Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #brexit

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Ahem. Sorry to intrude on today's Westminster drama but....

A faction of the Tory Party is trying to unseat @theresa_may over the the Irish backstop #Brexit

But here is why it isn't going away. Whatever happens. Deal or no deal. 1/Thread
@theresa_may First, the simple politics.

The ERG hates the backstop. They want a unilateral exit clause - but the more they talk about that, the more the EU and Irish are going to cling to the need for a backstop that guarantees no return to a hard border. /2
@theresa_may But let us say, for sake of argument, that the ERG gets its way.

The brave new PM (Raab, Boris, DD or whoever) rides into Brussels with an ultimatum: it's the deal-minus-backstop, or No deal.

And against all the odds and predictions of smart alecs like me, the EU caves... /3
Read 20 tweets
Let me explain for American readers.

1. Conservative MPs don’t want a General Election.
2. Labour and the EU are just starting to realize it’s May’s deal or automatic hard #Brexit
3. May isn’t a Russian asset but opp ldr @jeremycorbyn is and Putin won’t let him oppose #Brexit.
So even if UK PM @theresa_may won’t get her deal through, the UK will still #Brexit as the Leader of the Opposition, a Russian asset, Jeremy Corbyn, will not allow his own party to oppose #Brexit with the fresh vote that would be needed to stop it.
And there is in fact no likelihood that any fresh vote even if Corbyn were to call it would overturn Article 50.

The EU can either cave on the Irish Border with a “technical solution” or they can go whistle for two years of UK money that they need desperately.
#Brexit anyway.
Read 5 tweets
A short thread on how we got to where we are:

#Tory Party 2015:

Those extremist Eurosceptics in my party need to be stopped.
I'll call a Referendum on Europe once and for all
I'm a winner, I've just won a GE no one expected & Scottish Indy campaign
I know how to win
#Tory Party 2016:

Leaver #Tories: Let's
Take Back Control
They need us more than they need us
Those German Car makers will get Merkel to give us a good deal
It'll be the easiest trade deal in the world

People: Ok - let's #Brexit

Cameron: I know I started this but I'm off
I'm here.
Strong and Stable.

There will be no General Election till 2020
We will be out of the Customs Union
We will not be under ECJ rule
I'll remove your rights to live & work in EU but I'll call it a good thing because Immigrants are bad
Read 13 tweets

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1) 6 pointless, time wasting exercises the Tory & Labour parties want to put the country through before we can start work on #Brexit

There are only 2 options left, May’s deal or Remain. There’s no majority for no deal and no time or appetite for a new negotiation
2) There is only 3 months left and the country is in a state of worry. Despite this, and despite the ticking clock the 2 major parties are insisting on self indulgent frippery and posturing before we can get to the real business of fixing #Brexit
3) Lets take the Tory party. Firstly, they’re about to engage in another Leadership contest. May will probably win this but even if she doesn’t it will consume weeks of time for no purpose because it won’t itself change anything in Brexit. The same issues will exist afterwards
Read 14 tweets
1. So from the top. A no deal Brexit is devastating to trade. If no deal is what you want then make an honest case for it but please do not pretend trade carries on as normal. It doesn't.

#Brexit thread
2. No deal means the overnight termination of of all formal external relations including FTAs with non EU states. We are instantly classed legally as a third country with no single market participation at all. We move to the outside of third country controls.
3. That means our product certifications are null and void. Goods cannot circulate in the market unless they have gone through the process of authorisation and food of animal origin cannot go through Calais. The full array of controls kick in.
Read 11 tweets
Clinton's Emails....
and the #TrumpRussiaMatrix ...
Read 15 tweets
1) What's the point of a Vote of no confidence that can't win?

Because it's the only way to get Corbyn to support a #PeoplesVote in time before we crash out in 16 weeks or are forced to take May's #Brexit deal

A VoNC is a red herring, it will never succeed so it needs clearing
2) the Labour leadership have defined the sequence:
- vote down deal
- call for a GE (via a VoNC)
- call for #PeoplesVote
But the deal vote is postponed for 5 weeks, leaving about 10 before we leave.

The only way to "call for a GE" is via a vote of no confidence

3) and this may be difficult for some Labour supporters to accept:
- no one really believes that a Vote of No Confidence will *ever* succeed
- many do not believe Corbyn wants a #PeoplesVote

So the reason people are asking for a VoNC is simple. It's a red herring.
Read 6 tweets
As today is not the big #Brexit day we all thought, some thoughts on #Brexit, Lexit, gilets jaunes & austerity, trying to make sense of it all (thread)
On the face of it, Lexit, the idea of a leftist, pro-social policy Brexit is easily dismissed. Yes, inequality is a problem in the UK, so are regional disparities, austerity is tearing apart the social fabric, there’s real poverty (as demonstrated by the @Alston_UNSR), but...
@Alston_UNSR ... none of this has to do with the EU. The EU is full of countries with policies that are more to the left. The UK is not in the Euro. And worse: why exactly would the UK, always at the conservative side on the EU suddenly turn to the left outside of it?...
Read 14 tweets
NEO LONDON, England, December 2125 -- The last surviving participant of the 2016 EU Referendum died today aged 127. Emily Jackson had just turned 18 when the referendum was held, and voted to Remain. [THREAD]
To mark this historic occasion, the UK government has announced it is abandoning #Brexit and revoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. The UK will remain part of the EU, just as Emily and the vast majority of her generation wished.
Article 50 was first triggered in March 2017. Following the surprise result of the referendum, the government panicked and started the clock on a two-year window for the UK to negotiate a withdrawal agreement with the remaining EU member states.
Read 12 tweets
It takes some serious putang to plan and execute a strategy that seriously changes the face of UK politics, rips apart the fabric of our society and turns it into a filthy tax haven, reducing workers rights to mere serfdom.
I'm not expressing admiration, I'm just overwhelmed at the sheer level of evil, selfishness and greediness that these people have.
And this makes them incredibly dangerous. They've gone all in. Failure is not an option. They've got everything to lose and all to win. They won't be easily defeated.
Read 10 tweets
So a pretty strange thing happened to me tonight, and in this dark #Brexit time, it might benefit Twitter to hear it. /thread
So I drove my wife to her night shift tonight (about thirty minutes each way). On the way back, I stop at ASDA to get milk for my daughter. As I’m stepping out into the car park I swear I can hear a “meow”. /2
Seriously? I’m about to head off when I hear it again.
Now I have a cat so I’m concerned there’s one around somewhere. /3
Read 18 tweets
1. Nobody ought to be surprised by the ineptitude unfolding in British politics in respect of #Brexit. Brexit really just brings it centre stage - but it has been there all along for those who care to look...
2. Take the Iraq invasion. Our generals assured us that it was just a matter of keeping the peace and ti was our recent experience in Northern Ireland than made us the operational experts. That assessment proved to be... less than accurate. Some might say breathtakingly arrogant
3. We assumed that we could keep the peace by running a hearts and minds operation going out in soft skinned landrovers. It didn't take long for that idea to disintegrate and soon we were taking avoidable casualties and losing control of the situation.
Read 21 tweets
Theresa May can't go forward or backward. UK parliament ready to take her down, but she's been the dead wolf since day 1 and she's still here. People without parliamentary democracies don't understand the drama & entertainment they are missing. #BrexitVote
"The vote could be delayed until the day before UK falls out of the EU with no deal." Say what you will about Theresa May, she has created a world where women no longer have to try harder than men, where even the most mediocre woman can hold high office. 🤣
Here's Jacob Rees-Mogg moaning about people "dusting down precedents from the 1860s." 🤣🤣 #TheresaMay #BrexitShambles #BrexitVote
Read 20 tweets
It just gets worse I am nearly on tears Theresa May intends to run the clock down and force parliament to back her for fear of no deal #BrexitVote and if she gets it what happens?
The entire country will be angry and unhappy it leaves many issues unresolved it means years of nothing but bickering over brexit when the country is sick of it
It means remainers are furious for losing the benefits of EU membership leavers will be furious because in effect her deal will be the largest transfer of sovereignty from a nation state to Brussels in the history of the European Union #Brexit
Read 7 tweets
1) The BBC, @bbcnickrobinson and silencing the 48%
#Brexit is more in doubt today than it was yesterday, more in doubt last week than it was last year. Opposition to it has grown slowly but steadly

But you wouldn't think so watching the BBC…
2) The BBC's Nick Robinson put out this blog in April 2017, explaining the duty of the national broadcaster. The referendum was over, Remain was no longer an option and there was therefore no requirement for the BBC to report on anything other than variations of #Brexit
3) This judgement, that Remain was dead, was certainly suspect 18 months ago. Today, with #PeoplesVote on everyone's lips and the Brexit plan in tatters it appears to be a remarkable failure from the BBC news team, who have failed in their duty to inform in a balanced fashion
Read 10 tweets
The last enduring myth of #Brexit is that "Remainer" May betrayed leavers
Last night's #C4Brexit debate showed that up for what it is:
3 offers from 3 *clear* brexiters - all incompatible, each hated by the others

There is no deal anyone can agree on, that's what killed Brexit
In the end Brexit could only work if there was consensus, at least amongst Leave supporters if no one else. But instead #Brexit leaders are caught between May's deal, no deal, Canada+++ & Norway+

This is the issue, not May, Brexit leaders cannot speak with a single voice
Even if you accept that May's deal was a remainer compromise, what then? You'd at least expect to see the Brexiters coalescing around a single alternative, but they cannot
No deal, hard brexit, go back and renegotiate, they're moving between these options in desperation
Read 5 tweets
Some quick #brexit thoughts after chats this AM in EU institutions and capitals.

The @theresa_may ring around hasn’t changed anything.

The EU can offer clarifications, not deep/legally binding changes. 1/thread
Clearly isn’t enough.

At least not now. All of these changes are for those who “are in the mood to be persuaded”.

Instructive that May still can’t off clarity on these calls on what she wants. /2
Worth recalling that ERG wants an exit clause for Irish backstop. But does May?

That would lead to return to hard border in Ireland, or border in Irish Sea. And crash out on WTO terms. All of which May doesn’t want; that’s why she did this deal. /3
Read 6 tweets
1) EU watching to see if their #Brexit deal negotiated with the PM is defeated in parliament tomorrow and if so, by how much
2) EU leaders will invite Theresa May to tell them what’s going on in the U.K, what her next steps will be and what she hopes for from them at their scheduled EU summit on Weds and Thursday this week #Brexit
3) EU v much wants to avoid a no-deal scenario but EU leaders unlikely to provide even written clarifications on controversial #Brexit issues like the backstop to help the PM unless they get a pretty cast iron guarantee that will get the deal through Parliament in a second vote
Read 5 tweets
Again, at such a key moment in UK and at such high political levels, evidence of deep misunderstanding of EU: The PM is under pressure in some quarters to delay #Brexit vote to allow her first to “improve” deal in Brussels BUT EU is determined not to budge at this stage
2) All EU leaders watching tomorrow’s vote. Of course they want to avoid a no deal #Brexit BUT they feel the deal - so painfully negotiated between EU and UK - is too fresh to re-open. Clarifications, yes but fundamental renegotiations, no.
3) The EU’s international reputation as a tough deal-maker is at stake here too. If Brussels now suddenly “gives in” to U.K. on EU red lines (eg backstop) then that would weaken the EU’s reputation in future trade negotiations with other non EU countries
Read 6 tweets
1) ECJ has just ruled - as expected - that U.K. can unilaterally revoke article 50 - the process by which U.K. leaves the EU -as long as parliament agrees or a new U.K. gov is in favour (following a general election)
2) ECJ has ruled that if U.K. changes its mind about #Brexit before the official leaving date of 29 March 2019 then the U.K. would stay in EU under current conditions - ie with rebate, opt-outs from Euro currency etc
3) Remember this is an ECJ ruling. It goes against European Commission which said revoking article 50 shouldn’t be a unilateral action by a leaving member state (Brussels worries about setting precedent in case other countries might pretend to “leave” in order to get better deal)
Read 3 tweets
#C4brexit thread
1) Labour #Brexit "policy" finally exposed, the shiniest unicorns of all

Tonight we finally saw Barry Gardiner lay out Labour brexit policy, and its nothing short of an utter and complete fantasy which makes Vote Leave's pack of lies look reasonable
2) May government is offering the deal which at least represents something concrete if compromised

Mogg - no deal, terrifying but at least a "pure" brexit

Lucas - #PeoplesVote, a chance to step back and Remain

All 3 have a vision which can be discussed and assessed

3) Labour are offering a brand new Customs Union which allows us to set our own trade deals and Veto the EUs

Full benefits of the SM but without FoM and a free pass on subsidising any industry

Why will we get this unicorn deal?

"we're the 5th largest economy"
Yes, he said that
Read 10 tweets
OF FOR FUCKS SAKE WHY is @BarryGardiner STILL wittering about the fantasy the @UKLabour can negotiate a Unicorn deal with ALL the benefits and NONE of the compromises? Labour just lies and disrespects voters. #c4brexit
@CarolineLucas totally nails #BarryGardiner who is lying about his unicorn, and found out, now he is losing his shit
@BarryGardiner is telling stupid lies and people know it. Either in, with benefits, our OUT with no compromises. You can’t have both
Read 14 tweets
I'm increasingly of the view that remainers are delusional. It's not the EU they value. They evidence shows they don't even care. What they want is to hang on to their systemic entitlements and privileges, refusing to admit the status quo is living on borrowed time.

You have to ask where was this rapant europhillia before the referendum? Why were turnouts 35% in euro elections? Why did they mainly return Ukip MEPs? Simple. The remain movement is zip to do with EU membership. Its just a tantrum from a middle class having their toys taken away
What really bothers them is that they are losing control over the narrative. They hate that Brexit has empowered ordinary people and they're worried that their last instruments of control are slipping from their grasp - hence the legal jihad against Brexit and the censorship.
Read 10 tweets
I am sick of hearing warnings about how if #Brexit is cancelled it will result in violence and therefore we should go ahead with brexit through fear of racists
A lot of this comes from the right who know their project #Brexit is falling apart but whoever now expects anything better or indeed anything good at all from them. It's when you hear it from left wingers it really angers me
People who are receptive to the idea that immigrants have taken the jobs or depressed wages or pushed up housing costs or stretched public services often have genuine grievances in employment housing or access to health and education which are ignored
Read 23 tweets

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