Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ZeroCovid

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Gute Frage!
Ich habe zwar kaum Reichweite, erlaube mir aber dennoch meine Gedanken zur Frage,
weshalb die Forderung nach #ZeroCovid nicht nur von Mediziner*innen, sondern generell wenig geäußert wird.

Ein Thread.
1/x Image
Maximale Eindämmung von #Corona wurde von Pandemiebeginn an, als nur in autoritären, die Demokratie und den Datenschutz vernachlässigenden Staaten für machbar deklariert,
der neuseeländische Weg als Sonderfall eines Inselstaats abgetan.

Die Konnotationen dazu lauteten medial im Frühjahr fast ausschließlich "harter, alle wirtschaftliche Existenz vernichtender, ewiger Lockdown", "Verzicht auf nahezu alle grundgesetzlich verankerte Freiheiten" usw.
Read 13 tweets

So #COVIDzero is trending.

What's not to like about zero cases of #COVID19?

1. How can we get there?
2. Is this feasible in Canada?

Some unpopular opinions & perhaps a few hard truths below...
2/ With a #COVIDzero strategy or not, it is clear that we should improve/continue to:

1. Evaluate & address drivers of #COVID19 in the community

2. Bolster a Test-Trace-Isolate-Support system

3. Support communities & businesses disproportionately impacted by the virus

3/ What would it actually take to *operationalize* #COVIDzero in Canada? How do we get to (or near) zero cases & maintain it?

***It would take prolonged & full lockdown (3-5 months based on current burden?) where #COVID19 is crushed, then ongoing supports to suppress this***
Read 15 tweets
⚠️WOW—Austria will now implement mass testing of **EVERY SINGLE MAN WOMAN CHILD** living in 🇦🇹. Every student & teacher will be tested by Dec 7th, & everyone else tested by Christmas. Just announced by @sebastiankurz at press conf—more to come— @andreafeigl1 for updates. #COVID19
2) Why is Austria doing this^? Because 🇦🇹 currently has the highest rate of #COVID19 infection in the WORLD. Testing everyone is needed in order to facilitating isolation, quarantine and contact tracing, per @michaelmina_lab’s mass testing strategy.
3) Granted, repeat testing is better, but mass testing, especially the (newer generation) rapid antigen tests, can also remove volumes of positives out of circulation. Austria has 22% positivity, which likely also reflects woefully insufficient testing.…
Read 4 tweets
Wie weiter in der #Coronapandemie unter den aktuellen Umständen?

Ohne ins Detail zu gehen möchte ich berichten,
dass die Kontaktnachverfolgung nicht mehr funktioniert,
Isolation sehr spät angeordnet wird,
Quarantänen spät,
sehr kurz oder erstmal gar nicht verhängt werden.
Trotz einem immer noch hocheffizient und damit weiterhin sehr schnell arbeitenden Labor werden die nötigen Schritte nach Diagnosestellung viel zu spät eingeleitet.
Zumindest dann, wenn das übergeordnete Ziel immer noch lautet,
infektiöse Personen von der Öffentlichkeit fernzuhalten, solange sie infektiös sind.
Parallel dazu scheint der Zugriff auf Tests immer schwieriger zu werden, auch wenn Pat. die neuen RKI Testkriterien erfüllen.
Read 7 tweets
Der Westen hat versagt - die USA und Europa haben das Krisenmanagement verbockt

Westliche Führungskräfte waren in jeder Phase der Covid-Pandemie „Langsam-Merker“

(Übersetzt nach bestem Wissen und Gewissen - Danke an @EsoInfo1)
Die Pandemie ist nirgendwo einfach gewesen. Doch während sich die Bürger der westlichen Welt auf einen Winter einstellen, der sie weitgehend auf ihr Zuhause beschränkt, drängen sich in Australien die Rentner in den Bars, die Straßen Taipehs sind belebt
Read 38 tweets
📍ZERO COVID in Australia in 5 months! And don’t dare say it’s some island like Taiwan—it’s a continent! 🇦🇺 adopted an approach of lockdowns & proactive testing & tracing, & Victoria—90% of #COVID19 deaths—imposed one of the severest stay-at-home rules.…
2) Let this sink in:

Taiwan w/ 23 mil people, has had ZERO #COVID19 cases in 200 days. Zero cases, not just deaths. #ZeroCovid

If Taiwan was a US state, it would be the #3 largest after Texas and larger than Florida. You don’t wanna know how many cases those states have daily.
3) to be clear, the story is about Australia achieving #ZeroCovid for first time in 5 months. A few read it another way.
Read 3 tweets
BREAKING—US has now surpassed 9,000,000 cases of #COVID19.

Accelerated since last month—newest mil only took 14 days.

1 mil April 28
2 mil June 10
3 mil July 7
4 mil July 23
5 mil Aug 8
6 mil Aug 30
7 mil Sept 25
8 mil Oct 15
9 mil Oct 29
2) My FAS team further tabulated this in a chart. HT to @euromaestro. (Dates may be off by 1 day due to reporting date vs occurrence date).
3) my team’s latest STATE BY STATE case report for the week. Follow for weekly updates.

(HT @euromaestro). #COVID19
Read 5 tweets
Let this sink in:

Taiwan w/ 23 mil people... has had ZERO #COVID19 cases in 200 days. Zero cases, not just deaths. #ZeroCovid

If Taiwan was a US state, it would be the #3 largest after Texas and larger than Florida. You don’t wanna know how many cases those states have daily.
2) Overall Taiwan has only had 550 cases and 7 deaths all year. Why? Because they take public health seriously.…
3) Incredible video of how Taiwan conquered the virus.
Read 4 tweets
1. Your hear a lot of rubbish explanations in the west on why #china (and #asean countries) have been able to dominate #covid19 but the west and my country #Ireland has failed

Sloppy answers from "experts" that have never been here in #mainland focus on a few points...

1) authoritarian rule
2) cultural background of mask use
3) collectivism vs individual

Wrong, wrong and wrong and missing the key point

#china is winning for one very simple reason above all else


#healthcare #capacity
#digital capacity
3. Central to China's response has been its ability to leverage its vast #digital ecosystem and piggyback its pandemic response systems onto existing digital assets

U thought #wechat (China's digital Swiss army knife) was just a messanger and payments platform?
Read 8 tweets
Israel: Organization of 100,000 self employed ("I am Shulman") calls for #zeroCOVID strategy and protecting green zones

"What can we do to save the situation, even though this government sucks?

Each and every one of us can take part in an effort.."…
In Israel: Down from 6,000 cases per day to below 1,000 cases per day.

Keep going! 6 weeks to #ZeroCOVID

Some areas are already COVID-free Green zones.
Read 4 tweets
TO #RepresentationMatters US WHO HAD FULL KNOWLEDGE WE WERE ENTITLED TO @HumanRightsLawA #Article2 @_lesliethomas @EssexBarrister THAT WLD HAVE ALLOWED US TO BE REPRESENTED JUST AS ANY OTHER @Refugees_EU GETS BUT I WAS BORN IN @GREATBritain INTO THE HELL OF @lambeth_council
Read 15 tweets
„Wir können nicht ganz Deutschland dicht machen, nur weil die Infektionszahlen in einer Region explodieren“ sagt @tobiashans

In der Folge werden wir der Epidemie nie Herr werden, denn sobald es in einer betroffenen Gegend wieder besser wird, kommt es wieder von aussen.
Klar, kann man versuchen, so irgendwie Zeit zu gewinnen um dann in ca. 2 Jahren mit etwas Glück ausreichend Schutz durch Impfungen in der Bevölkerung aufgebaut zu haben, damit keine lokalen "Shutdowns" mehr nötig sind.

Aber ich hege Zweifel, ob das der beste Lösungsansatz ist.
So kam der Internationale Währungsfond zu dem Schluss, daß Lockdowns mit anschliessender Suppression nahe 0 besser für die Wirtschaft sei als die Folgen jahrelangem Konsumrückgangs aufgrund von wiederholten Gegenmaßnahmen und Angst der Bevölkerung.
Read 5 tweets
(THREAD) Here is my understanding of the UK's Covid situation, and why we need a circuit breaker NOW.
Whether we call it a circuit breaker or a lockdown, some dramatic cessation of normal activity is inevitable fairly soon. If we just carry on at the present rate, we should expect to be up to around 2000 deaths a day by the end of the year.
In fact, that’s probably optimistic, as the collapse of a number of local hospital systems by that point will mean a greatly increased case fatality rate and/or an increase in ordinarily preventable non-COVID deaths. It’s hard to predict exactly when it’ll happen, but ...
Read 18 tweets
1/ The way I see it there are 4 "schools" on how to respond to this crisis (with a lot of levels in between of course):

1. #ZeroCovid (eradication)
2. Suppression until vaccine
3. Mitigation in parallel to vaccine and treatment development
4. Do nothing
2/ 1 and 4 are extremes. They both have serious flaws. On the one hand humanity has only eradicated very few diseases with very particular characteristics.
3/ On the other hand "do nothing" is not ethical, we must ethically strive to minimize damage caused by the pandemic.

What to do then?
Read 17 tweets
AB: Daily new cases grow exponentially since May 25.

Doubling time calculated for May 25 - Oct 15 is:
50 days (~7 weeks) (95% CI [45, 57])

It can flip to a faster rate at *any time*
It cannot slow down by itself.

Even at a current rate it's bad;
It means:
It means, that even if the growth won't speed up, we will have:
500 daily new cases by Dec 03
1000 daily new cases by Jan 21

and so on..., doubling every 7 weeks.

Persistent exponential growth means that the virus spread is not under control.

It's not a "Slow Burn"* or a "Dance", oscillating around some fixed number.
This is a constant growth.
Slowish, yet persistent.

(*Disclaimer: I'm against Slow Burn as a goal. I'm for #ZeroCovid)
Read 6 tweets
1. A while ago, I wrote about a frog in a pot of boiling water. This is the latest turn of the dial. A vaccine is not coming to our rescue. If one can be developed, it will be used 'strategically' to minimise suffering. Alarm bells should be ringing for everyone.
2. The government's response was based on pandemic flu. Some of us warned this was a mistake back in February, but we now know for certain #SARSCoV2 is not like flu. Instead of pursuing #ZeroCovid, which is the only approach that's shown success...

3. ... the UK government is planning to let the virus take root in the country. Here's what that approach has delivered so far, contrasted with other countries who've taken the opposite approach.

Thanks to @99Organisation for this chart plotting economic and health performance.
Read 9 tweets
1. What is the government's current #COVID19 strategy?

Here is Chris Whitty on 4th March explaining the government's strategy was late intervention and early release.

But what is it now?

2. The UK government and its scientific advisers believed it was appropriate to use the influenza pandemic plan to respond to a human coronavirus. This BMJ editorial examines why the UK's response was so deeply flawed.…
3. It seems we're making the same mistakes. #SARSCoV2, the virus that causes #COVID19, is not influenza. Flu is highly contagious and a containment strategy for flu would fail. #SARSCoV2 transmits differently as this excellent article by @zeynep explains.…
Read 17 tweets
1. PM: “How do you ensure that places across the country continue to fight the virus effectively whilst keeping the economy moving?”

This is the wrong question. The economy cannot function effectively while this virus is spreading.
2. #ZeroCovid to best protect the economy.

#ZeroCovid to best protect public health.

Other countries have shown what works. We should learn from them instead of continuing down a middle path that maximises damage to public health and the economy.
3. Example: Japan is one of many countries to use masks in classrooms. Why are we clinging to this daft idea schools aren’t vectors for transmission when the government’s own analysis shows they are? Let’s learn from other countries.
Read 5 tweets
1. At the moment the UK is fumbling along a path somewhere between two contrasting approaches to #COVID19. On the one hand there is the ‘herd immunity’ policy of places like Manaus. Open up, shield those you can, let ‘er rip.
2. And on the other, the #ZeroCOVID policy of places like Taiwan, New Zealand, Vietnam and others.
3. I believe the muddle along strategy will deliver the worst possible results; high levels of infection AND economic harm, but there’s no sign of the government changing course.

Which approach do you think the UK should take?

Pls RT for a wider sample.
Read 3 tweets
1. Magic? Luck? Positive thinking?

When historians look back, they will note the difference between countries that handled the #COVID19 pandemic well and those that didn’t was a question of leadership. ImageImageImageImage
2. Historians will probably wonder why countries like the UK and France could not muster the community spirit to protect the elderly & vulnerable, and prevent long-term complications in a significant number of previously healthy people.
3. Historians will probably question the cult of consumerism that led people to openly argue that thousands of lives should be sacrificed because the measures taken by other countries were simply too difficult. A rotten brand of individualism that deems others expendable.
Read 7 tweets
1. So:
Testing broken
Economy crashed
Reinfection is a thing
2,000 schools with confirmed cases
~ 1 million kids absent
Long-term complications of infection
Uni students captive
Hospitality & events industry crushed
Cases, hospitalisation & deaths all up...
2. Can we agree the government’s approach has failed and, as Sweden admits similar, can we finally ignore all the deniers & minimisers? Can we copy Vietnam, Thailand and other countries that have succeeded? Lockdown until cases are close to zero (we were almost there in June)...
3. Deliver proper test, trace & isolate, physical distancing, mandate masks everywhere (including schools) & implement border testing & quarantine. It’s basically what I suggested to @MattHancock in March, but some deemed it too costly. Bet it looks cheap now.
Read 4 tweets
1. Late intervention ensures maximum harm to people’s health and the economy. We’re making the same mistakes all over again.
2. While our government considers imprisoning university students over Christmas, China is rocking the party vibe.
3. Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, New Zealand and others now have similar freedom because they pursued #ZeroCovid
Read 6 tweets
Teveel zieken voor de ziekenhuizen, dat lijkt niet meer te voorkomen. Wat dan?

Het kabinet zal rekenen op voortgaande huisartstriage. Hou ze gewoon weg, "in goed overleg". Dat remt de stroom enorm af, maar draait al. Niet voldoende. Draad ⬇️
Afremmen met traceren heeft geen zin meer, het is lockdown of uitrazen.

Een lockdown van een maand of wat lost veel op, dan kan je weer gaan onderdrukken met test-trace-isolate, maskers etc.

Maar de kans daarop is lang niet 100%.
Want een lockdown heeft nu alleen zin als je van plan bent je verspreidingsbeleid weg te gooien en voor nul #zeroCovid te gaan. Engeland besloot daar gisteren toe. Dat kan alleen bij enorme personeelswisselingen. Niet waarschijnlijk.
Read 7 tweets

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