fact that some countries had a lower GDP decline and a lower death toll, Sweden 🇸🇪 is NO role model at all

Dropbox link for the data table
dropbox.com/s/vtpjactxeh68…

7/
My gold standard for judging a country's #Covid outcome would be combining a low death toll with a low GDP decline.

For Q2/20 the best suitors as role models of the observed countries are:
Finland, Norway, Lithuania and Estonia with Lithuania 🇱🇹 being the tight winner