Thread by @Guy_Stallard

In late 2017 I was asked what the most economically stupid #brexit Ministers could negotiate

My response was one in which UK Goods and Agricultural exports faced significant non tariff barriers but EU imports to UK faced none. Why I was asked - answer “politicians feared queues/shortages that proved Project Fear was true - result would be UK business very challenged

In addition a stupid #brexit would be one in which UK Service export surplus disappeared because either UK no longer allowed to provide the service in EU or UK workers not allowed to work their without expensive working visas (up to 27 needed). EU/UK TCA has delivered this

And stupidity would also see key UK sectors like agriculture and social care lacking the required migrant Labour because of UK visa restrictions which means that produce rots with resulting bankruptcy or patients receive insufficient care

When I suggested this and my follow on point that UK would start to see a balance of payments crisis I was laughed at. Actually I look like I was visionary as this is where we are heading

The reason the Government has not done a cost/benefit analysis on its trade deal is because it cannot have the hole highlighted - at best it hopes that the tax increases/cuts in public expenditure that the #brexit deal will cause can be blamed on #COVID19

The reason UK did not go for EFTA/EEA or longer transition is because politics is 100% trumpeting economics and Tory MPs cannot admit that EU is a nearby economic powerhouse with whom an open trading arrangement is required

In the end my last tweet will arise but in the meantime many people will suffer economic hardship that would have been so easy to avoid

I mean trumping - !!!! Autocorrect

Based on some questions I am adding two extra points

Although the UK Government worried about tariffs because prices would rise in UK shops they were for many of us not the biggest concern with #brexit

Tariffs would have made everyone in UK poorer in terms of purchasing power - but arguably we did when voting for #brexit as no one credible in economic circles claimed it would make us more better off

However tariffs on UK exports can be mollified through exchange rate depreciation (which people in UK doubly worse off) but people not out of work because of loss of export markets

On the other hand non tariff barriers are bureaucracy and they just make trade harder so exporters find that although the cost of UK items to EU is no higher the customer thinks it is all too difficult and goes elsewhere

Only solution to this is to reduce price charged to EU customers to negate cost of NTBs which in turn reduces profit in UK and then in turn funds for pay increases and investment

On top of NTBs the UK Government has gone for toxic relationship route with EU and European Governments which means that EU customers despite the wonderful relationships UK suppliers have with them May start to not see us as close friends

The UK Government needed to love bomb EU countries but for politics in UK (red tops, Telegraph and Times) went the other way

The question we need to ponder is how do we stop this destruction - I believe Gove got it but sadly Frost does not seem to possess the required emotional intelligence However I am very wrong and he starts encouraging UK exports to EU

Time will tell but I am not hopeful

One final final point - non tariff barriers effect the prospects of those who are still working or still at school BUT tariffs make the retired worse off - hence given who supports Conservatives/Brexit you have the cynical answer on priorities