As before, I've compared latest polls to election results from GE74 to #GE17 & broken the data down by region, #GE2017, #Brexit & class.
Full details in the blog but here are the key pts. /1 #ConservativeParty are back to #GE2017 levels in all regions. Votes are being redistributed from remainers to leavers and the key to a majority is the efficiency of this transfer. /2
Nov 28, 2019 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Some excellent points here.
MRP is simply a cleverer model for turning voting intention data into seats.
If you have incorrect polling data, it will cleverly turn that into incorrect seats with more precision.
I had a clever model in #GE17 and look how that turned out! /1
OK, if you want to follow the #conservativeleadership race, here is a summary of the declared candidates so far. I've done this as a #Diversity analysis i.e. how much they differ from the norm but I also found it a very good way of getting to know their backgrounds @sundersays /1
Nominations close on June 10th so if people are interested, I will keep this up to date. Once the nominees are known, I will switch to a political summary instead e.g. voting record, years as MP, etc /2
Jan 13, 2019 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
How can Corbyn get into Downing St at the next election if one comes soon? Here is my thread looking at what needs to change from the 2017 #GeneralElection when #Labour won 262 seats. /1
To become the largest party, Labour needs to gain around 30 seats. It so happens that there are 29 seats where Labour is in 2nd place less than 3 pts behind the incumbent. 21 are held by the #CONSERVATIVES, 7 by the SNP, 1 by #plaidcymru. /2