Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/5 - Canada – Apr 05 to Apr 11 –
#COVID19 epidemic situation shows green zones in NW Territ, Nunavut, Yukon, Labrador, N Brunsw and N Scotia; deteriorating elsewhere (red zones).
Forecasting 13 Prov/Ter:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/5 - Quebec is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.18), at medium level, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/5 - Ontario is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.15), at high levels, increasing in mortality too, from low to medium levels, for 7 more days.

4/5 - Saskatchewan is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/5 - British Columbia is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/5 –
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100...

7/5 –
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0