Thread by @MarriottNigel

WECA Mayor count takes place today covered by @adam_ldr @StephenSumner15

I've updated my forecast based on the PCC counts yesterday (Orig FC here bit.ly/3uqY0Uu). PCC had an IND candidate but WECA doesn't.

My FC of 1st prefs is unchanged, CON lead by 5pts.

But ... /1

... PCC saw 51% of eliminated candidates votes passed to LAB & CON as 2nd prefs.

This is high for an SV election.

I haven't any other SV election exceed 43%. Normally it's less than 40%.

Reason appears to be twofold.

Bristol T/O was higher than expected (54% of WECA) ...

/2

... compared to 51% of WECA in 2017.

Additionally, the Green vote was very good in Bristol & it's very plausible that Green voters are giving Labour 2nd prefs in much higher numbers.

As charts below show, it seems CON 2nd prefs are coming from LD & IND.

For my revised ...

/3

... FC, I've assumed that CON will get 60% of IND PCC votes which is why they still have a 5pt 1st pref lead.

2nd prefs on scale of PCC will give LAB an easy victory.

BTW, 60% of all votes in B&NES in Bristol & 66% in S.Gloucs did not give a 2nd pref or were rejected.

/4

So will LAB win on 2nd prefs or will the CON vote hold up?

Or have WECA voters voted completely differently to their PCC votes in which what I've said here is bollocks!

What will it happen? Hopefully @adam_ldr can keep us updated!

/end

Ok 1st prefs are in.

It's an easy victory for LAB on 2nd prefs.

What's notable is that LAB's vote share was a scenario I looked at but the CON vote share is poor no question.

It would seem B&NES is the council that really delivered for LAB and not for CON here.

@adam_ldr

Worth remembering that the IND candidate from 2017 endorsed the LAB candidate in this election. Is that why CON underperformed and LAB did better than expected?

Updated vote history for WECA here.

LD & GRN in line with my forecast but CON definitely underperformed and LAB benefitted.