Thread by @akarlin

This year will see epochal #DeFi boom: BTC $100k, ETH $10k - ending in a bust (dotcom bubble).

Then a long winter, when hardy survivors can be picked up at fire sale prices.

And then, come the 2030s - just like software 20 years ago - crypto will "eat the world." #prediction

This is extremely specific and unlikely to happen in quite this way, but I do think that generally, this is what will actually happen. Crypto is replicating all the institutions and infrastructure of the modern economy. But this boom came just a bit too early to actualize rn.

Last major digital asset to "moon" will be "land". Don't know if urbit will dominate, but does have "first mover" advantage. Stars currently worth ~$5,000, might increase 100x within the decade. Window of opportunity for competitors is narrowing fast (Metcalfe's Law).

Yes, I know urbit is currently unusable for normies. Doesn't matter. If anything, that's feature, not bug, since it allows an "elect" to seize its "commanding heights". Accessibility will improve with time and traffic will follow.

People overestimate the importance of quality; it can be fixed, whereas network effect is permanent boost. I recall a friend c.2010 claiming Facebook would fail because of its, quote, "atrocious codebase." This is also why ETH will win. "Bad restaurant - too crowded" syndrome.

Long-term steady state is official national cryptos with smart contracts replacing law (e.g. taxes on commercial transactions & exchanges for other cryptos i.e. "crypto flight"). All sales already, by law, have to occur in the national currency.

Gold as percentage of world wealth has declined inexorably over the centuries - prices remained steady since 1550, while GDP grew much more rapidly than gold production. Meanwhile, silver plummeted even relative to gold over the longue durée.

This is relevant to the thread, who can guess why.

That is, over the long-term, Bitcoin will be the road to (crypto-)penury.