What is the economic cost of not going to #ZeroCOVID?
Some countries are enjoying normal life, minimal restrictions except limitations on international travel. Domestic economies are thriving and even tourism benefits from local travel.
Let’s look at several reports:
1/
Boston Consulting Group Report
“the sooner a country can limit the spread of the virus…the shorter the period that the economy will be frozen, and the sooner people can get back to work”
2/
International Monetary Fund Report
3/
McKinsey Report #1
Ending lockdowns alone won’t restore confidence or growth. Only when the novel coronavirus is under control will economic growth resume.
4/
mckinsey.com/industries/hea…
McKinsey Report #2
"Countries that focused on keeping virus spread near zero got their economies moving faster than others"
5/
mckinsey.com/featured-insig…
Our analytic study of the outbreak dynamics shows a very robust result:
Short term investment gives long term gain.
Theory and data agree, it is not accidental that it is obvious that countries that have suppressed the outbreak are doing well.
endcoronavirus.org/papers/minimiz…
6/
Financial times: "New Zealand, Inc. reaps benefit of hard and fast Covid lockdown"
7/
New Zealand Response was applauded by business leaders as “Best in the World”
Makes a lot of sense when it is understood, and the vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this.
8/
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
Here is a letter from a business group in Australia to the government to influence their policies. It worked!
9/
Epidemiologist and Economist:
"To save lives and the economy, we need another lockdown.
Dr. Osterholm, Director Center for Infectious Disease, University of Minnesota.
Mr. Kashkari, President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opi…
10/
It is always better to act sooner than later.
Economic rational behavior: If you are willing to lock down for a number of cases, you should also be willing to lockdown for fewer cases, the cost is always lower.
…
11/
Data: No tradeoff between health and economics.
…
12/
Research shows many people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital (surprise!) so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID
"COVID-19 Doesn’t Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs" National Bureau of Economic Research
13/
doi.org/10.3386/w27264
More research showing people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID
Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research
14/
doi.org/10.3386/w27432
Stopping COVID means the economy recovers because NORMAL life is restored
The vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this
The business community, including the most vulnerable businesses, should push hardest for elimination
Asking for support is OK
15/
The time it takes is important to know
From experience, going all out, it takes 3-4 weeks to reduce cases/day by 100X
From 100,000 to 1,000
From 1,000 to 10
Substantial drop
2-3 more weeks and the country can open up
This has been done
Needed: Leadership & cooperation
Podcast for investors and executives
Podcast home link
macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/…
DIrect link to listen to the podcast
macrohive.com
Look below the graphic on the upper left. Podcast itself begins at 3:48
IBEC podcast
Our paper on lowest-cost pandemic conditions showing the lowest cost is for fewest cases.
#ZeroCovid
Links for pdf
arxiv.org/abs/2102.04758
necsi.edu/lowest-cost-vi……
endcoronavirus.org/papers/lowest-…
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.