Concerning—Top pandemic expert group @IndependentSage just came out with chilling stern warning:🧵
📍”It is now clear that new variant is substantially more transmissible than earlier variants, by 40-80%.”
📍”Pandemic is now out of control”. #COVID19 independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…
2) “This increases the R number by between 0.4 & 0.8– current Tier 4 restrictions are unable to contain its spread, even w/ closure of schools & universities. The pandemic is now out of control, and the NHS is struggling, with some hospitals having to stop non-COVID activities.”
3) “The NHS is no longer being protected. For these reasons, there is a strong argument for maximising the coverage of the population with at least one dose of vaccine, even though this requires a change to the dosage schedule.”
4) “The urgency of concerted and effective action to supress the new variant cannot be overstated. While it is a very difficult & finely balanced decision, SAGE endorses the decision to pursue coverage of as high a proportion of the population as possible, as quickly as possible”
5) “as part of a comprehensive strategy. This must, however, be accompanied by other measures, as follows:”
Notably, they also advocate to “restrict movement to/from GB 🇬🇧 to the rest of the world”.
6) Meanwhile, here is the other UK govt SAGE (as opposed to Independent Sage) on kids and schools and teachers.
7) the new 🇬🇧B117 is a beast of a #SARSCoV2 variant. The variant adds ~ 0.4-0.7 to the R (Reproductive number). What could keep in check via containment, R<1, now with +0.5 added infectiousness, means the virus will go unchecked—very bad. #COVID19
8) and now we know the relative increase in children vs old strain compared to adults. It’s relatively greater increase in kids 0-9.
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