Thread by @Aaron_Derfel

1) In addition to the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the U.K., there were tentative signs on Monday that three other variants are beginning to pop up in regions across Quebec. In this thread, I will assess what this means.

2) The B.1.1.7 variant is still the predominant one in Quebec, with 1,434 cases, up by five since last week. This doesn’t mean there were only five new cases of B.1.1.7, though. There’s still a backlog of thousands of cases to sequence genetically.

3) Apart from B.1.1.7, the Outaouais declared for the first time a B.1.351 case. This #COVID19 strain originated in South Africa and has been shown to be resistant to the AstraZeneca vaccine. Cases in the B.1.351 hot spot of Abitibi-Témiscamingue inched up by three to 131.

4) Montreal posted two new cases of the P.1 variant, which has swept through Brazil and caused massive deaths and hospitalizations. The Montérégie for the first time identified two P.1 variants, raising the total in the province to a modest six.

5) Also for the first time, Lanaudière confirmed a case of B.1.525, which arose in Nigeria and has been circulating in New York City. In total, the province has 13 such variant cases — again, a much smaller number than the B.1.1.7 tally.

6) However, Quebec has accumulated a backlog of more than 15,000 variant cases that have yet to be sequenced. So we’re far from knowing the breakdown in variants by region and genetic lineage. Other provinces have a much better idea of this.

7) Outside of Brazil, British Columbia appears to have reported the greatest number of P.1 cases. Alberta and Ontario are recording more P.1 cases than the so-called South African variant. What does this mean for Quebec?

8) For now, Quebec has counted more than 25 times as many B.1.351 cases as P.1, so perhaps the province has been spared the variant that flared up in Brazil. But if this is so, it would be small consolation because B.1.1.7 is multiplying in 10 regions across the province.

9) Quebec on Monday posted 543 more variant cases, raising the cumulative total to 16,716. Montreal reported the greatest number (135), followed by the Montéregie (67) and the Outaouais (63). The positivity rate for screened #COVID19 samples is 72.7%.

10) The upshot is the variants are driving Quebec’s third wave, as they are elsewhere in the world, and they’re proliferating across the province. Quebec’s current vaccine coverage (22.8% of the population partially inoculated) may not be yet be enough to counter their spread.

11) Meanwhile, the third wave is clearing having a negative impact on #COVID19 hospitalizations, which rose by 22 to 630. ICU stays inched up by three to 142. Santa Cabrini Hospital in Montreal is in the midst of an outbreak.

12) As you can see from the chart below, the McGill University Health Centre has begun to observe a slight uptick in #COVID19 hospitalizations. However, most of Monday's reported 22 hospitalizations are occurring outside the metropolis.

13) Three age groups are taking up most of the new #COVID19 hospitalizations: first and foremost, those in their 60s (down by 20 years from the first wave); followed by Quebecers in their 30s (five new admissions) and those in their 40s (four). Please see the chart below.

14) Provincially, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks jumped by 19 to 995. The biggest increase (526 to 540) occurred in the workplace. There was also a new outbreak at a Quebec City seniors’ residence, while the Hull prison outbreak increased by one to 55 among inmates.

15) On March 12, Quebec posted 753 #COVID cases. On Monday, April 12, the province announced more than double that total, 1,599. This surge, coupled with increased hospitalizations, should serve as a warning to anyone who thinks the situation is not dire in Quebec. End of thread.