2/ do you think that if the UK had gone down the efta/EEA route that there would have been such a backlash against brexit? We don't. If you had promoted a EFTA based brexit we would probably be out of the EU by now.
3/ ...businesses would be breathing a sigh of relief, the economy would be booming, the #ofoc and #fbpe crowd would struggle to fill a taxi and would be seen as a fringe of dinosaur europhiles. The UK would be preparing to sign FTAs with countries around the globe.
Two years on from #Brexit referendum vote, UK growth has slumped. Lowest of any G7 country. Lower than Eurozone. Likely to fall further (c. Airbus). But hey, no worries, it's all #ProjectFear say the #Brexiteers (graphic @WSJ)
Still, young Brits can always pick fruit - rather than look forward to careers in high-tech industries like Airbus. Well done #Brexiteers (but hey, no worries it's all #ProjectFear isn't it?)
This isn't just a remainer thing BTW. If I was a leaver and I read that tweet I'd be PRETTY worried and pissed off TBH
These are our so-called "betters" who are in charge. They were told. They were told THREE YEARS ago that this could happen. The sheer arrogance as they dismissed this with a flick of the hand as one might a fly: "#ProjectFear", they sneered
So @theresa_may says she is going to deliver the “brexit people voted for”.
I have a few questions about how she is going to do that and in asking them I will be assisted by just a small sample of people that voted leave who are pretty clear she won’t. #remainernow
A THREAD (1)
1. People are right to observe that the EU does flex its own rules but very often when it does it is invoking emergency measures or articles inside a particular legal framework. That, though, cannot extend to #Brexit.
2. When the UK leaves it will become a third country. Standard third country treatment will apply. That new relationship could evolve to include further customs cooperation but it would have to be part of a formal agreement.
3. What the EU is not going to do is enter any agreement that compromises its own legal order. Any agreement allowing the free(ish) movement of goods would mean that any UK regulatory divergence would have to be supervised and mutually agreed.
1) What Dominic did
There may be solid behind the scenes reasons for Grieve voting against his own amendment, but what he did today is very symbolic
Other votes were important but this was the big one, the meaningful vote, and Grieve has made a grave error for a number of reasons
2) Firstly the entire Labour "soft #Brexit" strategy was built around the meaningful vote. It may have been real, it may have been fluff, but it was one potential line of defence that Grieve has now weakened.
Labour were clear and the 6 tests were being mentioned again
3) Secondly the meaningful vote amendment was something everyone could get behind & was hard to criticize.
EEA amendments had pros & cons and didn't satisfy all anti brexiters but this was easy to defend and support across the spectrum
THREAD: Today's events in Westminster - which relate to the process and not the substance of Brexit - do not change the fundamental mess and chaos of Brexit. The UK is heading for a bad Brexit deal but its not a done deal - a lot will happen between now and the Autumn. /1
Its disappointing the so called "Grieve 2" amendment did not pass this afternoon (I,of course, voted for it) but significant that Ministers were forced to climb down and issue a statement acknowledging Parliament's vital role at the end of the process. /2
There are still 5 #Brexit related Bills still to make their way through Parliament which are legally binding and amendable: Customs Bill; Trade Bill; Fisheries Bill; Agriculture Bill; and, Immigration Bill. There will also be a huge number of statutory instruments to pass too. /3
Every single person who voted for Jill Stein, wrote in some bullshit (like the 2K ppl who voted for Hennessy) or just said fck it because it “didn’t matter”... Fck ya’ll. Seriously.
That tweet was not hyperbole or from the perspective of an HRC supporter or any of that sh*t. I told people during the election they were playing around bc they really didn’t understand how bad this could be, & got alot of “but checks and balances” bulllsh*t.
I’m blaming erybody.
The night I stayed up and watched #Brexit pass, then saw the immediate flood of regret from protest voters and ppl who were cavalier because they didn’t think it would happen, I knew we were in trouble. The parallels were uncanny. Boris Johnson even LOOKS like a British Trump.
The people’s “informed consent” to #Brexit wasn’t given in 2016 because there was no deal to vote on. So we simply couldn’t judge at that point what Brexit terms would be in our best interests and those of our country....
That’s why today’s vote in @HouseofCommons matters. Parliament can’t do its job - your MP can’t make sure the final #Brexit deal is in your interests - if it doesn’t have a say. But the principle of Parliamentary sovereignty is even more important than that...
Our country works & avoids big abuses of power because the pillars of our constitution - Parliament, Govt & Law - keep each other in check. And Parliament is sovereign because it represents people. Betraying that is a betrayal of our people & all previous generations fought for
Unless their position evolves, the red lines of the UK today only allow for one type of relationship; that of a third country. The @Europarl_EN has outlined its proposal for a close association agreement, now it's up to the UK to ask for one. #Brexit
Brexit is a difficult issue that needs to be handled delicately. Ultimately, it concerns people & their families. We have a duty to get it right. But let's also be clear. Change will happen. Our role is to reduce the turmoil where possible.
I am far from happy with the treatment of UK citizens in the EU27. Most Member States have not yet started the process or procedures. The @Europarl_EN will remain very vigilant on this. As we will also on the so called onward movement question. @EURightsAgency
From Barnier's crime speech- it sums up the govt's #Brexit problem. UK says let’s have bespoke arrangements which will benefit both of us (and satisfy our red lines). EU says you don’t understand: we are a legal and institutional order and we can’t. Then repeat ad nauseam.
The UK constitiution is practically made of fudge: based on gradual evolution and compromise. For many British politicians this is their reflex: where there is a will, there's a way. This usually virtuous position is not helping the govt much in understanding their opponents.
The intellectual case for post-Brexit rested on this idea: we are powerful enough that we can cut a bespoke deal which would escape the strictures of their legal order. We'll know whether that was right at the end of all this but on balance of negotiations so far it looks flawed.
How embarrassing for #Merkel that EU divisions over #migration policies - where some European governments or government ministers prefer to go it alone rather than to find a common EU position - is being played out - in neon-lit glaring headlines - in her own administration 1
#Merkel has always pushed for EU-wide migration solutions (though she took a rather large unilateral decision herself back in 2015 when she opened the doors to over a million asylum-seekers, in defiance of EU regulations) 2
Those regulations stipulate that irregular migrants must be processed in the first EU country they arrive in- but #Merkel argued that no-one was looking after or documenting them (remember the chaos in Greece and Hungary?) 3
Some info on @Arron_banks' company Severn Holdings Ltd. in Malta. Severn was owned by Arron Banks, Alan Kentish, and David James Mason. It was recently liquidated. Thread 1/8. @peterjukes
Mason also owned Harbour Financial and Confiance Trust in Malta. Kentish is CEO of STM Group. STM (Kentish) then bought Harbour Financial from Mason. Kentish also bailed out Banks' company Southern Rock in 2015. 2/8
1. So who do I mean when I refer to the "Brexit Blob"? There's the usual suspects. Redwood, Rees-Mogg, Paterson and the other nonentity backbenchers, and then there;s the Tufton Street sock puppet think tanks and then the ayatollahs of #Brexit.
2. These will be people like Lawson, Ruth Lea, Hartley Brewer, Brendan O'Neill, John Longwoth, Kate Hoey, Gisela Stuart Low Fact Chloe, John Mills and so on and so forth. The ones who aren't lying are stone stupid.
3. These are the people who colluded to ensure that novbody outside the Westminster bubble got a voice in the campaign. That is why The Leave Alliance has struggled to win any exposure. Partly thanks to Hannan's sabotage early on - aided by the Bruges Group.
1. It's no secret that I hold the #Brexit blob in utter contempt. They are charlatans and liars. The ones who aren't thick as shit, that is. Rees-Mogg is a lying hypocrite, and hard Brexit stands on a foundation of intellectual sand.
2. These are the people who never needed to study the impacts or the mechanics of Brexit because they are financially and politically insulated from its effects. Consequently their knowledge of the EU is minimal.
3. I have been a reader of EU affairs for a decade or more now and there is still much to learn and even I didn't realise the extend of EU integration. Where technical governance is concerned, practically every industry is governed by the EU to one extent or other.
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
Interesting trip to France today: 1. Took taxi to airport. Lovely taxi driver who voted for #Brexit. I explained about the Govt. dithering about leaving Euratom and the risk of losing access to Technetium-99m, essential for UK medical imaging: independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
2. Several years ago I co-wrote a report about the risks to the UK of not having access to technetium for scans. Today, the UK does around half a million procedures a year, and we don't make any in the UK. Without Euratom all procedures stop happening. arxiv.org/abs/1501.03071
3. Like most people, my taxi driver hadn't even heard of Euratom until the Govt. said we were leaving it because of #Brexit, and she didn't realise one consequence is losing access to this vital medical isotope. You can't stockpile it, because it has a shelf life of about a week.
1. By now, business should have a good idea of what lies ahead if we leave the single market. They should but they don't. Their own research is poor, industry associations are useless and there is complacency throughout. They trust that the government will sort something out.
2. This is partly because the media is not doing its job. It is consumed by the trivia of Westminster - especially meaningless amendments that make no difference either way. We're also not getting any reliable information from our government.
3. The EUs Notices to Stakeholders are the only reliable official information which the media doesn't bother to report on and where it does it simply does not understand the significance of them. They are not speculation. They are the official legal position of the EU.
1. Seen quite a bit of anti #FBPE nonsense...mainly from the further left..we've been called a cult by Corbynistas...I'd remind them, cultists worship deities PEOPLE or objects; opposing a #Brexit which is leaving us all Poorer, Weaker with Less Control & Fewer Rights is neither.
2. Using #FBPE doesn't make us anti Corbyn or Labour it makes us anti #Brexit & sadly that means we are in opposition to those who are forcing a flawed #BrexitShambles upon the Ppl & denying the Ppl a #FinalSay a #PeoplesVote to Confirm the Will of the Ppl to leave or to #Remain.
3. Fighting to give the Ppl a #FinalSay nor indeed giving the Ppl a #PeoplesVote doesn't thwart #Brexit nor disrespect anyone..it merely allows everyone to Confirm if they still want it or now to #StopBrexit & #Remain...it's called DEMOCRACY as it allows ppl to change their minds
The short of the EEA argument is the fact that we have been an EU member for 40 years and nothing less than a fully comprehensive framework for future economic collaboration with our neighbours is a sufficient replacement. It is that simple.
Had we never been part of the single market an FTA would have been sufficient and more suitable for our needs - but we have the better part of thirty years worth of economic activity working inside EU regulatory frameworks. We need to ensure its survival.
Without having all the mechanisms of recognition and proof of conformity then frictionless trade does not happen and we lose all our preferential participation in the European market. That means a hit for everything from cosmetics through to airline spares.
Addressing @FinancialTimes Brexit and Beyond Conference outlining Irish government perspective on #Brexit "Cross border trade represents the first export market for 73% for Northern Ireland's SME's. More than 7,000 business trade across the border supporting 160,000 jobs."
"EU membership and the Good Friday Agreement have brought immeasurable benefits to the people of Ireland, North and South and help normalise relationships between the people across the island of Ireland. We want to ensure this is not impeded by #brexit."
"We welcomed the publication of the UK proposals last week on the Customs aspects of the withdrawal agreement. It is clear that further work is still required in particular on the regulatory alignment aspect in order to make progress needed on the backstop before EU Council."
@ftlive conference. Summary of @FT panel:
-increased risk Oct deadline pushed back
-sense in EU that UK might ask for extension
-EU may have misjudged strength of HMG red line on Ireland
-Biz frustrated saying same things for 2 years
-Parl won't vote for no deal #ftbrexit
Chair of @johnlewisretail:
-uncomfortable about quiet voice of business on #Brexit so far
-urgent need for practicality over ideology
-no deal should not be countenanced
-need to focus on productivity to address disenchantment that led here
-JL focus on tariffs, forex, skills
@Siemens UK CEO:
-Business investment in UK has held up very well since referendum
-But 2 years on now is the time for business to turn up heat on HMG and demand practical solutions
-Or investment will suffer