Thread by @antoguerrera

In the following thread - like I used to do in a previous life - I'll try to explain what's going on politically in #Italy (not an easy task, tbh) & what are the possible outcomes after President Mattarella asked former ECB president Mario Draghi to form a new, crucial government

1. First of all: as you know former PM Conte left because he lost his majority.

Why?

In a nutshell: former PM Matteo Renzi decided he had to go officially because "Conte lacked a long term strategy", so he and his party (whose 18 MPs were crucial) left the governing coalition"

2. According to Renzi, Conte's executive was governing "day by day" and they were not planning anything in the long term, such as how to spend the EU money from the so-called "Recovery Fund", something that must be submitted to EU authorities quite urgently.

#crisidigoverno

3. Disclaimer: despite his approval looks very poor atm (his party is at 3% as per polls) Renzi is maybe the most shrewd and Machiavellian politician in Italy.

He removed former PM Letta to replace him.

He masterminded Conte's government after Salvini quitted.

He failed it.

4. All in all, if his approval ratings are at their lowest point maybe, he always manages to be influential and decisive, in one way or another.

In a way, more than a politician, he is a political broker, financially speaking.

5. In fact, maybe you saw Renzi yesterday and today giving interviews to a big bunch of international media, praising Draghi as "the best" and hinting, between the lines, that he again masterminded also his appointment by Italy's president Mattarella.

6. Ok, so now Renzi seems to be chilled-out again (for how long, nobody knows) with Mario Draghi "the best" trying to form a new government, which Renzi masterminded and wants to join of course.

But how difficult is for Draghi to form a new executive with the same Parliament?

7. To be clear: Mario Draghi is one of the utmost excellent personalities that Italy has right now. You might know that he is not a proper politician, he never formed a party, but he chaired boards like the ECB's and Bank of Italy's. And, of course, he is the man who saved euro.

8. I am not going into details on the possible coalitions from a very fragmented Italian Parliament, also because there are too many variables. Here you have a basic composition en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Ital…

What is interesting is what kind of government Draghi can make out of it. 🇮🇹

9. I am quite certain that Mattarella and Draghi want a more technocratic government, well respected in the EU, which may implement the so-called "long-term reforms" which Italy is still far from and fully use the Recovery Fund.

This scenario has a downside though.

10. The downside is this:

the more technocratic Draghi's government is, the more fragmented his coalition will be. And then more unstable.

Why?

Because he will have to rely on 2 main parties (PD + Berlusconi), Renzi, and a varied galaxy of dissidents from the other formations.

11. This, especially in light of forthcoming structural reforms, is going to be very tricky, maybe already after a few months.

But there is an alternative: a more political government.

Not Draghi's and Mattarella's cup of tea. But sure more stable.

#italy 🇮🇹

12. But this task isn't easy either. Because, as above, the Italian Parliament (Lower House + Senate) is quite fragmented and a huge effort is needed to form a new political government.

But wait, why not repeat the same coalition of former PM Conte: PD + Renzi + 5 Star movement?

13. This is a very important point. Because the 5 Star Movement is basically split between the more ideological part (against finance, banks and euro) and the more pragmatic side (Di Maio and former ministers).

It is rumored that M5S founder Beppe Grillo is more "ideological".

14. The big question for M5S is.

How dangerous is for them to be in a Dragh government?

Pretty much. Because of its populist large base. Also, if Salvini stays in opposition, he might steal votes.

Remember: M5S greatest success came after opposing Monti, very similar to Draghi

15. Huge dilemma. But let's suppose that M5S stays out of Draghi's govt.

The other decisive character of this story is Matteo Salvini, the leader of right-wing party League.

But wait, how is possible that Salvini, who has been anti-euro for a long time, might now JOIN DRAGHI?

16. First of all: in Italy's politics impossible is nothing.

Secondly, Salvini belongs to the same coalition front with Berlusconi, who wants to join Draghi, unlike the other opposition partner, the right-wingh Brothers of Italy.

But there is third more important point, IMHO.

17. If M5S stays out of Draghi's government and Draghi OKs him, Salvini has a huge opportunity to be back into the spotlight and become very influential again.

He could be the anti-EU deterrent to Draghi pro-EU government.

He could pull the plug off whenever he wants to.

18. Is it really a possible scenario?

If Draghi cannot find a majority and Salvini asks to join... it's not impossible.

Draghi could then try to "control" Salvini in a government.

Salvini could regain an international spot and appear more institutional - if it's real or not.

19. This is just speculation, but I think that Salvini could also turn into a Trojan Horse in Draghi's government, in this scenario.

There might be a common strategy by Salvini and Brothers of Italy: one in government, the other at opposition, with the same aim:

Burn Draghi out

20. But it's also possible that Draghi will not be able to form a new government.

In that case, there will be 2 major consequences:

1) A new election is gonna be inevitable.

2) The chances of Draghi as a potential future President of Italy might get seriously tarnished.

🇮🇹

21. Wait, we said that Draghi was appointed to form a government as new PM.

Why I said that he might become the new President as well.

Well, rumours and speculations say that, if everything goes smoothly, after a spell as PM, he is poised to become the new President of Italy.

22. Because, yes, this is another chapter of this dramatic political puzzle.

Mattarella's presidential term ends early next year.

So, the Parliament, in this utterly turmoil, is going to elect also the new President.

And this is another massive, overlapping issue.

23. Another complication is that the last 6 months of a Presidential term are the so-called "White semester", during which the President cannot dissolve the Italian Parliament and call a new election. 😱

So, if needed, Italy should go for a new election before Aug 2021.

#Italy

24. So, Mario Draghi and Italy have enormous challenges ahead.

If Draghi manages to form a government in the next few days, ruling is going to be a very tough task.

If he is not able to do it, his political career risks to be burned out. And a new election will be inevitable.

25. And also, what is PM Conte then going to do? Be a proper politician and not only a PM? Another huge variable.

Please note that most polls see League and Fratelli d'Italia (two radical right-wing parties) ahead and the most likely to form a new government after an election.

26. That's why Draghi's challenge ahead is extremely delicate.

After the last technocratic government (Monti's), Italy voters gave way to the maybe most populist executive after WW2: Salvini's League + Grillo's and Di Maio's Five Star Movement.

Something similar can now happen.

27. I hope I was clear & concise enough to explain a very complicated matter like Italian politics, especially right now.

Oh well, maybe not only right now.

Draghi's government would be #Italy's 73rd government in 78 years (since 1943)

Thanks for your attention and cheerio! 🇮🇹