Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #brexit

Most recents (24)

Reaction in Brussels to this article 👇 is that either A) Downing Street is sending a message via journalist that it is now willing to make compromises - thereby immediately making a deal more likely (as Eu already said it‘s willing to compromise) OR ../1 thetimes.co.uk/article/a-brex…
B) more downbeat EU assessment is this is a PR exercise by Downing Street. Suggesting compromise (but not coming up with specific political compromise on state aid for example) .. only to use apparent UK flexibility to accuse EU of intransigence if talks ultimately break down /2
Not much trust here in Johnson government. BUT EU leaders still believe PM wants a deal. High level EU insider told me „government „mess“ over exams and covid19 test and trace plus huge strains on UK economy make it more likely the uk government will complete a trade deal“ /3
Read 12 tweets
Some economic comparisons:

A failing #Brexit has so far cost us the equivalent of the total of every payment we've made, ever, to the EU, since we joined.
Some economic comparisons: (2)

A failed Track&Trace / Test&Trace has cost us the equivalent of four aircraft carriers.
Some economic comparisons: (3)

An already-failing #Moonshot #Vaccine scheme will cost more than our entire annual Education Budget and is based on technology that has yet to be invented.
Read 7 tweets
The govt has announced in a press release that Cambridge Analytica CEO Alexander Nix has been disqualified as company director for 7 yrs for offering "unethical" political services.

Boris Johnson says he "can't remember" why he met with Nix when he was Foreign Secretary in 2016. Image
Tactfully, the govt press release doesn't mention Cambridge Analytica's role in #Brexit, or that a sister company of CA was paid by Dominic Cummings & Vote Leave to place 1.5 billion highly dishonest ads on UK voters' Facebook pages in the days leading up to the 2016 referendum.
The links between Cambridge Analytica & the Tories run deep. At one time the largest shareholder in CA's parent company SCL was Vincent Tchenguiz, a billionaire Iranian-Israeli and generous donor to the Conservative Party.
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Read 5 tweets
1. It has been a while since I did a #thread on #Brexit but as baby Janina is napping I thought I would offer my two cents. The IMB has naturally undermined the trust that the deal can be reached and has a potential of derailing the talks.
2. Whereas the EU is naturally frustrated with UK's move some folks I have talked to think that the deal is still possible... under condition that the IMB is revised respectively.
3. Some of the involved in the talks think that Johnson is believed to prefer a deal from a no-deal scenario but they acknowledge that there are mounting challenges ahead of the negotiators.
Read 15 tweets
What?! A border between Kent and the rest of the UK? Brexit just gets more and more INSANE. #kentborder #Brexit
🤯 oh god. Just why. Why are we doing this crazy mental stupid mental thing?
😭 it's just so mental.
Read 4 tweets
#Brexit : 29 lorry parks constructed, and a construction or planned. 39 further lorry parks under proposal or consideration. £1.75 BILLION annual cost of paperwork. Drivers required to have a permit to “Enter the county of Kent”, enforced by ANPR.
@jdpoc The “Kent Access Permit“ has been confirmed by Gove in his communications with the Hauliers Association, but few further details are as of yet available.
@jdpoc Apologies for my factual error here.

The annual cost of new Customs paperwork is not £1.75 billion ... it’s £15 billion.

Thanks to the many who pointed that out. :-) #MeaCulpa.
Read 4 tweets
A bushy-tailed @michaelgove now giving statement to Parliament on the #brexit border, "we need businesses to prepare" to make the most of the "opportunities" of leaving the EU single market.

bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/b…
@michaelgove Still "plenty of time to prepare" he adds.

And Border Force recruiting 1,000 extra staff, with 100s more on the way.

And a new SmartFreight web portal, and an Check Change GO info campaign...you can see it here. Very inspiring.

Now @RachelReevesMP replies - and paints a rather different picture to the ebullient Mr Gove. Says the @RHARichardB and others are "tearing their hair out" at lack of government information and assistance. Urges govt to get a trade deal./
Read 5 tweets
Our BRAND NEW report on what no deal would mean is out today

Our experts are giving a briefing on the report this morning...

(Thread)

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
. @jillongovt: "No deal now is not the same as last year because the financial settlement, citizens' rights and Northern Ireland were dealt with in the Withdrawal Agreement."

#NoDealBrexit
. @jillongovt: "There could be extensive disruption at the UK-EU border."

"Lots of #Brexit officials were redeployed to #Covid_19 and some things are running late."

#NoDealBrexit
Read 14 tweets
Time to revive the Lancaster House Agreement with France, and pursue more strategic bilaterals? Useful evidence session this morning in @LordsEUCom on defence and security post-#Brexit Parliamentlive.tv parliamentlive.tv/event/index/a0…
Featuring, in Part One, @lauracchappell and @anandMenon1 ...
... and in Part Two, @CER_IanBond and Prof Michael Clarke.
Read 3 tweets
Our Director @anandMenon1 will be speaking at the @LordsEUCom Security and Justice Sub-Committee shortly

Follow the session here: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/a0…
.@anandMenon1: "Both sides need to find a way to work with each other on foreign and security policy."

"They're not negotiating partly because @theresa_may tried and failed, and because UK domestic politics have hardened."

@LordsEUCom
. @anandMenon1: "Sovereignty is not such an issue on foreign and defence - it's as much about optics."

"Foreign policy is being underprioritised by both sides. This is not just the UK - the question is whether the EU is willing to accept the UK is not any other 3rd country."
Read 13 tweets
We're underway with our evidence session on UK customs policy.

The witnesses are:

@AnnaJerzewska
@AllieRenison
@Eliz_de_Jong
Tim Reardon (@Port_of_Dover)

📺Watch it live here👇

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/f1…
First up, @MelJStride asks if companies are ready for the end of the #Brexit transition period on 1 January.

@AnnaJerzewska said:

🗣️"On the whole, companies are not ready for 1 January."
.@Eliz_de_Jong from Logistics UK told us that we need double the number of customs agents than currently exist for #Brexit borders.
Read 6 tweets
Labour leader @Keir_Starmer is now live on @RidgeOnSunday. Tell @SophyRidgeSky:

-Supports fines for people breaking self-isolation rules.
-COVID testing 'is barely serviceable' and 'a major problem'.
-Reporting neighbours to police 'depends on the circumstances'.

#Ridge
.@Keir_Starmer to @SophyRidgeSky:

-Govt has 'lost control of testing' so unsure where the virus is.
-PM should apologise.
-PM should restart daily briefings.
-Children should be prioritised for tests.

#Ridge
.@Keir_Starmer to @SophyRidgeSky:

-'I cannot believe we did not scenario plan' for kids returning to school and getting ill.
-Big difference between him at Corbyn: need to listen to those who didn't vote Labour or never have.

#Ridge
Read 17 tweets
So what better way to end a fascinating week in matters #Brexit than with a new #BrexitDiagram?

Series 5, V2.0.0 - updated in light of the Number 10 conceding on the Neill Amendment, but House of Lords now examining the Internal Market Bill only in October
Headline numbers
(compared with V1.0.0, 15.09.2020)

No Deal - 46% (⬇️ 12%)
Minimal Deal - 40% (⬆️ 4%)
Party problems for Johnson - 14% (⬆️ 8%)
There is also a design change in this version - I am using the Curved Arrow function in @drawio rather than the Rounded Arrow function

The diagram is more elegant (perhaps the most elegant #BrexitDiagram ever?) but is it as easy to follow? Do let me know!
Read 4 tweets
Amal Clooney has resigned as special envoy on media freedom for the UK government: "It has now become untenable for me, as Special Envoy, to urge other states to respect and enforce international obligations while the UK declares that it does not intend to do so itself."

#Brexit
Clooney pointed out in her resignation letter that she received no assurances from Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab that any change of position is imminent, so she did not see other option but stepping down.
Her letter contains two warnings:
- Breaching international law would "fatally puncture people's faith in our justice system", and
- "It threatens to embolden autocratic regimes that violate international law with devastating consequences all over the world."
Read 5 tweets
So the fury continues about @borisjohnson threat to overwrite #Brexit withdrawal agreement...but the EU hasn't walked....and the shape of a Brexit deal is there to be done. The unanswered Q is whether the UK wants to do it - my latest via @ft 1/

ft.com/content/7eb79c…
@BorisJohnson @FT It might seem like all is lost, but it is notable that @MichelBarnier is still talking - if only to make sure that the EU doesn't get the blame - and waiting and watching to see if UK moves to make a deal...the shape of which seems pretty obvious. It goes like this/2
@BorisJohnson @FT @MichelBarnier The UK does a deal to unlock a 'zero tariff, zero quota' Free Trade Agreement - which of course requires both sides to reach a deal on State Aid and level playing field...but the shape of that deal IS possible. See this @instituteforgov report for ideas/3

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
Read 12 tweets
If this is so👇then HMG does not understand EU dynamic at all. Reason there was a Varadkar moment was bc sticking point in Withdrawal Agreement was the Irish protocol. The other 26 EU leaders were happy to accept a compromise if Ireland happy AND compromise protected single mkt/1
This time the sticking points are governance/level playing field/fish.. There is no single EU leader of a member state who can compromise on behalf of the rest. V different to the #Brexit divorce deal and Irish protocol /2
That said, the EU also awaits a Varadkar moment in these negotiations in that Johnson compromised hugely in his meeting with the then Taoiseach. He agreed to a border down the Irish Sea- something he’d previously claimed he’d never countenance. PM needs to compromise now too /3
Read 4 tweets
Stuck in a queue at the border? Take a quick break at the #Brexit drive-thru.

What can I get you?
Brexit

Okay. And how would you like that?
Hard
Can you be a bit more precise?

Certainly. I want complete regulatory autonomy, no EU laws anywhere in this most united of United Kingdoms, and the same Brexit for all four nations. Got it?
Sure. Anything else?

Well, I’m told I shouldn’t threaten peace and security. Best add a side order of “respecting the Good Friday Agreement”.
Read 14 tweets
I don't know about you but I keep hearing people talking about the $DXY falling apart, the end of times

a thread...
The first thing I notice is that we are pretty much at normal historical levels today, perhaps even up to the top end of those normal levels. The two big spikes way out of the normal range higher happened around 1985 and around 2001.
The big move up started in 1980 and broke out dramatically higher in 1982. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to highs of 19% causing a big recession in 1981-1982.
Read 14 tweets
Intense clarity of thought, as ever , by @AntonSpisak unpicking the "blockade" issue in @prospect_uk
- one level petulant nonsense (with some fault on both sides) on another a serious indicator of lack of trust 1/thread

prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/brexi…
@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk On the first "petulance" point, there is some blame on both sides.

The EU has been using 'third country' listing as leverage (some unnecessary gloating behind scenes here) but the talk of a "blockade" is wildly inflammatory spin from the UK side which has safeguards /2
@AntonSpisak @prospect_uk As Spisak points out - and I've been trying to point out - a "blockade" would violate Art 6 of the Protocol that requires "best endeavours" on NI-GB trade, but Art 16 offers even greater safeguards. /3
Read 10 tweets
.@CBeaune sur le discours d'Ursula von der Leyen : "C'est un très bon discours, avec une vision, le discours d'une Europe qui se réveille" #le79inter
.@CBeaune : "Une absence d'accord [sur le #Brexit] serait une mauvaise nouvelle ; mais un mauvais accord serait bien pire" #le79inter
.@CBeaune sur le Covid : "Que face au même sujet, au même problème, on n'ait pas les mêmes mesures, c'est une inefficacité européenne" #le79inter
Read 9 tweets
The sins of 1920 will continue to ripple through Irish history until the country is whole again. Every self-serving move Britain makes regarding Northern Ireland comes at a high cost to the Irish people. washingtonpost.com/world/europe/b…
As an entity, Northern Ireland is a political myth, created with the same Big Power cynicism and self-interest that created Iraq, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and, later, North and South Vietnam. Outsiders created a ”reality” that didn't exist, for political purposes.
To ”protect” Northern Irish Protestants from the imaginary threat of an ”Irish Catholic” Republic of Ireland, Britain created the equally imaginary entity of Northern Ireland-- and to prevent an imaginary disenfranchisement of Protestants, de facto disenfranchised Catholics.
Read 7 tweets
It seems we are looking at a total fiasco at customs in January. Though this is very much related to decisions made about #Brexit early on, at least a third of the problem is an unresponsive, unprepared, naive government winging it the same way it's handling Covid.
From the beginning this government assumed that sorting customs formalities was just a case of horse trading with the EU. They failed to appreciate that the removal of border controls was the product of regulatory harmonisation and customs integration.
They listened to their party loyalist "experts" who fed them a steady stream of snake oil (for a hefty fee) which may have helped their propaganda argument, but in no way took into account the EU's own system of rules or the ways in which the EU is constrained by them.
Read 17 tweets
All this talk of "concessions" and a parliamentary "lock" on the parts of #UKInternalMarketBill overriding the #Brexit withdrawal agreement smack of the Tory Party negotiating with itself.

It's a safety catch for the revolver...handed to a PM with an 80 seat majority! /1
It reminds me of the Chequers deal days when the Tory party congratulated itself for triangulating a position of customs that had no bearing to what EU could accept....this plan as reported by @GeorgeWParker and others feels similar /2

ft.com/content/d9d3ab…
@GeorgeWParker From an EU perspective you have to realise that sections 42 to 45 of the UKIM wholly disapply obligations of the Northern Irish Protocol. It is nuclear. (We are promised same for 'at risk' goods question in autumn Finance Bill). /3
Read 6 tweets

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