Keeping below 1.5°C requires rapid emission reductions at the global level.
What do scenarios imply for key regions?
In this thread, I show the fossil CO₂ emissions in key regions. These scenarios do not include equity considerations, these are cost-efficient pathways.
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2. In the OECD, fossil CO₂ emissions are are already in a decline.
On average, from 2020, a 44% reduction by 2030 & 95% by 2050. This requires accelerating climate action beyond current levels.
3. Asia is a big challenge. Emissions are growing strongly now, but has to drop by 47% from 2020 to 2030 & by 88% to 2050.
This requires a dramatic reversal of current trends. In many respects, this makes the challenge harder in Asia (developing) compared to OECD (developed).
4. Latin America has reductions of 34% from 2020 to 2030 & 100% by 2050.
Latin America has considerable CO₂ removal, by BECCS here, because of the large potential. On top of this, there is afforestation (not shown).
In cost-effective pathways, Latin America goes zero first!
5. Middle East & Africa has reductions of 37% from 2020 to 2030, 80% by 2050.
There is also considerable CO₂ removal potential (BECCS) in this region, though large spread across models.
Big challenges for parts of this region given the need for development (Africa).
6. Eastern Europe & the former Soviet has reductions of 50% from 2020 to 2030, & 92% by 2050. These are among the most rapid reductions in models.
This region also has significant potential for BECCS (& afforestation).
7. Two points worth noting:
* These are cost-efficient pathways, no equity considerations. This is a problem with current scenarios.
* This is fossil CO₂ emissions, LUC not included here (because I do not have historical data by region for LUC so could not show recent trends).
8. One of the reasons I am skeptical we can reach aggressive climate targets, is the ability to get the transition happening so fast in developing regions (eg Asia). Or getting OECD to go even faster, to give space for other regions.
cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
9. That was it... Just giving some background on regional reductions, according to integrated assessment models.
/end
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