The #WestAfricaWaterPlume is rather spectacular in its presentation this morning. Roughly the size of Mexico and growing rapidly - a massive river of moisture which has just reached Italy.
This view shows satellite estimations of rainfall. Again the European @ECMWF weather model appears to have massively underestimated this event. Also on the face of what we can see so far it is turning Eastwards - which is not what many models were predicting.
Here are the current ECMWF predictions as of now, at midnight today, and at midnight Saturday and Sunday.
This corresponding set of images extends the picture into Europe - showing the impact.
The impact includes a massive rain band from Spain to Belarus and beyond over the next 72 hours.
The shunting effect of the incoming wet air is interesting. A first rain band starts almost immediately as far east as Belarus, followed by the impact of the main event.
In this @zoom_earth live animation of satellite imagery from 10.30am to 13.30pm today it's pretty clear this shunting effect, similar to that in the 17th-19th April Sahara Transit event, is already underway.
And with respect to precipitation the four major models I follow are now in agreement. Here the CMC, GFS, KMA and Access-G for the next four days.
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