Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #brexit

Most recents (24)

The #brexit rollercoaster takes a downward swing... I'd say this.

1) The @BorisJohnson move on customs implicitly is an admission that 'no deal' isn't serious

2) That even it was, the deal space is now clearly identified. No deal is a just a way back to where we are now /1
@BorisJohnson 3) The DUP acceptance of special status for NI on Single Market regs always opened the idea, for a customs fix on same lines.

4) The NI-only deal is what EU wants. It offered CU for UK as a fix, but big MS know that UK with 'better than Turkey' CU access is headache/2
@BorisJohnson 5) This deal is an NI-only variant which allows the UK free to do an FTA with EU - where the EU will set terms, as by far the bigger partner.

6) NI does well in that hard brexit scenario, tho not as well as it would have done in @theresa_may deal /3
Read 5 tweets
So @DavidDavisMP tells @bbcnickrobinson that we will "maintain" access to the EU market under Canada-minus trade deal (true, but reduced access) and that will unlock the "spectacular" benefits of free trade deals...so the sale the begins. Can @PhilipHammondUK vote for that? /1
@DavidDavisMP @bbcnickrobinson @PhilipHammondUK David Davis dismisses treasury forcecasts as mumbo-jumbo, but as @bbcnickrobinson tries to point out, on any reading erecting barriers to trade with advanced markets on our doorstep has to hurt - whatever your views on the models.

But if you are interested in models../2
@DavidDavisMP @bbcnickrobinson @PhilipHammondUK Then @UKandEU team including @jdportes
have done some to assess impact of @BorisJohnson Canada-minus deal, depending on migration scenarios. Striking how there isn't that much difference with No Deal. /3

ukandeu.ac.uk/johnsons-brexi…
Read 10 tweets
Effectively -despite all the noise - the state of #Brexit negotiations has NOT really changed in last three days or so:
i) Much as there is huge political will in EU to get Brexit deal done.. /1
EU leaders do NOT want to be hurried into making a new deal to fit Boris Johnson’s timetable. Has to be something they can live with - that doesn’t cause potential probs for single market/ NIreland peace process in years to come /2
ii) This is very difficult to ‘fudge’! EU demanding not ‘good intentions’ as to how single market and peace process should be safeguarded on island of Ireland after Brexit but rather a ‘legally operative text’ /3
Read 14 tweets
So I hate to be a #Brexit downer. But signals I am getting this morning from very well placed EU sources is much, much more cautious. Odds of a deal this week - basically zero. Odds of a deal by 31 October? "1%". Why? For all the improved atmospherics, substance is BIG problem 1/
First point. EU capitals continue to see the risk of a NEGATIVE surprise. "We should not forget that all this is viewed in No10 through the next election & unity of the party. Everything else is secondary." Officials believe that if Boris or Cummings believe it's better to 2/
change tack again, they could do that quickly. Events of the past week have shown "they don't mind breaking rules or destroying relationships if need be." So EU capitals are mindful of this. Second: while noises out of Bxl & TF50 are positive, substance remains a challenge. 3/
Read 11 tweets
So. #Brexit latest. Some signs of increased optimism from 24 hours ago - tho caution urged.

Tl;dr: 'hybrid' landing zone is close for Northern Ireland/Customs, but issues remain on the future declaration (which bears on NI arrangement)
1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
After very downbeat assesment by @MichelBarnier to EU ambassadors on Sunday, the noises off are suddenly audibly more positive.

Hard details are sparse, but understand that talks are narrowing down on an NI solution./2
@MichelBarnier There appears to be sight of a landing zone between the full Irish Sea Customs border NI originally proposed and the 'Chequers-style 'new customs partnership' for Northern Ireland'. /3
Read 19 tweets
In the media frenzy of “Will there/won’t there be a new #Brexit deal this week?” things are likely to become clearer on Wednesday .. the eve of the EU leaders summit. In the meantime there’s lots of smoke, mirrors and second-guessing going on /1
Some in EU I’ve spoken to comment on how ‘upbeat’ key player Ireland seems to be. Which should, logically be an indication that a new deal is on track, right? Except others in the EU question Dublin’s motives: upbeat for real or to avoid being labelled the Nay-sayers, they ask /2
European Commission assures that the negotiations are being carried out in good faith on both sides. Clearly there’s political will to get this deal done once and for all. Little appetite for endless extensions on either side BUT /3
Read 10 tweets
This latest report on EU trade has some interesting statistics but the point to note is how the EU uses its trade instruments to influence and leverage the laws of third countries even without SM/CU membership.

ec.europa.eu/transparency/r…

#brexit
The section of Swiss trade really spells it out - that there are limits to the useful exercise of sovereignty when you live next door to a trade superpower. At best we can repatriate the decision making (fair enough) but the EU can and will wear us down where necessary.
That should be a lesson to no dealers believing a "clean break" means we'll be out of EU sphere of influence. Not gonna happen. It'll use its global dominance to protect its own interests - ie "level playing field" + whatever measures are necessary to protect customs sovereignty.
Read 12 tweets
On Wednesday & Thursday this week (thanks to many of you who generously donated to our crowdfund) a group of #RemainerNow are heading to Brussels to meet with MEPs & officials to show that the UK has changed its mind on Brexit. So what's happening?
#RemainerNowInBrussels

1/17
The plans include:

🔺 A 2 hour sit down with numerous MEPs and officials from several countries
🔺A media session arranged by several UK MEPs
🔺Lunch meetings with several others
🔺A tour of the various buildings
🔺Meeting up with Brussels based anti-brexit activists.

2/17
The UK MEPs who we are definitely meeting include @MartinChelt & @CarolineVoaden of the @libdems, @SebDance & @RCorbettMEP from Labour & @AlynSmith from @theSNP. So do keep an eye on feeds.

Sadly Green MEPs are not actually in Brussels but they are supportive of the trip.

3/17
Read 18 tweets
Was steckt eigentlich hinter "INEOS", dem Sponsor des Weltrekord-Läufers Eliud Kipchoge? Thread👇 Screenshot Ziemeinlauf mit Sponsor-Logo auf der Brust
INEOS ist der Chemie-Konzern des reichsten Briten, Jim Ratcliffe, prominenter #Brexit-Unterstützer und Steuervermeider in Milliardenhöhe durch seinen Umzug nach Monaco: theguardian.com/business/2019/…
Der Chemie- und Fracking-Konzern INEOS ist nicht nur einer der größten Umweltverschmutzer und CO2-Emittenten in vielen der 21 Länder, in denen es Fabriken oder Öl- und Gasförderung betreibt, ... foodandwatereurope.org/wp-content/upl…
Read 6 tweets
HMRC’s #Brexit impact assessment report has been updated again. Third edition. Couple of points on it
/1
gov.uk/government/pub…
Estimated annual administrative burden on UK businesses from import and export declarations still around £7.5bn. That’s the added cost of paying for a customs declaration each time goods move from the UK to EU based on 2017 trade flows.
/2
That obviously works both ways – EU firms would also need to pay to import/export to the UK so they would also face similar additional cost. As EU firms gradually find alternative suppliers within the EU these numbers could go down.
/3
Read 8 tweets
Perché i negoziati sulla #Brexit hanno avuto (clamorosamente) una svolta.

Perché il miracolo di un nuovo accordo prima del 31 ottobre è possibile. O forse NO.

Perché Johnson e Corbyn ora si giocano tutto.

Il mio THREAD definitivo per capire tutto ciò che sta accadendo.👇
🇬🇧🇪🇺
1. La svolta c'è stata in un misteriosissimo incontro giovedì scorso, tra il premier britannico Boris Johnson e quello irlandese Leo Varadkar, in un albergo vicino a Liverpool.

Fino a qualche ora prima tutti dicevano "accordo #Brexit quasi impossibile".

Poi, "è cambiato tutto".
2. Ma perché SAREBBE cambiato tutto?

L'ipotesi più fondata è che Johnson abbia fatto delle concessioni importanti sul confine irlandese e su un periodo di transizione soft dopo la #Brexit che hanno fornito una nuova base di negoziazione.

Ma che tipo di concessioni?

Vediamo.
Read 32 tweets
As we wait for white smoke to rise in Brussels, there's lots in the Sunday papers to mull over...starting with this nugget from @ShippersUnbound about how Northern Irish security fears pushed @BorisJohnson into pinning his ears back and going for a deal... /1
@ShippersUnbound @BorisJohnson Full story linked to below (£££) but spin aside, it's interesting that NI security & stabiity fears (derided as insifor months by many hard Brexiteers) are now cited as animating factors in the need for a deal. /2

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/b…
@ShippersUnbound @BorisJohnson I've always been sceptical as reg readers will know about viability of a 'no deal' - both as a useful negotiating threat but also as an actual outcome that Johnson could really contemplate. It's such a messy way to get back to the deal space we've alwasy needed to reach. /3
Read 17 tweets
good morning! The #Insiders host this week is Fran Kelly and the panel is poor old Gerard Henderson, tireless Liberal Party apologist Mike Stutchbury and the great Lenore Taylor.
the show begins with Fran smiling somewhat jarringly as responsibility for the Turkish attacks on Kurdish Peoples in Syria are placed where it largely belongs: with Donald Trump #Insiders
clip of that Marise Payne non sequitur about not putting Australian forces at risk to rescue Australians at al-Hawb refugee camp #Insiders
Read 28 tweets
I live in Norway - which is as a country in the EEA but not in the EU. I just wanted to share a few of the things I noticed living in a country outside of the EU and that maybe not everybody considers when thinking of the reality after #Brexit.

A Thread - 1/7
1) If I order anything (e.g. from Amazon, Ebay) which is delivered from a EU country and that is more expensive than 350kr (£40) I pay a customs duty plus VAT. (see example below) 2/7

@brexit_sham @BrexitBin
2) If my mum sends a parcel to me from Germany there is a huge amount of paperwork involved that proves what is in the parcel and the charges are €30.99 (up to 5kg). Compared to €17.99 if she would send it to a EU country like Belgium. 3/7

@Brexit
Read 8 tweets
Richard Dawkins on Brexit: No, the British people have NOT spoken - View... via @YouTube The Re-Moaner Delusion Dawkins Believes in The EU Fuhrer EUssr #SurrenderAct #GrubStreetJournal
Read 36 tweets
Was Tuesday's 'leaked' Merkel conversation which appeared to signal the end of the #brexit talks actually the moment that the penny droped with @BorisJohnson that EU would not accept customs border in Ireland?

My latest 1/

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@BorisJohnson It appears now that Johnson has accepted there can't be a customs border in Ireland...which is a huge step, if confirmed in weekend talks.

EU always clear a deal was there to be done if customs issue could be addressed; the door was always open. /2

@BorisJohnson The question now is whether Johnson can 'pivot' through the door and emerge the other side with a deal that is saleable in London and Belfast.

No texts produced today and several clear notes of caution on EU side about speculation/3
Read 9 tweets
Get this, #BrexitBritain. Any withdrawal agreement means compromise; you will pay, you will give ground. You are humiliated before the world, because #Brexit is an admission you can’t handle real life, that scuttling back to the safety of the dull 1950s is all you can handle.
If I sound bitter and angry it’s because I am. Because I’m one of those being screwed over. One of those whose life was defined by being European, by using the freedom that was my right. Five million of us whose lives have been turned upside down. #The5Million
#Brexiters are afraid that we don’t respect their ‘democratic vote’. Damned right we don’t. The referendum was never democratic. How could it be? The majority of those directly affected by the result DIDN’T EVEN GET A VOTE. Think about that. Democracy? No. The tyranny of the mob.
Read 9 tweets
Excellent someone talking sense. Why anyone believes that this Gordian knot can be untied is a mystery to me. Leaving aside the DUP, anything acceptable to the ERG will not acceptable to Labour and vice versa. However....
... there is a obvious @BorisJohnson / Dominic Cummings game plan in all this.
1. It’s too late for a deal
2. A hint of a deal is a reason for an extension
3. An extension preserves govt.
4. Remainers can be blamed when it falls over
5. And Boris gets to choose timing of GE /2
Of course none of this would be possible if @uklabour were not still paralysed by the indecisiveness of their increasingly isolated leader. /3
Read 15 tweets
Fascinating statement by the DUP. Holding fire, emphasising the importance of consent, but showing flexibility on “Northern Ireland specific solutions”, while reminding everyone that their votes matter (a lot). #Brexit
Seems govt has some wriggle room if it can get a consent mechanism agreed that is acceptable to unionists and republicans and find a way to keep NI in the UK’s customs territory, while also making it part of the EU’s. #Brexit
This is where a version of the Facilitated Customs Arrangement comes in, which, as some recall, was dismissed by the EU as an idea when the UK floated it at Chequers, and seriously challenged by business regarding deliverability. #Brexit
Read 4 tweets
Exclusive: The government is facing an unprecedented backlash from five key industries over Boris Johnson's plans for post #Brexit trading arrangements

🚀 Aerospace
🚗 Automotive
🧪 Chemicals
🍲 Food and drink
💊 Pharmaceuticals

bbc.in/35oRAsV
Collectively, the sectors employ 1.1 million people, contributing £98bn to the UK economy each year

The group has sent a letter to the government highlighting its concerns

bbc.in/35oRAsV
The BBC's @faisalislam has seen extracts of the letter, which was sent this week to Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay and the Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove

bbc.in/35oRAsV
Read 4 tweets
For the day that’s in it, here’s a thread on #consent.
Or, rather, Consent as it's being referred in the N.Ireland hiccupy-part of the #Brexit process.

@DPhinnemore & I have been working on all of this stuff. Here’s 1 article on it. More to come.

1/15
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/201…
@DPhinnemore We can all agree that consent = a good thing.
& when it comes to post-conflict NI, particularly so.
A history of mistrust & misuse of power means that making laws that work for people of all backgrounds = vital.
It's also important that democratic processes are seen to work.
2/15
@DPhinnemore There is no ‘principle’ of consent in #1998Agreement per se, but it's there in 2 main forms.

The 1st = majority consent.
No change to the constitutional status of NI without it being approved by the majority of people in NI. Hence the provision for a #borderpoll in future.

3/15
Read 16 tweets
1/10 An #immigration and #nhs thread. This govt the two have linked the two and this week sees this link leading toward further disaster:

The NHS is short of psychiatrists, esp child psychiatrists - the Home office during #MentalHealthAwarenessWeek

theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/o…
2/10 Meanwhile in the wake of #brexit, with a govt insisting on an arbitary salary threshold for immigration policy an NHS already short of 100000 staff looks set for a worsening staffing crisis

credit @HSJAnnabelle

hsj.co.uk/workforce/nhs-…
3/10 The govt insistence on using the #NHS as a means of immigration control continues, with the news of sharing of patient data with credit firms - a story with implications well beyond ill advised border control
#docsnotcops

credit @ShaunLintern

hsj.co.uk/policy-and-reg…
Read 10 tweets
So quick thoughts on @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar pow-wow and what we know/don't know. /1 Thread
@BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar First thing is that something definitely happening. This is not just blame-game posturing.

Asked a very trusted source tonight (who would know) what the outline was and they replied "sorry, can't" or words to that effect.

When top people clam up, that means one thing... /2
There is finally something substantive to protect....a proposal that might be workable and no-one wants derailing with leaks.

In #Brexit the sound of silence is always the sound of deals being done - or of a potential to be done. /3
Read 21 tweets

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