⚠️HUGE INCREASE IN KIDS—New Swedish 🇸🇪 data showing a sudden dramatic surge in pediatric #COVID19 cases across Sweden since Jan.
Kids age 0-9: Up ⬆️ 123%
Kids age 10-19: Up ⬆️ 72%
Likely due to surging #B117 variant, where it’s now 50% in Stockholm.🧵
(ht graph @DavidSteadson)
2) Is this pediatric surge in #COVID19 a statistical fluke? No. If we just look at the change from late Feb to first week of March, we still see this consistent surge in kids.
Also, @DavidSteadson notes, while many schools were open, high school grades 10-12 closed in person.
3) And where is the proof that #B117 is surging fast in Sweden 🇸🇪? Here on Swedish Public Health Authority’s website. Circled is Stockholm’s 53% #B117 proportion found in week 8 of 2021. Another region has 60%.
This #B117 surge is a real concern.
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-ber…
4) This matches data in UK... where #B117 is near complete dominant, and where kids now hold the highest positivity of all age groups in Feb, which was not previously the case.
5) This also matches the data and warnings coming from Italy 🇮🇹 health officials also concerned about the new sudden pediatric surge.
6) We had hints of this unusual pediatric trend long ago. Such as this #B117 outbreak in one village in Italy.
7) This also matches the newest French national data showing kids 0-9 having the highest % of #B117 of any age group.
8) A few of us first noticed some usual trends in late December / early January in the prelim U.K. data. But it was not fully conclusive back then. But it hinted something...
9) Which then was further corroborated in a few days later January 8th. Notably there was a somewhat larger relative % increase in attack rates in kids 0-9 compared to the older wild type (common) variants, than % increase in those older.
10) Kids transmission was long ago pointed out by UK’s leading SAGE expert group. But it has been further heightened in reality since...
11) There was a serious problem also with under diagnosis in kids too. This has exacerbated tracking kids transmission last year (hence a lot of early studies found “no effect of schools last year”). But they where wrong, says @dgurdasani1 —which the latest data now proves more.
12) Indeed, studies after studies show kids are well known drivers of transmission. And hence kids all need to mask in school (even if most teachers are soon vaccinated in the US).
13) And kids being the virus home to adults in the house. How do we know? A 3 million person study in Denmark via data from Danish CDC.
14) And then there is the hard to dispute clear cut data from Quebec which shows cases in students and teachers rising faster than general population... and then plummeting over winter holidays, then resurging once reopened again.
15) I’ll leave this figure here on relative change in #COVID19 cases in Quebec since mid January. One age group clearly stands out.
16) many reports of surges in pediatric cases in Israel 🇮🇱 despite many vaccinated. “Infection in children & school reopenings are a central concern—Children represent a larger proportion of infections than earlier in the pandemic” presumably due to #B117 google.com/amp/s/www.time…
17) To be clear, I’m pro *safe* school reopenings. And it is possible with good ventilation and air exchange. Here are the latest CDC school air quality guidance for #COVID19 risk.
18) And now Netherlands 🇳🇱 pediatric #COVID19 increase emerging too...
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