Thread by @BigBiteNow

1/11
Another interesting #AVCT slide I liked, which again supports what I have been saying today.

"Avacta is addressing the very significant COVID-19 testing opportunity in UK first and will continue to scale manufacturing to meet global demand"

What a lovely sentence that is.

2/11
Particularly when they go on to talk about 30m people testing themselves once a week, delivering 120m tests per month.

That's just one market.

"Therefore the commercial opportunity form Avacta is determined by supply capacity and not demand"

Lovely sentence mark 2

3/11
Yes they talk about self testing but until that is available (post field studies etc), business can be encouraged to take up the strain. Such things as tax credits etc come to mind, meaning a shoot for such a number, starts when professional use gets the green light.

4/11
Now notice that the "OEMS deals have the potential to expand the commercial opportunity for Avacta," is stated under the "addressing the very significant. . . opportunity in the UK first" umbrella. . .

So stand by your beds on that one.

5/11
The UK-RTC team version 2.10, that is now forming under AVCT, is stated as being capable of 10s of millions but to really grasp the opportunity, others need to take up the strain.

This has already begun on the Affimer production side of things because...

6/11
...Dr Smith talks about "also putting in place very large scale contract manufacturing partners"

"UK based. . .that will allow us to scale that up to very large volumes, which"

(and this is the truly mind blowing bit)

7/11
"if we get up to that 120m per month or even higher numbers, by accessing other markets around the world, that will require some 3rd party contract manufacturing."

So the 120m fig, isn't being presented as total market of which AVCT would like to capture a healthy part of,

8/11
it is being presented at the market AVCT, are soley focused on creating for themselves.

Rocket anyone?

On the very next slide, he talks about the existing partners being able to achieve "several millions" per month and "significant upscaling" required to meet the demand

9/11
But it speaks to "the requirement to put in capacity overseas. . .to meet that demand"

"will put through all the manufacturing we possibly can in the UK"

BUT
"we are very actively in discussions with manufacturers overseas. . .SE Asia."

What that clearly says to me,

10/11
is two things.

1. The existing partners have a carrot/stick scenario going on here. Yes they have other commitments but do they really have the sort of number involved, that AVCT is now talking about?

2. If there are other partners with capacity exist in the UK,

11/11
then a deal is going to get done. So #ODX very much in the frame and a matter of time in my view until they are on board.

All of which leaves me with just 1 question.

How does Dr Smith stays so cool, whilst delivering such a massive message to the market?

Big respect.