Worth remembering that the IND candidate from 2017 endorsed the LAB candidate in this election. Is that why CON underperformed and LAB did better than expected?
Updated vote history for WECA here.
LD & GRN in line with my forecast but CON definitely underperformed and LAB benefitted.
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Why is no-one polling the West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election?
I've crunched the numbers & it looks like a genuine 5-way marginal between CON, LAB, LD, GRN & REF.
My forecast puts the Greens 1st & Tories 5th but it's so tight.
(thread) 1/5
WECA spans Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset & S. Glocs unitaries.
It is the most politically diverse area in England IMHO.
Over the last 9 WECA-wide elections, 5 different parties have topped the poll.
Labour are the incumbent party but are facing challenges on all sides.
2/5
I've used national polls in 4 ways to compare today with -
1. 2024 general elec with differential swing 2. 2024 general elec with ratio swing 3. 2021 WECA mayor elec with diff swing 4. 2021 WECA mayor elec with ratio swing
Parliament votes tomorrow to confirm that England will go into its 2nd #COVID19 lockdown from Thursday. Does the data show that it's necessary?
We know that deaths are rising and at present are on trend to overtake the April peak around the 3rd/4th week of November.
But ...1/n
... if cases are already in decline by now, then what will a 2nd lockdown do to help reduce deaths?
At best all it can do is accelerate an existing decline or at worse prevent cases from increasing again.
So are cases about to turn? Nationally, the picture is poised. /2
The 7 day centred moving average has turned but potential revisions to the last 7 days could reverse this (red triangles are a short CMA projection based on previous restatements).
The thing to note though is that the latest 7 day CMA is as of 26th October, 1 week ago.