Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #prediction

Most recents (24)

My textbook with Kosuke Imai (@Harvard) is finally out!

Assuming no prior knowledge of statistics or coding and only minimal knowledge of math, DSS teaches the fundamentals of survey research, predictive models, and causal inference + how to analyze real-world data with R.

🧵.. Image
1/n: DSS is meant for complete beginners, regardless of whether they are in high school, in graduate school, or out of school altogether. #rstats #surveys #prediction #causality

Want to see for yourself? The first chapter is free here:

Book outline: Image
2/n: We wrote DSS so that anyone could learn the skills we teach by following along with the exercises in the book on their own computer, without the help of an instructor. (Everything needed is either in the book or on the book's website.) #rstats #surveys #prediction #causality Image
Read 19 tweets
Maybe another word on the '#unredacted Fauci emails', now that it is clear that there were no cover-ups or suppression of #lableak, but just neutral #scientific discussion.

Observe how lableak advocates will run their #disinformation playbook, we've seen this before.

A 🧵

Everytime new contradictory information (to the lableak conspiracy myth) comes out, there is an increase in #activity by lableak advocates.

We've seen this with the BANAL sequences in LAOS that proved that the RBD domain of SARS-CoV-2 was not 'manmade'
We've seen this in response to 2 scientific papers that establish the Huanan market as the center & start of the pandemic.

(Worth re-reading this thread too)

Read 15 tweets

I think it's likelier than not that Kherson reverts to Ukraine by EOM January 2023. Not high conviction call but multiplicity of evidence now points to that.

Main focus will be on preserving the one Pyrrhic gain from the war, the Crimean Corridor.
I adjust to reality.

Kherson only useful as springboard into Nikolaev and later Odessa. Spending ≤5% of GDP on military is insufficient to man or munition such offensives, while also plugging LNR and Zaporozhye. The Dnieper is much more defensible.
Reality is, Kherson is a smallish, poor provincial city and of the 8 Novorossiya provinces, the least pro-Russian from 2013/14 polls. In denying Ukraine manpower or industries, its loss is close to inconsequential. Main problem is that the dam may then go & Crimea goes dry again.
Read 5 tweets
Kosuke Imai (@Harvard) and I are thrilled to announce that our introductory book for complete beginners is already available in ebook! #rstats #socialscience @PrincetonUPress

The first chapter is available for free here:…

An overview 🧵...
1/n: Data Analysis for Social Science (DSS) is a more accessible version of Kosuke Imai's Quantitative Social Science (QSS), Princeton University Press, 2017.
2/n: Assuming no prior knowledge of statistics or coding and only minimal knowledge of math, DSS teaches the fundamentals of data analysis for social science while analyzing data from published research with the free and popular statistical program R. #rstats #socialscience
Read 21 tweets
💡Zététique ou Autodéfense intellectuelle ? (thread)

Lors de mon enseignement des bases de la #PenséeCritique, la « #zététique » et l'#AutodéfenseIntellectuelle m'ont été présentées de façon confondue : il m'a été longtemps difficile de faire la part des choses entre les deux.👇
De plus, sans même parler d'#AutodéfenseIntellectuelle, la définition du terme #Zététique elle-même semble être différente d'une personne à l'autre.
Je vais ici vous en exposer ma compréhension depuis les cours de @RichMonvoisin à son utilisation dans la communauté des #SceptiquesRationnel·les française et parler brièvement des idéologies associées comme l'#AutodéfenseIntellectuelle afin d'éviter les épouvantails.
Read 60 tweets
Every now and then I will make a #thread 🧵 of #threads 🧵 to keep you all updated on the #alpha I shared across time on #Twitter.

Today is the day. I don't know how long this will be.

Let's start with the previous threads🧵of threads🧵
Read 18 tweets
I have been studying the future of science for 18 months now. In this thread, I will (slowly) list some of the insights gained thus far on the estimating of futures of science (EFS).
1. The goal of EFS is not so much to predict future discoveries and innovations as to (i) understand the structural features of the future, and (ii) critically engage with conceptions of science that shape the visions and actions for the future.
2. There are many interesting similarities between approaches in futures research and philosophy of science. For example, philosophy of science has provided insight similar to those provided by causal layered analysis (CLA).
Read 119 tweets
Re: ideas on #risk, #prediction, #data, and #life, which were inspired by a #random phone call during a break from classes @NYUStern:

Short thread below 👇🏻

1 The information you have is not the information you want.
2 The information you want is not the information you need.
Read 6 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 09/04/2021…
Study shows a whale of a difference between songs of birds and humpbacks…

#songs #birds #HumpbackWhales #ResearchStudy #differences
A Function Approximation Approach to the Prediction of Blood Glucose Levels…

#BloodGlucose #levels #prediction #diabetes #FunctionApproximation
Read 8 tweets
We are delighted to announce the release of #PhageAI 0.10.0: extended repository and the new #phage #prediction tool: #chronic #lifecycle. 1/4
Each of the #phage genome has computed a new numerical vector representation by #Phage2Vec technology, re-classified #lifecycles and re-computed nearest neighborhood what introduced updated alignment-free top-10 similar #bacteriophages registry. 2/4
Furthermore, we released beta #bacteriophage #taxonomy #prediction tool.

Feel free to extend your account role from basic to Expert user using "My Profile" view, to access it from the @PhageAI. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Who is going to win the league, and who is going to be relegated? Over 60 Swiss football lovers have made yet a season prediction in our new guessing game. The results contain a few surprises.…

#football #superleague #prediction
The predictions so far:
- @BSC_YB on top, but not as dominant as predicted by the robot
- @FCBasel1893 2nd with a huge margin to YB but also the rest
- @ServetteFC & @FCL_1901 seen as best of the rest
- Relegation battle vs. @FCSion & @gc_zuerich
#bscyb #rotblaulive #servettefc
@BSC_YB @FCBasel1893 @ServetteFC @FCL_1901 @FCSion @gc_zuerich @FC_Basel_en @FC_Basel_fr @FCLugano1908 @lausanne_sport You can still make your prediction here. Countdown runs out when the season starts next week.…
Read 5 tweets
Doc I'm stressed, I need a #CoffeeBreak

How trying out #SmallTestsofChange and #PDSA could be used to improve staff #Wellbeing during a long medical ward round

Would be great to see what you think, and if you have tried something like this.

Follow #Thread and click on pics
During a consultant ward round on a 30 bedded respiratory ward, one of our ACP's said that she found the 4-hour long ward round stressful and tiring, and was wondering whether we could include a break of some sort for a cup of tea or coffee #changeidea. To refresh the staff.
The consultant was worried that if we did this, we may not complete ward round by 1pm and potentially delay management of patients. And lead to even more stress!
Read 12 tweets
A slew of in press and under review (first-authored) preprints from mine and @jackson_josh_'s backlog: A tweet thread. (More from Josh to come.)
Now in press at the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology: part of my preregistered dissertation "A Mega-Analysis of #Personality #Prediction: Robustness and Boundary Conditions" (
Materials on GitHub (…) and OSF ( Formatted results in Shiny (…) and a standalone page (…).
Read 12 tweets
This year will see epochal #DeFi boom: BTC $100k, ETH $10k - ending in a bust (dotcom bubble).

Then a long winter, when hardy survivors can be picked up at fire sale prices.

And then, come the 2030s - just like software 20 years ago - crypto will "eat the world." #prediction
This is extremely specific and unlikely to happen in quite this way, but I do think that generally, this is what will actually happen. Crypto is replicating all the institutions and infrastructure of the modern economy. But this boom came just a bit too early to actualize rn.
Last major digital asset to "moon" will be "land". Don't know if urbit will dominate, but does have "first mover" advantage. Stars currently worth ~$5,000, might increase 100x within the decade. Window of opportunity for competitors is narrowing fast (Metcalfe's Law).
Read 9 tweets
*4th PLACE* of our most impactful articles published in @RSeriesa in 2020 according to @altmetric:

Tanner et al:…

*CONTEXT* Dynamic prediction models provide predicted probabilities that can be updated over time as data become available. There is growing interest in the use of #machinelearning 🤖; yet, their use in the context of dynamic survival #prediction has been limited.
*AIM* Show how #landmarking can be combined with a #machinelearning ensemble to improve prediction performance

*METHOD* Use of discrete time #survivalanalysis techniques to enable the use of #machinelearning algorithms for binary outcomes
Read 4 tweets
Haven't been following Georgia. My guess is Republicans lose both. #prediction
Why would lower income Trump supporters (his base) vote for the party that failed to find Trump 11,780 votes and robbed them of $2,000 personally? I certainly wouldn't, I'd sit it out, myself.
Polls have both Dems up by 2% points (Biden was +1.2% and won by +0.2%).
And there's less reason for them to be inaccurate now too.…
Read 5 tweets
Explosive growth in number of Russian investors - participants on the Moscow stock exchange:
2013 - 1 million
2018 - 2 million
Last year - 3.5 million
Now - 6 million
Now (Jan 2021) - 9.5 million
Growing by 0.5M a month.
Russian economy beginning to enter intensive financialization period.
Get in there. Yandex, Ozon, mail ru (VK) still hugely undervalued, less risky/exotic than cryptos.
Russian GDP (nominal) is 10% of USA, likely to expand relative to it & Internet penetration is now near universal.
Yandex: $24B, Google: $1,400B (70x smaller)
60% of RU search market, doubles as RU Uber (Yandex Taxi), expanding into cloud, video, e-commerce, self-driving cars.
Read 5 tweets
@PredictIt, I signed up for your platform yesterday!

How do I propose a new market #prediction wager?
- I say @JoeBiden wins #Election2020,
BUT @realDonaldTrump will squat the @WhiteHouse,
& Biden operates as President, externally.

@FiveThirtyEight @voxdotcom
Remember, its all about holding mega real estate and projecting strong images for @realDonaldTrump.
All the #proudboys #altright #cryptofacistis supporters will arm-up and occupy the @WhiteHouse lawns to protect @realDonaldTrump from building eviction. Those camped out will linger for ~ 1 year until they realized they are hungry and aren't being paid for their efforts.
Read 8 tweets
Hmm. When is a "#scenario" NOT a "#forecast" - literally a "#prediction" or estimate of future events?

You may have multiple forecasts and, as with the weather, some may not come to pass. But you don't model scenarios that can't ever happen. What would be the point? Image
Again, and as with scientific papers, if people are reporting on something it's a good idea to publish (a link to) *the whole thing*. News reports may pick up on bits that are interesting, but #EvidenceMatters!
Read 3 tweets
#Prediction In 3-4 years time, many young/ middle aged professionals would have turned farmers after quitting their high paying jobs.
Practical approach. They would have earned decently to ensure their future. Going away from high stress jobs. Plus now the #FarmBills are approved
So they dont have to engage with the slimy political/ trader types one can expect to encounter in the APMCs. These people working in the corporate world would be more comfortable doing contract farming or creating their own linkages to sell their produce
In MH, this phenomenon would be mainly seen in Western MH where professionals working in Mumbai or Pune would love to return to their roots and lead a less hectic life (Not to say farming is an easy profession). The rest of the regions of MH could also see this trend
Read 5 tweets
This Government, which trumpets the transformative power of 'data-driven' #prediction, does seem awfully crap at predicting the obvious.

It's also pretty difficult to credibly claim to be "following the science" when you can't even be bothered to read it...
...and if the new head of the 'National Institute for Health Protection' can't spot the utterly bleedin' obvious, then maybe she's in the wrong job?

Let's hope her replacement has some actual #PublicHealth credentials!
This afternoon's full evidence session at @CommonsSTC:…

(Apart from the closed part at the beginning, of course.)
Read 3 tweets
Observations about Sweden:
• They are far from herd immunity:
• Social distancing is what keeps cases low right now:

So, a #prediction: *if* they relax social distancing too much they will be hit by a second wave of rising cases
Some countries also far from herd immunity have been able to keep cases close to zero thanks to social distancing, mass testing...

South Korea went nearly 6 months without a 2nd wave

Perhaps Sweden will hold out 6 months. We don't know *when* but we know a 2nd wave is possible Image
Covid cases jump +57% in Stockholm county: 526 this week, compared to 334 the week before

"The Stockholm region sees signs that the spread of infection is increasing in the county."

Almost like there's no herd immunity! #WhoCouldHaveGuessed?🤔… Image
Read 5 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 08/22/2020…
So Far, 2020 Has Been Our Year of Magical Thinking | The Nation…

#MagicalThinking #coronavirus
Complex systems science allows us to see new paths forward | Aeon Essays…

#coronavirus #SFI #complexity
Read 7 tweets

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