INCUBATION TIME OF HOPE HICKS—folks, we need to talk incubation time—time from exposure to symptoms (if any). But that varies widely. Average 5 days. But sometimes 2 days, or 14 days or even occasionally longer.
➡️ But infectious time starts *before* symptoms arise! #COVID19 🧵
2) Hope Hicks didn’t feel well starting mid day Wednesday, and infectious period can start 2 days earlier, then everyone from midday Monday onwards could have been exposed. And word is Hope Hicks wasn’t wearing a mask at the #Debates2020 or in cars/flights. Worrisome.
3) Thus, this makes the hunt for cases for way BEYOND Trump. Who else was in motorcade car with her? Kushner and Miller^2? Who else was on AF1 and Marine 1? Who was she near at #Debates2020? All this contact tracing matters. And they all need to be quarantined.
4) And what if Trump and others test negative? Are they out of the woods? Not necessarily. But they MUST TRACE FAST meantime. Why? Cuz if slow, the asymptomatic infected can transmit before they realize they are positive!!! See Alice-Bob-Carol example.
5) Furthermore, I hate to say it, but incubation time can sometimes EXCEED even the 14 day quarantine time!! There are several studies. One says 12% exceed 14 days, other study says only 1% exceed 14 days. I wrote a LONG thread 🧵 on this way back in April. Somehow relevant again
6) BOTTOMLINE: 📌14 day quarantine might not be long enough because of really long duration. ➡️ Thus, we need to be careful from a precautionary principle. Maybe consider increasing quarantine time to 16 or 17 days to be more certain. #COVID19
7) As for the Biden infected question, most likely he is okay. Even if Trump is positive (not sure yet) and got it from Hope in 2 days prior, Trump wouldn’t have been able to transmit to Biden so soon at debate. Unless of course Trump got it earlier—but then tests would’ve shown.
8) Furthermore, Hope was far away from Biden at debate. Bottomline - Biden most likely safe. I’m more worried about other Hicks contacts like VP Pence and other staffers.
9) Followup on Joe Biden discussion.
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