Independent statistician using data to understand our world & to predict the future. Currently focused on pay gaps, diversity, elections, forecasting, surveys.
This the 59th presidential election in USA and the 56th competitive one.
3 elections saw a candidate elected unopposed 1789, 1792, 1820.
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Of the 55 competitive elections, 36 saw the winner win a majority of both the electoral college (EC) & popular vote (PV).
One, 1800, needed a contingent election in the House of Representatives as well, an oddity that led to the 12th Amendment that could play a part in 2020.
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Feb 13, 2020 • 24 tweets • 14 min read
If this goes viral, I'm claiming the credit for the hashtag!
They were preceded by decades of debate on the use & misuse of P-values & the UK's relationship with the EU.
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Dec 1, 2019 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Are we going to see a repeat of #GE2017 ? In my Friday post marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk… summarising latest poll trends, I said Labour need to focus on C2DE, Leavers & Lib Dems.
With the polls we've had over the weekend, this thread summarises what I am seeing. /1
CON-LAB lead is unchanged from the start of the election since both LAB & CON are up 7 pts. If this remains the case, it will be a Conservative majority.
Note figures for the latest week includes some from end of last week. My week is defined to be Thurs-Weds. /2
As before, I've compared latest polls to election results from GE74 to #GE17 & broken the data down by region, #GE2017, #Brexit & class.
Full details in the blog but here are the key pts. /1 #ConservativeParty are back to #GE2017 levels in all regions. Votes are being redistributed from remainers to leavers and the key to a majority is the efficiency of this transfer. /2
Nov 28, 2019 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Some excellent points here.
MRP is simply a cleverer model for turning voting intention data into seats.
If you have incorrect polling data, it will cleverly turn that into incorrect seats with more precision.
I had a clever model in #GE17 and look how that turned out! /1
OK, if you want to follow the #conservativeleadership race, here is a summary of the declared candidates so far. I've done this as a #Diversity analysis i.e. how much they differ from the norm but I also found it a very good way of getting to know their backgrounds @sundersays /1
Nominations close on June 10th so if people are interested, I will keep this up to date. Once the nominees are known, I will switch to a political summary instead e.g. voting record, years as MP, etc /2
Jan 13, 2019 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
How can Corbyn get into Downing St at the next election if one comes soon? Here is my thread looking at what needs to change from the 2017 #GeneralElection when #Labour won 262 seats. /1
To become the largest party, Labour needs to gain around 30 seats. It so happens that there are 29 seats where Labour is in 2nd place less than 3 pts behind the incumbent. 21 are held by the #CONSERVATIVES, 7 by the SNP, 1 by #plaidcymru. /2