Thread by @JoshuaBHoe

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This will be a long one

I am going to answer @TomCottonAR argument about "under-incarceration," not because I have any illusion of changing his mind but because I want everyone to understand why he and the "tough on crime" crowd are wrong about crime and incarceration

1. Crime rates

Crime is down, violent crime is down, but homicides and domestic violence have spiked during #COVID19

Any claim this is the result of particular reforms doesn't make sense because the rates have increased uniformly across jurisdictions

theintercept.com/2021/02/21/202…

There are a lot of alternative explanations

a) The pandemic - Strain, stress, correlated unemployment, (maybe) lethal Domestic Violence under lockdown conditions as @Abt_Thomas put it:

counciloncj.org/news/550859/Ne…

b) Police illegitimacy - fter George Floyd’s murder there was a decrease in public trust in police and policing...As @Abt_Thomas put it:

theintercept.com/2021/02/21/202…

Gun sales: 19.2 million more guns were sold between January and June than during the same period in 2019. As Phillip Cook put it:

theintercept.com/2021/02/21/202…

2. Incarceration doesn't solve crime

Mr. Cotton assumes that more enforcement and incarceration is a solution, but it is not

a) Even accounting for incapacitation, incarceration causes more crime than it solves

b) Increased enforcement isn't the answer either, in fact the federal government tried to respond to the increase in homicides last year with "Operation Legend" - the result was an increase in incarceration BUT NOT A DECREASE IN HOMICIDES or CRIME

voanews.com/usa/despite-hi…

c) Also, and this is important, believe it or not, the police are not particularly good at solving crimes....especially crimes like the one Cotton is upset about

3. We most assuredly don't have an under-incarceration problem....

We are the most over-incarcerated country on the face of planet earth, we incarcerate more people - and for longer time - than ANYONE and far more than most combinations of countries.

4. We know what works:

a) Structural reform of the systems that generate insecurity and crime

As Adam Gelb put it

usatoday.com/story/opinion/…

b) Criminal justice reform works, in 34 states reform and declines in crime and recidivism worked hand-in-hand

brennancenter.org/our-work/analy…

c) we know homicide reduction programs work, when they are actually funded....when their funding gets cut, homicides increase

apolitical.co/en/solution_ar…

And let us not forget, what Mr. Cotton is actually asking for is to double down on a system that incarcerates black and brown people at a level way disparate to their proportion in the population

prisonpolicy.org/blog/2020/07/2…

5. Other bad arguments

a) The spike is not because of progressive prosecutors, you can see plenty of evidence of this on the feed of @JohnFPfaff

b) The spike is not because of bail reform

I answered this above but crime and recidivism decreased in New Jersey, Philadelphia, Kentucky, DC, and many other places after Bail Reform

The New York arguments are also fraudulent

courtinnovation.org/publications/b…

We also need a lot better from the press on this issue

fwd.us/wp-content/upl…

Anyway, the whole assumption that if crime increases that incarceration is the answer is deeply problematic and counterproductive.....we have to stop doubling down on long-failed solutions

theweek.com/articles/97515…

I have zero illusion that Tom Cotton or Tucker Carlson will stop saying these deeply troubling things, that is how they keep the outrage machine rolling.

But it is important that all of us out here in the world outside of their political bubble understand why they are wrong

FIN