Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #B117

Most recents (24)

⚠️Global case decline has reversed—#COVID19 is once again surging overall worldwide / no longer dropping. Especially in Europe where the more contagious #B117 variant is driving faster spread & helping launch another wave (as I’ve been shouting at the rooftops for last month). 🧵 Image
2) Denmark is the perfect example — they knew it was coming with the #B117 dominance. They knew it was inevitable but nobody listened.
3) Denmark CDC warned us in January to not be complacent Image
Read 4 tweets
Worst fears of Denmark 🇩🇰 CDC coming true—

📌#B117 will be the dominant #SARSCoV2 variant

📌Cases stop falling

📌Cases rising as result

➡️ All 3 ominous predictions now true. Denmark surging. 🧵

🇩🇰 B117 in past weeks:

2%
4%
7%
13%
20%
30%
46%
57%

files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… ImageImage
2) The steady inevitable March of #B117 replacing the old strain is as constant as time. B117 will replace older less contagious common strains - and it certainly has. Denmark 🇩🇰 Data is best because they now genetically sequence 100% of all cases!!! Image
3) Denmark cases surge is now very different than before - a lot more reports of children not seen before. Here is an outbreak of #B117.
Read 6 tweets
Dear friends in British Columbia🇨🇦—you are a beautiful place & I’ve had family live/study there. You handled pandemic well last year. But BC is not doing well right now—it has the highest R currently in 🇨🇦—1.54 (figure from @DFisman) & the highest new cases per capita. Stay safe. ImageImage
3) I’m worried about other places in Canada too...
Read 4 tweets
1/ Q: Any news yet about whether vaccines prevent asymptomatic infection?

A: YES! We are getting a steady trail of clues hinting that the #vaccines DO IN FACT REDUCE INFECTIONS! Image
2/ The #clinicaltrials for the various #vaccines did not study whether they prevented asymptomatic infection or transmission. That’s because vaccines are thought of as medicine--something that operates at the individual level, not the pandemic-management level.
3/ So, the vaccine trials measured whether, compared to people who didn't get the vaccine, the people who were vaccinated had reduced risk for the worst of the bad clinical outcomes from COVID:
➡️ symptomatic COVID-19
➡️ hospitalization
➡️ and/or death.
Read 10 tweets
OUTBREAK OF NEW VARIANT IN 8 SCHOOLS in Toronto 🇨🇦—public health dept tonight just sent urgent warning about worrisome appearance of #SARSCoV2 variants (likely #B117) in 8 different local schools. Ontario has had several #B117 outbreaks already. 🧵toronto.ca/news/toronto-p… Image
2) City of Toronto has quarantined several cohorts of students in each school. But I’m not sure this is enough.
3) This Toronto variants outbreak is eerily similar to the #B117 initiated outbreak in British Columbia 🇨🇦 recently—7 schools all in a local cluster.
Read 4 tweets
[#Thread]
#SARSCOV2 & #VariantsOfConcern
#B117 #B1351 #P1
SARS-CoV-2▪︎Genetically related to 2003 SARS virus▪︎Named Feb 11 2020 #COVID19▪︎Feb 24 2021 Global Cases 112,409,584, Deaths 2,492,420▪︎Feb 24 2021 US Cases 28,313,003, Deaths 504,295

/1
#UKvariant #B117▪︎Discovered Sept 2020▪︎80+Countries▪︎1st US Dec 2020▪︎Feb 24 2021 US Cases 1,881 across 45 States▪︎Estimated 30-50% more transmissible (spreads easier&faster)▪︎UK suggests the strain may cause more severe cases & 30% increased risk of death. /2 Image
#SouthAfricanVariant #B1351▪︎Appx same time as #B117▪︎Feb 24 2021 US Cases 46 across 14 States▪︎Dominant strain in Zambia Dec2020▪︎Estimated 50% more transmissible▪︎No evidence yet of increased severity▪︎Mutated Spike Protein allowing latch to human cells easier/3 Image
Read 9 tweets
Mr Tice, are you aware that #COVIDisAirborne ?

Have you heard about the #B117 #covidvariant which is much more transmissible & a bit more “lethal”.

Do you realise, & accept, what will happen when classes are packed full of children again in a couple of weeks? 1/7
No children & very few staff or parents of school age children will be vaccinated by 8th March.

Do you understand what that means? Because your repeated rantings about masks are very ignorant & dangerous.

Is that your intention? 2/
Do you feel comfortable knowing that trying to stop children wearing masks at school will directly lead to more #COVID19 in pupils, teachers, parents & family members, ESPECIALLY if they are clinically vulnerable or extremely vulnerable?

Are you ok with that? 3/
Read 7 tweets
Die Stadt @Koeln liefert Deutschlands beste Daten zur Variantenausbreitung, testet seit mehr als einem Monat alle positiven Proben auf Mutanten.
Das Ergebnis ist eindrücklich, die Inzidenzentwicklung passt perfekt zum simplen Modell mit einer übertragbareren Mutante (#B117). 1/ Image
Das Verhältnis von Mutante zu Wildtyp wächst exponentiell, mit einem Tageswachstumsrate von ca. 7%, konsistent mit Beobachtungen aus anderen Ländern.
In anderthalb Wochen wird bereits die Hälfte der Fälle den Varianten zuzurechnen sein. Momentan sind es ein Drittel. 2/ Image
Der kölsche Lockdown reicht leider bei weitem nicht aus um die Verbreitung der Varianten aufzuhalten.
Die Zahl der absoluten Fälle wächst täglich um ca. 6% mehr. 3/ Image
Read 3 tweets
Brote de mutación #B117 en escuela primaria de Viena 16 infectados 4 profesores, 12 estudiantes. Comenzó con 1 maestro positivo a principios de la semana pasada; al final de la semana: +6 estudiantes. Test a todos los estudiantes y profesores el miércoles encontró 9+ #COVID19 .
2) ¿Es algo aislado? ¡No! Esto sigue a otro gran brote en otros lugares la semana pasada en otra región de Baja Austria. Las escuelas primarias se reiniciaron presencialmente principios de febrero.

3) Y luego están los casos claramente definidos impulsados por las escuelas en Quebec . Los casos de maestros y estudiantes crecieron cuando las escuelas abrieron.
Read 8 tweets
📍Elementary school outbreak of #B117 mutation in Vienna🇦🇹—16 infections—4 teachers, 12 students. Started with 1 positive teacher early last week—by end of last week, +6 students. Testing of all students & teachers on Wednesday found +9 more #COVID19.
puls24.at/news/chronik/w… Image
2) Is this isolated? No! This follows another large outbreak elsewhere last week at another region of Lower Austria. Elementary schools restarted in person in early February.
3) and then there is the clear cut school driven cases in Quebec 🇨🇦. Teacher and student cases only increased when schools open. Teacher and student cases fell during school break, while general population kept surging during holidays. Night and day.
Read 9 tweets
Interesting data from Denmark*

From mid November to mid February, experienced a huge surge then huge fall in #SARSCoV2 cases

Over same period, more comtagiois #B117 grew from <0.1% of genotyped cases to about 50%
I’m not sure what this means. Absolute numbers were decreasing, but country has been in a lockdown. They plan to start easing the lockdown slowly at end of Feb thelocal.dk/20210222/denma…
Also are in early stages of vaccination (like US) but moving deliberately to offer to whole population by mid-summer
Read 7 tweets
Fallzahlen in Dänemark steigen trotz verstärktem Lockdown, während #B117 anteilsmäßig den stärksten Sprung macht.
Man könnte sagen: das wurde so vorhergesagt.
Der selbe Trend passiert auch, wenn man die ganze EU betrachtet.
Das handelt sich also nicht um Cherry Picking des Landes/Selektionseffekt/"manipulieren mit Statistik"
Es ist ein definitiver Trend.
Von fallenden zu steigenden Zahlen.
Hierfür drei schöne Graphen als Beleg.
Mich würde hier wirklich Klaus "Mutanten haben keinen Effekt auf R" Stöhrs Erklärung interessiereren. @stohr_klaus
Read 4 tweets
Quick update on #B117 in Denmark:
Early data from week 7 (based on 2 days), suggests variant is now causing 57% of cases in Denmark. It was less than 4% in week 1.
And the overall number of #covid19 cases has now started to rise in spite of lockdown.
(files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv…)
The reason I keep tweeting these data?
1. Simply to follow through on this story from 3 weeks ago (sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/d…).
What we are seeing is exactly what scientists expected and said would happen. It is worth just showing that play out.
2. These data likely mirror situation in many countries, but Denmark has the sequencing operation to actually show what is happening, so it is worth following the situation there for clues.
Read 4 tweets
Notre analyse de la progression des #variants en France à partir de tests réalisés par le laboratoire CERBA et le @CHU_Montpellier est en preprint et en revue.

La carte régionale de la fréquence estimée des variants au 20 fév (scénario conservateur).

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
1/N Image
Nous avons analysé les facteurs de risques et, comme @SantePubliqueFr trouvons que la proportion de variants est plus élevée chez les plus jeunes.

Cela a aussi été décrit en Angleterre.

On ne peut pas encore trancher entre des raisons biologiques et épidémiologiques.

2/N Image
On retrouve moins les variants dans les tests issus de milieux hospitalier (patients #COVID19).

C’est logique car il y a environ 14 jours entre infection et hospitalisation.

Ignorer l'origine des échantillons, c'est sous-estimer la propagation actuelle des #variants !

3/N Image
Read 8 tweets
TEACHERS & STUDENTS Covid in Quebec🇨🇦—Active #COVID19 cases surged faster in teachers & students than Quebec public.

📌Pre-holidays, school cases surged faster than general population.

📌Schools closed for holidays—cases plummet

📌Winter break over—school cases rose again. 🧵
2) Furthermore, after Jan 18 2021, in what age group was there the fastest relative % increase in cases?

➡️ 17% relative increase in kids age 0-9 years.

➡️ Kids increase was much higher in 0-9 than any other age group.

Figure by @NickDrouin. Thank you sir.
3) We know #B117 is rising across Canada. If it’s B117, there is something funny with in the 0-9 age group.... the attack rate relative increase for B117 vs old strain were also the highest in the UK 🇬🇧 for age 0-9 than older ages. This is seen in both the shortcut B117 test...
Read 12 tweets
Wir hören immer: keine Sorge, #B117 wurde in UK, IE und PT unter Kontrolle gebracht.
Was wir nicht hören:
In den meisten EU-Ländern ist der Trend in letzten 2 Wochen wie in Deutschland - die Zahlen steigen wieder, und immer schneller. Genau wie man wegen Mutanten erwartet.
Ich habe diesen Trend durch Zufall entdeckt und bin ehrlich schockiert, dass ich darüber noch nicht gelesen habe.
Es ist fast überall das gleiche. R steigt genau wie man das wegen Mutanten erwarten würde.
Hier ist ein Link zur Grafik: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
Um den Trend vergleichbarer zu machen, habe ich oben nicht die Inzidenz geplottet, sondern die wöchentliche Veränderung.
Hier ist der enstprechende Inzidenz-Graph.
Dort ist der Effekt natürlich schwieriger zu erkennen, weil Trendumkehr von leicht fallend zu leicht steigend.
Read 5 tweets
TRIPLE WORRISOME—Data says the new variant that is now dominant strain in California:

📌spreads FASTER

📌evades antibodies from #COVID19 vaccines or prior infection

📌causes more severe illness.

➡️Scientist says “the devil is here” #B1427 / #B1429🧵
latimes.com/science/story/…
2) “In a study that helps explain the state’s dramatic surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths — and portends further trouble ahead — scientists at UCSF said the mutations that characterizes the homegrown CA should mark it as a “variant of concern” on par with those from 🇬🇧 , 🇿🇦 & 🇧🇷”
3) “The devil is already here,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, who led UCSF team of geneticists, epidemiologists, statisticians and other scientists in a wide-ranging analysis of the new variant, which they call B.1.427/B.1.429. “I wish it were different. But the science is the science.”
Read 22 tweets
Schulen sind sicher. Für Lehrer, Schüler und Eltern.

Und Schulen sind soooo unsicher, dass jetzt die Lehrer sofort geimpft werden müssen. Noch vor Haus-, Notdienst- und Kinderärzten (2. Gruppe noch nicht offen), vor Zahn- und HNO-Ärzten (kein MNS möglich). Ist ja dringend.
Versteht mich nicht falsch, LuL müssen schnell geimpft werden. Wegen der vielen Kontakte in dutzende Haushalte, wegen der Übertragung von Klasse zu Klasse und wegen des persönlichen Risikos. Richtig.

Dafür dass Schulen so sicher sind, ging es jetzt doch ganz schön schnell.
Und was ist mit den Kindern?

Leider, leider, leider kein Impfstoff. Tja, da kann man nichts machen.

Doch: Kleine Gruppen, Filter, Lüftung, Masken, Testung, ...
Read 17 tweets
DIE AGES UND DIE KINDER
AGES Infektionsepidemiologin Daniela Schmid im Interview mit @barbaratoth letzte Woche: "Wir hätten die Volksschulen nie schließen müssen." Na, eh ned. Das erledigt jetzt das Virus für uns. Und tobt sich in 13 (!) Schulen in Wiener Neustadt aus. #Thread👇 ImageImage
Was läuft den schief wird sie gefragt? Sowas zum Beispiel. Märchen, die sich gegen jede internationale Erkenntnis halten.👇 Image
Und in Kindergärtwn findet laut der AGEs ja gar nix statt. Schau ma mal....👇 ImageImage
Read 15 tweets
📍OUTBREAK OF #B117 AT SEVEN SCHOOLS—sudden outbreak of #COVID19 cases at a British Columbia 🇨🇦—all elementary and middle schools. Genetic sequencing shows #b117 in early cases linked to outbreak. Classes quarantined. All the schools still remain open. 🧵 cbc.ca/news/canada/br… ImageImage
2) British Columbia 🇨🇦 teachers are now incredibly worried by the latest sudden 7 school outbreaks, and demanding decisive actions.
3) British Columbia is having a major increase in transmission — and has the highest R in Canada 🇨🇦 currently.
Read 22 tweets
Es macht mich schlicht fassungslos, dass die Bauernverbände ausländische Saisonkräfte inmitten der größten Pandemie gern fünf Monate ohne Krankenversicherung schuften lassen möchte und die @cducsubt sie auch noch dabei unterstützen möchte. @hubertus_heil darf dem nicht zustimmen.
Die Leute werden ausgebeutet, häufig betrogen, kaum eine Behörde interessiert o kontrolliert die teils unmenschlichen Bedingungen, die Leute leben teils zusammengepfercht wie Tiere und dann sollen sie auch noch riskieren, die Behandlung für ne Coronaerkrankung selbst zu bezahlen.
Braucht man doch keine Phantasie um zu wissen, wie #B117 und andere Mutationen in den Massenunterkünften grassieren werden, und die lächerlichen Auflagen für die Unterkünfte kontrolliert doch eh keiner, damit den Arbeitgebern ja keiner das Geschäft mit der Ausbeutung vermiest.
Read 7 tweets
~90% SUCCESS AGAINST TRANSMISSION—the newest Israel 🇮🇱 study shows the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 89.4% against all lab confirmed infections—which show the vaccine may also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus that causes #COVID19. 👏
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2) In Israel, nearly half the population has at least 1 shot of vaccine. And 4 out of 5 infections during the study period in Israel were the #B117 variant from the UK. So it’s pretty good for B117 too.
3) The other recent Israel study says the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is 85% effective after 1st done and 75% for asymptomatic transmission — again just 1 dose after initial 2 week immunity building period.
Read 5 tweets
Sobering NYT cover tomorrow—almost 500,000 confirmed deaths from #COVID19 in the US.

Excess mortality in the US is even higher.

Don’t look away. Pandemic is not over. Be vigilant. #doublemask
2) US total excess mortality from the pandemic is meanwhile approaching almost 600,000 soon... sobering.
3) Meanwhile US has lost a full year of life expectancy in the first half of 2020 alone. 2.7 years of life lost for black Americans. 1.9 years lost for Hispanic Americans. 0.8 lost for whites.

Let that sink in.
Read 15 tweets
Kleines Corona-Zahlen Update 20.2.2021:
Neuinfektionen Deutschland (blaue Treppe):
- 7-Tage Schnitt 7205/Tag,
- 50.436/Woche, Vorwoche 53.063, -4,9%
- Rückgang in den letzten 7 Tagen praktisch zum Stillstand gekommen
7-Tage-R-Wert Deutschland (dunkelgrüne Treppe):
- in 8 Tagen von 0,81 auf 0,97 angestiegen
- Zeitpunkt für Lockerungen bei sicheren Inzidenzen rückt damit in weite Ferne (>6 Monate)
Covid-19 Sterbefälle Deutschland (schwarze Treppe):
- 7-Tage-Schnitt ggü. Vorwoche von 493 auf 422/Tag um -14,4% gefallen, 2964/Woche
- Wird noch 2 Wochen sinken auf 250-350/Tag, dann stagnieren und im März wieder ansteigen
Read 26 tweets

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