Thread by @pmdfoster

Today in a leaked letter Lord Frost concedes that EU will not give UK preferential trade terms to UK cars...but that is not what @BorisJohnson
promised on 2019 election trail. So does that matter? 1/thread

ft.com/content/4fa473…

@BorisJohnson First the letter (that was first reported by @faisalislam) which tl;dr says "we asked for preferential terms, the EU said no"....

This relates particularly to so-called 'rules of origin' - the need for a car to be 45% UK-made to get 0-tariff access to EU under an FTA/2

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam The problem, as @Petercampbell1 points out is that companies like Nissan and Toyota use parts from Japan and the EU won't let those count or "cross-cumulate" as UK-inputs....not that that should come as any surprise. /3

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 .@MichelBarnier has been banging on for ages about UK not being allowed to be an "assembly hub" off the EU after Brexit...see this speech from Sept 2. /4

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 @MichelBarnier But it *might* comes as surprise to UK car workers and voters who were told by @BorisJohnson on the stump that it is "absolutely vital we protect supply chains, we protect Nissan Motors, we make sure people continue to want to invest in our country" /5

autovistagroup.com/news-and-insig…

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 @MichelBarnier Is there a risk that the No 10 machine is underestimating the impact of #brexit on the car industry? And whether voters might feel angry or short changed?

Genuine question - because I bow to them on this stuff; they are masters of the "narrative" and alternative facts /6

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 @MichelBarnier So when you see this extraordinary tweet from @Conservatives it's a similar thing - as many have pointed out UK internal market bill doesn't "guarantee seamless" trade, au contraire.../7

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 @MichelBarnier @Conservatives Take a read of this report I did this week after @Foodanddrinkfed warned some trade would be "unviable" as a result of regulatory border that's coming in the Irish Sea.../8

ft.com/content/c8c1c9…

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 @MichelBarnier @Conservatives @Foodanddrinkfed This is the @Foodanddrinkfed graphic setting out the new frictions...doesn't look all that seamless - though the UK Gov hopes that some of this frictions CAN be smoothed away. /9

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 @MichelBarnier @Conservatives @Foodanddrinkfed Everyone is waiting to see the details - not least industry - and the Govt is spending £200m on a trader support service...but companies are still going to be doing a lot of paperwork, which carries time and cost. Whatever it is, it's not "seamless" /10

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 @MichelBarnier @Conservatives @Foodanddrinkfed That doesn't mean it cant work - and cross-channel trade in autos will still work because EU and UK will cumulate "bilaterally" - it just might favour EU companies with higher local content percentages. /11

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 @MichelBarnier @Conservatives @Foodanddrinkfed One of the really interesting things is whether - deal or no deal - any of this cuts through; how hard it will land politically, beyond the respective remainer/brexit bubbles. /12

@BorisJohnson @faisalislam @Petercampbell1 @MichelBarnier @Conservatives @Foodanddrinkfed No-one really knows - even affected industry is v cloudy on impacts - but arguably that isn't helping with clarity of political decision making. Where there is uncertainty it's always possible to construct political case for sticking to "values" and ignoring economic harms ENDS